Jake Pearson previews the second leg of the Champions League quarter-final between Atletico Madrid and Manchester City, picking out his best bets and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Atletico Madrid 30+ booking points at 1/1 (Sky Bet)
Atletico Madrid certainly divide opinion when taking on Europe’s elite in the Champions League, their defensive mindset seldom making for an entertaining watch in terms of goalmouth action.
The side from the Spanish capital failed to muster a single attempt against Manchester City in the first leg at the Etihad.
On the other hand, that match was just the second time this season across the Premier League and Champions League that Pep Guardiola’s men have been restricted to less than 1.0 xGF (expected goals for) at home.
The fact that Atleti have never lost a European knockout tie at home to an English club would fill most teams with dread, but Manchester City are no ordinary English club, and it would be a huge shock were Guardiola’s men not to build on their one-goal advantage and progress to the next stage of the competition.
Atletico Madrid v Man City (agg: 0-1)
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Wednesday
TV channel: BT Sport 2
Atletico Madrid 7/2 | Draw 11/4 | Man City 3/4
Defensive nous and a strong implementation of the ‘dark arts’ is at the very heart of everything that Atleti do in this competition, particularly when faced with technically superior opposition, and the second leg of this tie at the Wanda Metropolitano will not be without its difficulties for Manchester City; a hostile atmosphere perpetuating potentially the most hostile team in world football.
With Atleti unlikely to take defeat, or even victory for that matter, without a fight (physical or otherwise), looking at the card markets could prove the most profitable betting avenue in this fixture.
Only four teams have picked up more yellow cards than Atletico in this year’s competition, and though admittedly they have played more games than most teams, they are still averaging more than two cautions per game, as well as a red card every three fixtures.
They are also third-top in terms of yellows in La Liga this term, an oddity for a team towards the top of the league – for context the league leaders Real Madrid have seen the second fewest. While no other side in the league’s top eight rank in the top ten for most cautions.
The Spaniards picked up three yellow cards in the first leg and could once again see a fair few names entering the notebook of referee Daniel Siebert, who incidentally has shown 102 yellow cards and three reds in 29 matches this season, and was in charge of Atletico’s home tie against Liverpool earlier in the competition, a game in which he sent off Antoine Griezmann.
There is the very real possibility that this game spirals out of control, particularly the closer Manchester City come to knocking out their hosts, and some unsavoury scenes could be forthcoming.
For that reason, taking the even money about 30+ ATLETICO MADRID BOOKING POINTS is recommended.
This bet would have landed in six of Atleti’s nine matches in the Champions League this term, and with the stakes even higher here, it should do so again.
Atletico Madrid v Manchester City best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Ateltico Madrid 30+ booking points at 1/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Atletico Madrid 0-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1600 BST (11/04/21)
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