Two of the Premier League's in-form sides meet in the early kick-off on Saturday, with Aston Villa hosting Newcastle. Jake Osgathorpe provides the best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Both Teams 20+ Booking Points at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1pt Newcastle to win and Both Teams to Score at 7/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
These two are flying.
Aston Villa are sixth - yes sixth - heading into the weekend having won six of an unbeaten seven, while Newcastle occupy third spot following three straight wins.
Both have European aspirations, meaning this is a huge game for the pair, which could see a high-energy, high-octane encounter with plenty of fouls.
Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
TV channel: BT Sport 1
Aston Villa 5/2 | Draw 12/5 | Newcastle 11/10
If there are fouls, there should be cards and that's the main play in this preview given the refereeing appointment, with BOTH TEAMS 20+ BOOKING POINTS looking overpriced at 11/8 with Sky Bet.
The same bet is odds-on in places, and I think even money is fair assessment given the stakes of the game, the record of both sides and the fact John Brooks is overseeing proceedings.
Overall this Premier League season, Aston Villa have received 2.0 cards per game and drawn 2.1 from their opponents, while Newcastle have racked up 1.8 cards per game and seen their opponents pick up 2.2.
Villa have received 2+ cards in 63% of contests, with the Magpies hitting 2+ in 55% of matches this season.
John Brooks has been excellent for card backers when reffing in the Prem, averaging 4.6 cards per game, so this has all the ingredients to be a card-laden affair. Brooks has seen this bet land in 50% of his top flight outings this season.
I'm also going to have a smaller play on NEWCASTLE TO WIN AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE at a juicy 7/2.
Yes, Villa are flying at the moment, but we cannot judge them solely on their basic form. A closer look at their seven match run shows that they have played six teams in the relegation battle plus a struggling Chelsea team.
They've had a kind schedule, and boy have the taken advantage of it, but in my mind this is a huge step up in terms of quality of opponent.
Newcastle are a legit top four team, and have performed like the third best side in the league all season long according to underlying data.
Only Manchester City and Arsenal boast a better xG process than Eddie Howe's men overall this season, while they are one of only four teams who hold a positive xG process when playing away from home.
They should be treated as one of the best teams in the league, and the last time Aston Villa played such a team they were carved open, shipping 3.4+ xG in back-to-back games against Arsenal and Manchester City.
The Magpies attack is firing too, despite missing key players, averaging 2.40 xGF per game across their five match winning streak, but they have conceded in four of those games as they have been playing a more open style of football.
A repeat could well be on the cards here, given Villa's recent attacking exploits and the form of Ollie Watkins, so I'm happy to back Newcastle to come out on top in a high-scoring game.
Aston Villa v Newcastle best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Both Teams 20+ Booking Points at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Newcastle to win and Both Teams to Score at 7/2 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Score prediction: Aston Villa 1-3 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Odds correct at 2230 BST (12/04/23)
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