Liam Kelly has a best bet for Liverpool's trip to face Arsenal in the Carabao Cup semi-final second leg on Thursday, expecting the game to open up as it progresses.
Football betting tips: Carabao Cup
1.5pts Second half to be highest scoring half at 11/10 (Sky Bet, PaddyPower, Betfair)
Arsenal and Liverpool finally conclude their EFL Cup semi-final tie on Thursday night, entering this decider 0-0 on aggregate, with the winner facing the prospect of Chelsea in the final at Wembley.
The Gunners will be relatively fresh after the controversial postponement of Sunday's North London derby, but Liverpool enter the match-up on a high despite worries over scoring goals without Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah, beating Brentford by a comfortable 3-0 margin at the weekend (xG: LIV 3.59 - 0.33 BRE).
Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Thursday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Football
Arsenal 13/5 | Draw 5/2 | Liverpool 1/1
Concerns in that very area were heightened by Liverpool's showing in the first leg last week, failing to break down Arsenal after Granit Xhaka's early red card gave them a significant advantage in the game at Anfield.
As a result, it's hard to draw any concrete conclusions from the match, but there's plenty of evidence to suggest Mikel Arteta's side have a slightly better chance than the prices suggest
The even money about Liverpool to win in 90 minutes looks a little slim if we take into account how good Arsenal have been at home in the Premier League this season.
They've collected 22 points from a possible 30 at the Emirates this season, only losing to Manchester City and Chelsea while averaging 2.07 expected goals for (xGF) and 1.10 expected goals against (xGA) per game as hosts.
Overs in the goals market might have been an option, too, considering Arsenal's threat at home. Liverpool, of course, provide a stern test for any defence, even if their attack is diminished by the absence of Mane and Salah.
Jurgen Klopp's men have averaged a staggering 2.71 xGF per game in the league this season, but a general price of 4/5 is too skinny to take in this big game.
The 0-0 draw in the opening leg, however, further piques my interest with a bet I often check the price of in two-legged affairs - the SECOND HALF TO BE THE HIGHEST SCORING HALF.
At odds-against, it looks good value in a game that should suit.
The possibility of a goalless first half is very viable given the result of the first leg, which would give us a solid chance of the selection being successful after the break.
Additionally, any goal in a level two-legged tie changes the course of the fixture completely, encouraging an open, attacking outlook from teams.
Favourites Liverpool often embrace the chaos, and Arsenal have proven to be excellent performers at home.
Let's hope for a more entertaining affair than the first leg at least, perhaps saving the goals for the second half.
Arsenal v Liverpool best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Second half to be highest scoring half at 11/10 (Sky Bet, PaddyPower, Betfair Sportsbook)
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1430 GMT (18/01/22)
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