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Football betting tips: Women's World Cup 2023
1pt Rachel Daly 1+ shot on target at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
1pt Alessia Russo 2+ shots on target at evens (SkyBet)
1pt Sam Kerr to score anytime at 29/10 (William Hill)
There was joy at the final whistle as England's 2-1 win over Colombia sent them through to a third successive World Cup semi-final, but are the Lionesses' bogey team set to spoil the party on home turf.
Australia versus England has the makings of a classic at Stadium Australia and with a late morning kick-off for UK-based fans, you won't need that alarm clock for this one.
In what has to be regarded as the weaker half of the draw, both teams have made it through to the last four without setting the world on fire in terms of quality.
The co-hosts started weakly in their quarter-final with France before a more convincing finish to normal time, ultimately advancing in a dramatic shootout, while England looked sharper against Colombia than in a nervy display against Nigeria, but still far from their imposing best.
And who could forget the shock 2-0 defeat that Australia dealt Sarina Wiegman and co. back in April at Wembley?
The Matildas became the first, and so far only team to beat England under their Dutch boss, ending a 30-game unbeaten run with goals from Sam Kerr and Charlotte Grant.
Only one side can make their debut in a World Cup final and the stakes are at their highest.
What are the best bets?
I don't foresee many goals in this one, but by the looks of it, nor do the bookmakers. We can forget about the goals under/over market as there's very little that catches the eye - and indeed, I've had to get creative here.
The best angle I've found involves England's jack of all trades, with RACHEL DALY 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET signalling a glint of opportunity among slim pickings, odds-wise.
The Aston Villa striker turned England left-back found much more joy going forward once England changed to a back three, finding space on the flank.
So far, she is averaging 1.56 shots on target per 90 minutes - England's best return bar Alessia Russo.
But in even simpler terms, punting on the WSL's top goalscorer this season to test the goalkeeper just once in 90 minutes is not a bad shout at evens.
Talking of Russo, she has so far averaged 2.56 shots on target per 90 minutes and has also benefitted from England's reinvigoration, finding the the net twice in three games against China and Colombia.
To get any value, you have to jump to ALESSIA RUSSO 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET, but at evens again, there are certainly worse shouts than backing the new Arsenal signing.
But what's an England World Cup campaign without a little drama? Australia, the side who got one over on them earlier this year, are an interesting nemesis. At Stadium Australia, they will have a fervent home crowd behind them and were given a huge boost with the news of Lauren James' ban extension.
SAM KERR TO SCORE ANYTIME is another option for us. Kerr scored in that Wembley win and with the World Cup poster girl out at 29/10 to net in 90 minutes, I do think bookmakers are being overly generous.
Granted, her gradual reintegration following a calf injury means her shooting stats are unremarkable so far, with two efforts off target after two cameos off the bench. But Tony Gustavsson has said he is ready to use his talismanic striker if she's fully fit and that could well translate to a more meaningful inclusion against the Lionesses, especially given how well she knows the England defence.
Two of England's starting centre-backs against Colombia, Jess Carter and Millie Bright, are Kerr's Chelsea teammates while she has faced the other - Manchester City's Alex Greenwood - a number of times in domestic action, netting a brace against her and Lucy Bronze in the 2022 FA Cup final.
With a price of near 3/1 available, the prospect of another Kerr goal against extremely familiar faces is definitely a prospect worth entertaining.
BuildABet @ 7/1
- Daly 1+ shots on target
- Russo 2+ shots on target
- Kerr 3+ total shots
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
We’ve outlined the reasoning behind the first two legs of this BuildABet already, but we don't need to chase that outside shout of a Kerr goal to get some value on this.
Even if the comeback Australia star finds her radar isn't quite at full accuracy yet, three shots - on or off target - still brings us out at an even 7/1. And remember, she's played less than 90 minutes football at this World Cup and hit two shots already - and she looks to be on her way back.
Score prediction: Australia 1-1 England (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Team news
England will be without forward Lauren James, who serves the second game of her two-match suspension after her red card for a stamp on Nigieria's Michelle Alozie in the round of 16.
Neither side look to be suffering from any fresh injury concerns after Sam Kerr made her return to the action from a calf injury in the round of 16.
Predicted line-ups
Australia: Arnold, Catley, Kennedy, Hunt, Carpenter, Foord, Cooney-Cross, Gorry, Raso, Fowler, van Egmond.
England: Earps, Greenwood, Bright, Carter, Daly, Bronze, Walsh, Stanway, Toone, Hemp, Russo.
Odds correct 1650 BST (14/08/23)
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