Jake Pearson previews promotion-chasing West Brom's trip to face a struggling Barnsley side, picking out a best bet and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Both Teams to Score ‘NO’ at 20/23 (BetVictor)
Valérien Ismaël returns to Oakwell for the first time since leaving Barnsley, with his former side are in a very precarious position at present.
Second-bottom of the Sky Bet Championship, the Tykes’ transition away from Ismaël-ball has proved difficult, sacking his replacement Markus Schopp after just five months in charge.
Poya Asbaghi hasn’t exactly been able to turn things around since his appointment though, yet to win a match in the dugout, and considering there is now an eight-point gap between themselves and safety, League One looks to be where the South Yorkshire outfit will be plying their trade next season.
Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Friday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Barnsley 19/5 | Draw 5/2 | West Brom 3/4
For Ismaël, things haven’t gone quite to plan as far as his move to West Brom is concerned, the Baggies occupying third in the league at present but five points behind pace-setters Bournemouth, and with a few fans disgruntled at the style of football now on display at the Hawthorns.
Five Championship sides have scored more goals than West Brom this season, with eight of West Brom’s 11 victories coming by a single goal margin.
A solid base from which to build was the key to Ismaël’s success at Barnsley, and he has created a similar foundation at West Brom, the Baggies conceding just 17 goals this season – the fewest in the division.
No team has kept more clean sheets this term, while the Baggies have conceded more than once on just four occasions, and two of those were their two opening matches.
After a recent dip in form, going four games without a win, Ismaël’s side come into this match on the back of successive victories, beating Coventry and Reading, and deservedly so according to the expected goals (xG) figures – COV 0.88-1.53 WBA, WBA 3.11-0.55 REA.
Given the Baggies have conceded just one goal in their last four matches, siding against goals is the recommended way to approach this match.
Only games involving Birmingham and Hull have seen BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE ‘NO’ land on more occasions than West Brom matches, and taking recent form into account, this bet would have landed in six of the Baggies’ last eight matches (75%).
In fact, West Brom’s last eight matches have averaged just 1.38 goals per game.
Both teams have scored in 50% of Barnsley matches this season, but only in 45% of games at Oakwell, and given the Tykes have also failed to find the back of the net in 45% of their matches this season, this is a theme worth backing to continue.
The selection may be odds-on, but there is every reason to believe it should be shorter than the best price of 20/23 that BetVictor are currently offering.
Barnsley v West Brom best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Both Teams to Score ‘NO’ at 20/23 (BetVictor)
Score prediction: Barnsley 0-1 West Brom (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1230 GMT (15/12/21)
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