With the English Test summer set to begin in less than a month's time, Richard Mann assesses the current state of play now the early betting for the New Zealand series has been published.
How much change will Stokes really bring?
Last week's confirmation that Ben Stokes will become England's new Test captain came as little surprise, and in truth, it was just about the only appointment managing director Rob Key could have made in what was his first meaningful act since taking on his own new role.
With so few of England’s batsmen currently able to securely hold down their place in the starting XI, once Root finally decided to call time on his own tenure Key really did have few options at his disposal. Perhaps Jos Buttler – a brilliant vice-captain to Eoin Morgan in the 50 and 20 over formats – would have been a strong runner had his own Test form not been so poor in the last year or so, but elsewhere there were scant viable options.
So Stokes was always strong favourite to take over the reins from Root, a man to whom he had been vice-captain for so long, and who remains one of his closest friends.
Root has already come out in support of Stokes and said that he will be with him every step of the way, but with the Yorkshireman still likely to have a big say in how the Test team is run, just as Stokes did when Root was in charge, is it realistic to expect a fundamental change in approach and performance from England's Test team?
As of now, England are still without a full-time head coach, and unless Key has more big announcements imminent, it’s not entirely clear who will make up any selection panel in the long term. With the first Test against New Zealand starting at Lord’s on June 2, England are in danger of going into that series with more questions than answers.
If no full-time head coach is appointed by the time it begins, Paul Collingwood might once again find himself holding the fort, just as he did for the recent tour of the Caribbean, but it’s hard to believe he remains in the running for the job on a permanent basis. Thus, England could very well kick off the Test summer still without the vision and template any new head coach will lay out.
That would place a heavy burden on Stokes and Key, who hasn’t been appointed to coach the side, and the former might well find himself leaning on the likes of Root and James Anderson for advice and guidance – with very little coming from above.
But all that brings me back to my main concern – that nothing much will really change until at the very least, a new head coach is appointed and England can finally move away from the Root era. In the short term at least, we might be looking at the Stokes/Root era, and frankly, that might not be much better than what we’ve had to endure over the last few years.
Stokes the batsman Key to England's revival
What Stokes will be expected to bring to the table is leadership and inspiration. He’s been doing that for a while now and his miracle innings at Headingley in the 2019 Ashes not only inspired his teammates to salvage a draw from a series in which they were clear second best, it might well have inspired a generation of new cricket fans and players.
As captain, England will be banking on Stokes dragging his underperforming teammates kicking and screaming to his levels, but that didn’t work for similarly talismanic all-rounders Ian Botham and Andrew Flintoff.
Stokes was this week right to point out that he has never tried to be anyone other than himself, not Botham or Flintoff, just Ben Stokes. But history tells us what a colossal job Stokes the all-rounder has on his plate, especially taking charge of a team that hasn't won a Test series since beating Sri Lanka in early 2021.
He might well prove himself a better tactician than Root, and he will certainly lead in a different way, but what England need from Stokes more than anything else this summer is runs.
Since the beginning of 2021, Stokes has averaged 26.38 from 12 Tests and while that period was interrupted by injury and the break he took from the game because of mental health reasons, those are meagre returns for England’s second-best batsman. In 2020, Stokes averaged 58.27, and 45.61 in 2019, as England proved much more competitive.
Jonny Bairstow’s return to his best does help bolster England’s batting, even if he is asked to return as number one gloveman, and Root will surely remain one of the heaviest runscorers in world cricket. But the cupboard is bare elsewhere and for his team to get back to winning ways, Stokes the batsman needs to deliver.
Moving back down to number six seems like a sensible move to allow himself more breathing space, and whether Bairstow slots up to five or down to seven will depend on whether Buttler returns as wicketkeeper, or Ben Foakes is thought worthy of an extended run in the side.
If Bairstow gets the nod, that will mean a spot in the middle order becomes available, one which the likes of Ollie Pope, Josh Bohannon and Joe Clarke will hope to fill. Clarke’s chequered past would make him a controversial pick, but England have confirmed he will now be considered for selection, though Bohannon has made a double hundred in the County Championship already this season and might be a safer bet for a variety of reasons.
It's up top where the main issues remain, however, with Zak Crawley short of runs in county cricket and Rory Burns looking unlikely to earn a recall given Key called for his axing on Sky Sports in the middle of last winter’s Ashes.
Don’t rule out a return for James Bracey who is a much better player than we saw against the Kiwis last summer, but he has been making his runs at number three in county cricket and should Root suggest he is happy to stay in that position, it’s an opening batsman that England need to find more urgently.
With those in short supply, Stokes really will have a heavy burden to carry with the bat when the Kiwis come calling.
Anderson and Broad set to return against strong opposition
One thing we can expect from the Key/Stokes era is pragmatism.
One of the first messages to come from Key and Stokes was that Anderson and Stuart Broad will return this summer, fitness permitting, on the basis that both warrant a place in England's best starting XI on performance.
Some of the nonsense to come out of the camp surrounding the non-selection of the pair for the recent West Indies series only underlined that Root’s time was up, and that Collingwood just isn't the right man for the head coach role.
What England must do in the short term is try and win some Test matches, or at least ensure they are competitive against three very strong sides in New Zealand, India, and South Africa.
Anderson and Broad won’t be able to wave a magic wand and erase all of England’s problems, but they remain very fine bowlers in all conditions and with Jofra Archer out of the Test running while he continues his rehabilitation, and Mark Wood and Ollie Stone still under injury clouds, England need all the world-class bowlers they can get.
It will be interesting to see if Chris Woakes has played his last Test for England, given the previous messaging about needing to build an attack to win away from home and his desperately poor record abroad, but if pragmatism wins out, he will surely be considered at home in the coming months.
England will certainly need a fit and firing Woakes to support Anderson and Broad, given the strength of opposition this summer, starting with New Zealand.
New Zealand had too many guns for England when they toured these shores only a year ago, and though Ross Taylor has now retired, the likes of Kane Williamson, Devon Conway, Tom Latham and Will Young suggest there will once again be a gulf in class in the batting department.
Young is a player I have high hopes for and his 82 at Edgbaston last summer marked him down as someone capable of excelling in these conditions at the highest level, as his country championship returns had already suggested. He is back in England this summer, currently playing for Northamptonshire, and I’ll be keen to see how he is priced up in the betting as the series draws closer.
For now, we only have the first Test odds and outright series markets to keep us entertained, but New Zealand look criminally underrated at 13/8 to win the series (Sky Bet).
Don’t forget that New Zealand beat India in the ICC Test Championship in England last year and boast a bowling attack featuring the likes of Trent Boult and Tim Southee that is more than a match for England’s own. With the batting tipping the scales in their favour, the Kiwis look huge value at this stage.
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