Jake Pearson previews Brentford's trip to Brighton, picking out two best bets as well as a score prediction.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Brentford to win at 100/30 (Unibet)
1pt Brighton 20+ booking points at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
There is little to choose between Brighton and Brentford as we enter the half-way stage of the season, occupying 13th and 12th place respectively having both picked up 20 points.
Both sides have had good starts to the season to thank for their current nine-point cushion over third-bottom Burnley, but the Seagulls come into this fixture in inauspicious form to say the least.
It is now 11 Premier League matches without a win for Graham Potter’s men, a run that stretches back to September 19th, and while there may have only been three defeats in that period, picking up eight points from the last 33 available is the kind of form that will see Brighton dragged into a relegation battle.
Brighton’s recent blip is all the more bewildering when you factor in their defensive record, conceding the fifth fewest goals in the league this season, whilst also conceding the fourth fewest chances as per expected goals (xG).
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Sunday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Brighton 19/20 | Draw 23/10 | Brentford 16/5
It is at the other end of the pitch that the Gulls have struggled, netting just 14 times this season – only Norwich and Wolves have scored fewer – but whereas last season it was very much a case of not being able to finish their dinner, Brighton’s creativity is on the wane this term, creating the fifth fewest chances this campaign according to expected goals.
Brentford, meanwhile, are a tough team to assess, ranking in the top half of the table in terms of most goals scored and fewest goals conceded, and after a bad run of four successive defeats in October/November, the Bees look to have turned the corner.
Thomas Frank’s men have lost just one of their last five Premier League matches, picking up victories against Everton and Watford along the way, and despite a 2-0 defeat to Chelsea in the Carabao Cup quarter-final on Wednesday, the Bees will fancy their chances of returning to winning ways against their struggling hosts.
Both these sides are in false positions in the league according to Infogol’s expected table, Brighton occupying an expected spot of ninth, while Brentford sit in seventh – all based on expected points.
Given the similarities between the two sides then, it is a surprise to see Brighton priced up so short, with Brentford available at as big as 100/30.
When pricing up a football match, two teams that are evenly matched should be roughly 7/4 apiece (with both sides given 36% of winning). Factor in home advantage, which is worth roughly 8% (4% added to the home probability and 4% removed from the away probability) and we arrive at a 40% chance of a home win, and a 32% chance of an away win.
That makes the price about a BRENTFORD WIN and worth getting on side.
Another price that really catches the eye is the 5/6 about BRIGHTON 20+ BOOKING POINTS.
Two or more cards for the home side would see this bet land, and given the Seagull's have averaged the fourth-most yellow cards in the Premier League this season, it is a surprise to see the price so big.
The selection would have landed in 12 of Brighton’s 16 matches this season, including in six of the eight games played at the Amex.
Add into the mix as well the fact that Brentford’s opponents when the Bees play away from home average the joint-most cautions in the league (2.5 per game), and this bet looks even more appealing.
Brighton v Brentford best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Brentford to win at 100/30 (Unibet)
- 1pt Brighton 20+ booking points at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Brighton 0-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1415 GMT (23/12/21)
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