Champions League final betting preview and tips
David John expects Dani Alves and Juventus to get the better of Real Madrid in the Champions League final.
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Juventus v Real Madrid (Saturday, 1945 BST, live on BT Sport)
It is hard not to have your expectations raised ahead of any Champions League final but Saturday’s encounter at Cardiff’s Principality Stadium has all the ingredients to be a game for the ages.
Whoever lifts the trophy will be safe in the knowledge they have created a slice of history to go down in footballing folklore as well as the record books.
Marginal favourites Real Madrid - playing in a third final in four years - are on the brink of becoming the first team to win this competition in successive seasons in a bid as well to register a first LaLiga/European double in 59 years.
Facing them is a venerable Italian rival who are pursuing their own remarkable achievement as victory would complete their own unique treble in a star-spangled 119-year history with the Scudetto and Coppa Italia already in safe-keeping.
It would be reasonable to expect such pressure to weigh heavily on both clubs but there are some broad shoulders both on the pitch and in the dugout so I readily anticipate all involved to rise to the occasion rather than shrink back into the shadows on what is forecast to be a wet Welsh night.
It is natural for punters and odds compilers to lean towards Real Madrid in the betting - human nature demands entertainment and few can match Zinedine Zidane’s men in full cry when it comes to that department.
They netted 106 times on the way to pipping Barcelona to domestic honours and racked up 32 more from 12 games on the way to the final of this competition with the indefatigable Cristiano Ronaldo banging in 10 of those to become the highest scorer in Champions League history.
Madrid’s number seven remains his side’s key figure without doubt despite worthy contributions from Isco, Karim Benzema, Luka Modric and Toni Kroos to name just a handful - you may not like it, but it now seems even more futile to criticise the club’s policy of hoovering up the latest raft of Galacticos.
Such depth means the outstanding James Rodriguez is limited to fleeting appearances from the bench in the bigger games while a marauding Gareth Bale has spent much of the season dealing with the after-effects of ankle surgery.
The Welshman has suffered further since the end of April so an appearance in his hometown could come from off the bench at best bearing in mind as well the phenomenal recent form of Isco.
Zidane feels it is not a case of ‘one or the other’ if both Isco and Bale are 100 per cent fit but it would be a brave call to throw the latter on from the start having not kicked a ball competitively since an El Clasico defeat on April 23.
While they have carried all before them in the final third to reach this point, Real have also conceded in 11 of the 12 fixtures to stress they are more than a little susceptible at the back.
Juventus might be renowned for their remarkable defensive prowess but that sort of vulnerability at this level can be exploited and it seems unlikely to expect anything less than at least a couple of gilt-edged chances being created for Gonzalo Higuain, Paulo Dybala and company.
As mentioned, all the fluency of the Old Lady going forward is founded on a steely resolve at the back with a handful of world-class stoppers massed in front of veteran keeper Gianluigi Buffon.
The 39-year-old has won everything in the game with his club bar this trophy and he won’t be presented with a greater opportunity of ticking this particular box now he stands on the brink of retirement.
One of those players directly in front of him, Giorgio Chiellini, paid a straightforward tribute to his vocal leadership and presence by saying: “Everything is simple when he is behind you.”
Few in the game would begrudge Buffon putting the seal on a wonderful career and it is that sort of confidence which can allow the outfield players to get on with their job in a quest to limit the Real Madrid strikers.
Those expecting another ‘thou shalt not pass’ display from the Italians having shut out Barcelona over two legs should perhaps take a glance at some historical trends.
Since the 0-0 draw in the 2003 final between Juve and AC Milan, all 13 games have contained at least two goals and 10 have seen both teams find the target.
The latter outcome is sure to be a popular investment at a shade of odds-on but there is a flip-side to that particular coin – at the very least, the law of averages suggests we might be a due a final where attacking verve is at last nullified and there is obviously scope, particularly in foul weather, for a blowout.
But let’s not be too downcast and I do predict some goals on the evening which leads me to a first financial interest.
Wing-back Dani Alves felt the time was right to fly the nest from Barcelona in 2016 and his decision has been fully vindicated with an outstanding season at Juventus.
He still possesses plenty of energy to gallop down the flanks and get into a threatening position and his goal-scoring contribution since the end of April now stands at three.
He might not be the worst bet in the world to claim Man of the Match honours but I prefer to take a tempting price on him coming up with an anytime assist – it need not even be quite as deft as the one which beautifully set up Higuain against Monaco.
In terms of the match outcome, I do like the chances of Juventus to prevail and will keep in step with cheering on our outright tip for the competition, recommended last autumn at 12/1.
As dominant as Madrid can be, the Italians match up well with them in all the right areas and they have improved immeasurably since suffering a 3-1 defeat in this fixture at the hands of Barcelona in 2015.
“We have to approach the game with great serenity and we go there with greater knowledge and conviction than two years ago,” said manager Massimilano Allegri.
Juve on that fateful night in Berlin certainly seemed like they would benefit from the experience and have been working and growing ever since for this moment.
Allegri has gone from an unpopular appointment following Antonio Conte’s exit to crafting a team on the cusp of legendary status and I don’t think they will squander this golden opportunity to bring home the main prize to Turin.
