Football betting tips: Championship
19:45 - Preston vs Swansea
1pt Andrew Hughes to be carded at 11/2 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)
20:00 - Portsmouth vs Wrexham
1pt Lewis O'Brien to be carded at 7/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Lewis O'Brien to score anytime at 8/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Lewis O'Brien to score and be carded at 31/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Preston vs Swansea
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 19:45 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
ANDREW HUGHES has flitted between playing left back, left centre back in a three and centre back in a two throughout his career.
Looking at his disciplinary record, I assumed he started in the middle of a back four and gradually moved out towards the flank as a back five came into fashion. I assumed wrong.
That said, as Hughes' career has progressed, so too has the amount of cards he's picked up. Now into the twilight of his playing days, he is more cynical than ever.
Before moving to Preston, Hughes picked up 21 cards across 11 seasons playing in the National League (then the Conference Premier), League Two and League One. That is a cards per 90 average of 0.07 which translates to a price a little over 13/1.
Prior to moving to Preston, Hughes’ never picked up more than five cards in a season. Since, he hasn’t picked up fewer than five in a season and his cards per 90 average has gone up to 0.21 - an implied price of 15/4.
At 11/2, his price TO BE CARDED appeals on Wednesday, he has picked up five in 12 appearances this season.
Portsmouth vs Wrexham
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 20:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
LEWIS O’BRIEN's price of 8/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME looks a touch too big at Fratton Park.
He has netted three times in 12 appearances this season, set up two and picked up four cards. He’s all-action.
From a goalscoring point of view, based on his underlying numbers his price is simply too big on Wednesday. Be that his goals per 90 average (0.27), expected goals per 90 (0.20) or even expected goals from shots on target (0.32), 8/1 is simply too big.
The fact O’Brien is averaging 0.35 cards per 90 feels like an opportunity as well.
It makes his price TO BE CARDED worth a tout but also his price TO SCORE AND BE CARDED at 31/1. The latter has landed twice this season.
Odds correct at 1645 GMT (04/11/25)
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