Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets for Matchday 2 of the Bundesliga season, with three value goalscorers in focus.
Football betting tips: Bundesliga
1pt Joe Scally to score anytime in Schalke v Borussia Mönchengladbach at 10/1 (General)
1pt Jude Bellingham to score anytime in Freiburg v Dortmund at 7/1 (General)
1pt Dani Olmo to score anytime in RB Leipzig v Köln at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
Schalke v Borussia Mönchengladbach
- Saturday, 17:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Football
Schalke were well beaten by Köln in their first game back in the Bundesliga, and it's a derby contest as they welcome Borussia Mönchengladbach in Saturday's late kick-off.
Mönchengladbach performed well in their 3-1 victory over Hoffenheim, recording 18 shots - eight of which were on target - and 1.92 xG.
Even more impressive was the fact that - despite conceding - they limited the opposition to just two shots and 0.08 xG. It puts them in a good position against a Köln side who struggled to get going last time out.
Now we could go for the 6/5 on an away win - and I wouldn't put anyone off doing so - but I'm always a little reluctant looking at results when it comes to recently promoted teams in their first home contest.
Instead, we're gambling on the huge 10/1 available for JOE SCALLY TO SCORE ANYTIME. He was a player I had my eye on in this market last season but he's seemingly become more attack minded under Daniel Farke.
He had two shots in that convincing win over Hoffenheim with his second effort striking the crossbar. What is eye-catching is how advanced he was for a full-back to have that effort towards goal.
The above screenshot highlights where that shot was taken from. It came as a result of a counter attack - a huge possibility this weekend given they are the away team - and he was well inside the box when shooting.
Scally's two efforts accumulated to 0.08 xG. If he repeats that sort of showing in every game he will finish the campaign with a few goals on his tally.
RB Leipzig v Köln
- Saturday, 14:30 BST
Köln's victory over Schalke on opening weekend was a convincing one. The 3-1 scoreline doesn't do their actual attacking output justice - they had 31 shots and 4.09 xG.
They also limited their opponents to 0.21 xG, despite the fact they managed to get onto the scoresheet. However, a trip to Leipzig should be a completely different story.
Leipzig were held away at Stuttgart but were unfortunate not to win the game. A total of 27 shots saw nine of those on target and a sizeable xG tally of 2.20.
You'd back Leipzig to win this one but at 4/9, the value just isn't there. Even going for over 3.5 goals is 6/4 - which isn't too bad based on showings last week - but a goalscorer provides the better value.
At 3/1, there is appeal in taking DANI OLMO TO SCORE ANYTIME. He was unfortunate not to find the net in his last game.
The attacking midfielder had a huge tally of six shots against Stuttgart, two of which were on target. A focus on Christopher Nkunku, Andre Silva and now Timo Werner means that Olmo should continue to get opportunities - and potentially go under the radar when doing so.
Olmo netted three goals in an injury hit 21/22 season that only allowed seven Bundesliga starts. His xG/95 figure was 0.26 across the course of that disrupted campaign.
The odds show how fancied Leipzig are for a home victory - not just the short price in the outright market but also the 2/5 that they net 2+ - and the strikers are floating around the 6/4 mark to score.
Instead, it's worth siding with Olmo as he looks to enjoy a campaign free from injury.
Freiburg v Borussia Dortmund
- Friday, 19:30 BST
It should be a highly-entertaining game on Friday night as Freiburg welcome Borussia Dortmund.
The hosts hit four in a convincing win over Augsburg on opening weekend, while Dortmund secured a 1-0 victory against Bayer Leverkusen - although the 2.50 to 1.29 xG scoreline shows it should have been more.
The Infogol model rating this one as a 45% chance of over 3.5 goals shows the type of game we should be in for. The Sky Bet Championship game on at the same time is at 16% - the better viewing can be found here.
Rather than take the shorter prices on offer - it's 6/4 that we see four or more scored - it's worth delving into the goalscorer market to find our first of three for the weekend's action.
At 7/1, the value comes in backing JUDE BELLINGHAM TO SCORE ANYTIME. The midfielder had three shots - one on target - in that win on Sunday.
The central midfielder scored three last season but the 4.97 xG on his tally highlights that there should have been a few more. That translates to an xG/95 of 0.16 - a decent number for a player in his position.
The campaign kicked off with 0.10 xG from his three shots, not a huge amount, but enough for us to know that he will be involved.
The season reset means that goalscorer prices are higher - the 7s available is just too big.
Bundesliga: Matchday 2 best bets
- 1pt Joe Scally to score anytime in Schalke v Borussia Mönchengladbach at 10/1 (General)
- 1pt Jude Bellingham to score anytime in Freiburg v Dortmund at 7/1 (General)
- 1pt Dani Olmo to score anytime in RB Leipzig v Köln at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
Odds correct at 1040 BST (11/08/22)
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