Arguably the two most out-of-form teams in the Premier League meet as Aston Villa host Brighton. Jake Pearson has previewed the fixture, picking out a 2/1 best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Aston Villa most cards at 2/1 (bet365)
1pt Aston Villa most corners at Evens (Sky Bet)
Steven Gerrard will be in the dugout for the first time as the Aston Villa manager, with the former Liverpool player describing his decision to join the Premier League club as “an opportunity I couldn’t allow to pass me by”.
Opportunity or not, Gerrard has a tough job on his hands to arrest the slide at Villa Park, his new team having lost each of their last five Premier League matches.
Fortunately for ‘Stevie G’, he faces a Brighton side in a similarly poor run of form, now without a win in their last seven in all competitions, having started the season with four wins from their opening five.
After a ruthless opening to the campaign, the Seagulls’ old problems appear to be resurfacing, creating chances equal to 7.45 expected goals (xG) in their last six Premier League matches, but managing just five actual goals, drawing two blanks in that period.
Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
Aston Villa 7/5 | Draw 23/10 | Brighton 19/10
With both of these sides currently residing in the bottom seven in terms of chances created this season, Gerrard’s opening fixture as a Premier League manager may not go with the same bang that many of his appearances as a player did.
Under 2.5 Goals is odds-on however, and with Villa’s price to win the match having already shortened from 13/8 to 7/5 since Gerrard’s appointment, there is little appeal in betting in either market.
One market that does catch the eye though, is the bookings market, and specifically, betting on which team will be shown the most cards.
Now, only Newcastle have been shown more yellows than Brighton’s 27 this season – not including Robert Sanchez’ red card against Newcastle prior to the international break – but Villa are not far behind on 25.
Both sides are averaging more than two cards a game, while also conceding more than two a match. This is reflected in the fact that card line in this match set a four.
By taking the amount of cards Villa average at home, along with the amount of cards Brighton average when away, we arrive at 2.18 as a rough prediction of how many cautions the home side will be shown.
Reverse the process and Brighton’s card prediction comes out at 2.38.
Of course, this is a primitive way to predict the amount of cards in a match, but it does serve to inform us of how closely matched these two are when it comes to getting themselves into the referee’s notebook.
Brighton do come out on top and should therefore be favourites to be awarded more yellow cards, but not to the extent that they are, their price of even money implying a 50% chance they receive more cautions that the 33% implied by Villa’s price.
ASTON VILLA TO BE SHOWN MORE CARDS should be closer to 17/10, which makes the 2/1 on offer value.
Also making appeal is the even money on offer about ASTON VILLA TO TAKE THE MOST CORNERS.
Neither team are proficient corner winners, but Villa do show up better than Brighton in terms of corners won and corners conceded, while Brighton have only won the corner battle in one of their away matches this season, and that was against Brentford, who are second only to Crystal Palace in terms of corners won.
Most firms have Villa odds-on in this market, so the even money on offer with Sky Bet is a price worth getting on side.
Aston Villa v Brighton best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Aston Villa most cards at 2/1 (bet365)
- 1pt Aston Villa most corners at Evens (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Aston Villa 0-0 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1505 BST (18/11/21)
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