Football betting tips: FA Cup
2pts Anis Mehmeti 2+ shots at 7/4 (bet365)
0.5pts Anis Mehmeti 3+ shots at 6/1 (bet365)
West Ham went into the FA Cup third round clash with Bristol City having only lost two of their previous 14 games.
In the Premier League, the Hammers are four unbeaten, taking 10 points from the 12 on offer and not conceding a single goal across those games with Brighton, Arsenal, Manchester United and Wolves.
It’s this form which has hoisted David Moyes’ side to sixth, top of the pile in a congested mid-section of the top flight table.
West Ham raced into the lead against Championship side Bristol and it looked like they were going to cap a successful festive period off with a place in the fourth round.
A sluggish start to the second half was capitalised on by Tommy Conway in what proved to be a costly afternoon.
The injuries to Jarrod Bowen and Lucas Paqueta are worse than initially expected with the pair now facing a spell on the sidelines.
Bowen is his side's top goalscorer with 14 goals in all competitions, Paqueta was enjoying a standout season with a hand in 10 goals.
Moyes’ well drilled side will miss the pair's razzle dazzle and their absence could not have come at a worse time with Mohammed Kudus away at AFCON and Michail Antonio injured.
What are the best bets?
ANIS MEHMETI has started as many games on the bench (11) as he has played from the off. The mercurial winger has made the XI in each of the Robins last seven games though.
A standout performer at Wycombe, it has never been a question of his ability. Mehmeti was maybe set back by the managerial change and allowed some time to adapt to the jump up in standard.
The Albanian winger isn’t going to let his chance pass him by, adopting a shoot on sight approach.
He has had 19 attempts, scoring one, in his last seven starts which is an average of 2.71 per game. Mehmeti has had 2+ SHOTS in five of those games and backing him to cover this line appeals on Tuesday.
At 7/4, bet365’s price stands out, it is at odds with other firms.
I am also going to be a little greedy and tout the same player to have 3+ SHOTS, a feat he managed at the London Stadium.
It is worth noting only Sheffield United and Luton have conceded more shots then West Ham domestically. Away from home, the Hammers are especially porous, shipping 18.6 per game.
The Robins had 11 in the capital and have hit double figures in 70% of their last 10 fixtures.
BuildABet @ 85/1
- Under 2.5 goals
- Anis Mehmeti to score from outside the area
- Emerson Palmieri 3+ tackles
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
Without two of their creators-in-chief, it is difficult to see the visitors creating too much. I would not be surprised to see under 2.5 goals click again in the replay, as was the case last game.
A third of the 24 shots Mehmeti has hit in the Championship have come from outside the box. His goal came from within it but with an xG of 2.06 generated in total, backing him to score from range appeals.
Emerson Palmieri tops the Hammers tackling charts (2.8 per game). He completed two in London but with the onus on the hosts to attack here could better that tally.
Team news
The hosts have no fresh injury concerns to contend with which could see Liam Manning name the same XI that earnt the replay.
Bristol City have been in action since, losing 2-0 to Preston and although Taylor Gardner-Hickman was withdrawn in both those games, the central midfielder should keep his spot in centre midfield ahead of Matty James.
The absence of Paqueta (calf) and Bowen (ankle) cannot be understated with Kudus (AFCON) and Antonio (knee) also unavailable. Between them, the quartet have scored 31 of West Ham’s 41 goals in all competitions this term.
Moyes will likely turn to out-of-favour duo Said Benrahma and Pablo Fornals alongside James Ward-Prowse in attacking midfield. Upfront Danny Ings may spearhead the attack but with only four starts to his name Moyes may opt for 19-year-old Divin Mubama.
Predicted line-ups
Bristol City: O'Leary; Tanner, Vyner, Dickie; Bell, Williams, Gardner-Hickman, Pring; Knight, Mehmeti; Conway.
West Ham: Fabianski; Johnson, Ogbonna, Zouma, Emerson; Alvarez, Soucek; Benrahma, Ward-Prowse, Fornals; Mubama.
Odds correct 1325 GMT (15/01/24)
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