Jake Pearson previews the Premier League clash between Burnley and Southampton, picking out his best bets and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt James Ward-Prowse to have one or more shots on target at 1/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
1pt 4-6 total match cards at 17/10 (William Hill)
Burnley began life after Sean Dyche with a relatively positive performance away to West Ham at the weekend, playing well for the majority of the first half and frustrated not to have gone into the break two goals to the good – Maxwel Cornet dragging his penalty wide.
David Moyes’ men responded well in the second period and were deserving of their equaliser, but a point moves the Clarets closer to safety, and a similar performance at home to a Southampton side who, prior to the weekend past, had been in dire form, could yield another positive result.
The Saints arrived into their fixture against top-four hopefuls Arsenal on a run of five Premier League matches without victory, including a 6-0 hammering at the hands of Chelsea directly prior.
Ralph Hasenhüttl’s men demonstrated perhaps their most defining trait however, their unpredictability, inflicting a third successive defeat on the Gunners.
Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Thursday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Burnley 17/10 | Draw 12/5 | Southampton 6/4
With Southampton having nothing to play for, backing either team to win is difficult, but there is a good price available in the player shots market, focusing on a player who has been the Saints’ standout man for the vast majority of the campaign.
JAMES WARD-PROWSE is Southampton’s joint-top scorer this season with seven goals, and even money about the set-piece specialist to have ONE OR MORE SHOTS ON TARGET appeals as generous.
The England midfielder is averaging 1.35 shots per game, 0.63 on target, and has registered six shots on target across his last 12 league matches, including one in his last outing.
Add into the mix the fact that he is on free-kick duty, as well as penalties, and a 50% chance of him hitting the target looks a little low.
Also worth a look are the card markets, and a price of 17/10 about 4-6 TOTAL CARDS with William Hill piques interest.
These two sit inside the top half of the league in terms of yellow cards received this term, and with plenty on the line for Burnley, this game shouldn’t be lacking in passion.
The card spread in this fixture is currently at 3.5, with most firms pricing Over/Under 3.5 cards as pick ‘em.
Hills have Under 4 cards priced up at 13/20, which is far too short, and means there is value in backing the other side.
By distributing 3.5 we can ascertain probabilities of 19% that there are exactly four cards shown, 13% that there are five cards shown, and 8% that there are six cards shown.
Those probabilities therefore imply just under a 40% of 4-6 cards being shown, which is more likely than the 37% implied by 17/10 – and gives us an EV (Expected Value) of +7.48%.
Considering also that it is a bet that would have landed in nine of Southampton’s away fixtures and it is certainly a price worth getting onside.
Burnley v Southampton best bets and score prediction
- 1pt James Ward-Prowse to have one or more shots on target at 1/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
- 1pt 4-6 total match cards at 17/10 (William Hill)
Score prediction: Burnley 1-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1930 BST (18/04/22)
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