Prediction: Juventus 2-1 Real Madrid
Opta facts:
This is the 19th encounter between Juventus and Real Madrid – all in the European Cup/Champions League, making this the second-most played fixture in the history of Europe’s premier club competition after Bayern Munich v Real Madrid (24).
The head-to-head record between Juventus and Real Madrid is perfectly balanced, with eight wins each and two draws. However, their only previous meeting in the Champions League final saw Real Madrid win 1-0 in 1998 thanks to a Pedrag Mijatovic goal.
Real Madrid have reached the European Cup/Champions League final for the 15th time, four more than any other club (AC Milan, 11). They’ve won 11 of the previous 14, again more than any other team in history. In fact, they’ve won each of their last five finals in the competition, last losing in 1981 against Liverpool.
Meanwhile, Juventus have won only two of their eight European Cup/Champions League finals (25%), the lowest win rate of any team to have featured in at least five finals. They’ve lost their last four (1997, 1998, 2003, 2015).
Juventus could become the ninth team to achieve the treble league-domestic cup-European Cup/Champions League, the first since Barcelona in 2014/15 and only the second Italian club in history after Inter Milan in 2009/10.
Meanwhile Real Madrid will attempt to become the first team since AC Milan (1989, 1990) to win back-to-back European Cup/Champions League trophies.
Real Madrid have reached the final for the third time in four seasons, that’s as many final appearances for the Madrid club in the competition as in the previous 22 European Cup/Champions League campaigns.
Juventus are the only unbeaten team in this season’s Champions League (W9 D3). They are the first team since Atlético Madrid in 2013/14 to reach the final without losing a single game. o In fact, no team has lifted the Champions League trophy without suffering a single defeat since Manchester Utd did it in 2007/08.
Juventus have conceded only three goals in 12 Champions League games this season. Only one team had reached the final with fewer goals conceded under the current format (since 2003/04), it was Arsenal in 2005/06 (2).
Real Madrid have scored in every single one of their 12 games in the Champions League this season (32 goals, most prolific attack) but have also kept only one clean sheet; it was against Atlético Madrid in the semi-final first leg (3-0).
In fact, Real Madrid have conceded the opening goal in five of their six knockout games this season whilst Juventus have never trailed at any point in this season’s knockout phase.
Fourteen of Real Madrid’s last 15 Champions League goals have been scored from the 42nd minute onwards.
If he plays, Gianluigi Buffon will be the third oldest player to feature in a European Cup/Champions League final (39 years and four months) after Dino Zoff (41 years and two months in the 1983 final) and Edwin van der Sar (40 years and six months in the 2011 final).
Dani Alves has scored more goals (10) and delivered more assists (25) than any other full-back in the Champions League since his debut in 2007/08. If he plays, it will be his 100th game in the competition and would become only the second Brazilian player to reach that milestone after Roberto Carlos.
Gonzalo Higuain has scored four goals in 26 Champions League knockout games (0.15), as opposed to 13 goals in 38 group games (0.34). This is nevertheless his most prolific campaign in the competition (5 goals).
Cristiano Ronaldo has reached the 10-goal mark for the sixth consecutive Champions League campaign – no other player has done it on more than two consecutive seasons (Messi, Van Nistelrooy). He’s also played more than any other outfield player in this season’s competition (1110 minutes).
If he plays, this will be Ronaldo’s fifth European Cup/Champions League final. Only three players have featured in more: Paolo Maldini, Paco Gento (8), Alfredo Di Stefano (7).
Ronaldo or Sergio Ramos could become only the second player to score in three different European Cup/Champions League finals after Alfredo Di Stéfano, who found the net in five different finals. Ronaldo has netted three goals in four competitive matches at the Principality Stadium, all with Manchester Utd.
Alvaro Morata or Mario Mandzukic could become only the third player to score in the European Cup/Champions League final for two different teams after Velibor Vasovic (Partizan Belgrade, Ajax) and Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester Utd, Real Madrid). Morata netted for Juventus in the 2015 final whilst Mandzukic scored against Dortmund in the 2013 showpiece.
If he plays, it will be Isco’s 50th Champions League game. He’s only scored one goal in his last 31 outings in the competition, it was against Atlético Madrid in this season’s semi-final second leg.
Zinedine Zidane could win his second Champions League in only his second season in European competition as manager, the first to achieve such a feat since Dettmar Cramer with Bayern Munich (1975, 1976). Zidane was part of the Juventus side that lost against Real Madrid in the only previous Champions League final between both teams (1998).
Massimiliano Allegri is also taking charge of his second Champions League final as manager after his defeat against Barcelona in the 2015 final. He could become the eighth Italian manager to win the European Cup/Champions League, more than any other nationality.
Three of the last five Champions League finals have gone to extra-time, including two which have been decided on penalties.
Only one of the last 25 European Cup/Champions League finals has ended 0-0, whether after 90 minutes or extra-time. It was in 2003, when AC Milan beat Juventus 3-2 on penalties.
This is only the fifth European Cup/Champions League final to be played in the month of June after 1956, 1959, 1971 and 2015.
There has been 3.02 goals per game scored in this season’s Champions League (375 in 124 games), the highest ever average in the competition’s history (since 1992/93).
Wales are hosting their first ever European Cup/Champions League final. They are the 16th country to do so.
Posted at 0915 BST on 01/06/17.
