Jake Pearson previews Brighton's hosting of rock-bottom Burnley on Saturday afternoon, picking out a best bet and a score prediction.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Brighton -2 on the corner handicap at evens (Sky Bet)
Brighton arrive into this fixture against bottom-of-the-league Burnley having won just one of their last six matches in all competitions, but as is usually the case with the Seagulls, they may count themselves unlucky to be in such a position.
A 2-0 loss away to Manchester United in midweek may have been a particularly bitter pill to swallow for Brighton as, though by looking at the raw statistics from the match – Man United won the xG battle 2.49–1.14 – you would be forgiven for thinking it was a deserved home win, that does not tell the whole story.
The game hinged on Lewis Dunk’s 54th minute red card. In the first half Brighton recorded 61% of possession, took eight shots to United’s three, and were winning the xG battle 0.78–0.49.
After being reduced to ten men – though it must be said Cristiano Ronaldo did put United in the lead just prior – Brighton were second best, but once again, when on equal terms, they demonstrated their ability to not only compete with, but actually outplay, the league’s elite teams.
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Brighton 4/7 | Draw 14/5 | Burnley 21/4
Burnley are now seven points adrift of safety, and though the games in hand remain, so does the number one against the amount of wins the Clarets have recorded this season.
Sean Dyche’s men are getting closer to the Sky Bet Championship with each passing week, and things do not get any easier after a tricky trip to the Amex, facing Tottenham, Leicester and Chelsea in their four following league matches.
Spirited displays have been produced by Burnley of late, recording draws against Arsenal and Manchester United, before losing to Liverpool by a single goal in their last Premier League outing, but a stalemate at home to Watford in the midst of those ‘good’ results demonstrates exactly why they are in the position they are - only Norwich have scored fewer goals this season, while only two sides have created fewer chances per game according to expected goals (xG).
Football, particularly in the Premier League, has begun to evolve at an incredibly rapid pace in recent years, and Burnley’s inability to impose themselves on a game – they have the second-lowest average possession in the league – is becoming a real issue.
Only the current top three in the division have recorded a larger share of the ball on average than Brighton this season, so expect the Gulls to dominate proceedings at the Amex.
Because of their lack of control, Burnley have faced more shots on average than any other team in the league this season (16.9), whilst also making more blocks – some 1.2 more per game than the next-highest Newcastle.
Using shots as a pre-curser to corners is a the route taken in this fixture in terms of finding a bet, with the amount of blocked shots particularly significant – it goes a long way to explaining why the Clarets have averaged more corners against than any other side in the division.
Only six sides have average more corners per match than the Seagulls this season, which means a price of even money about BRIGHTON -2 CORNERS makes definite appeal – it is a spread they have covered in five of their 11 home matches against arguably superior opposition.
Brighton v Burnley best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Brighton -2 on the corner handicap at evens (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Brighton 2-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 0900 GMT (17/02/21)
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