Richard Mann has landed 11/4 and 13/8 winners so far in his in-play previews for the second Test – check out his thoughts ahead of day four here.
Were it any other team in world cricket, even the mighty Australia, few would be giving the away team much chance of chasing down 399 against India in their own back yard, despite a promising start to England's second innings which saw them end day three on 67-1.
Recent history tells us this isn’t any cricket team though. They might not be the best yet, perhaps Ben Stokes' team of mavericks never will be, but few sides in the history of the game have put as much fear into the opposition as this one. When it comes to fourth innings run chases, they are unmatched.
It’s not just the run chases England have pulled off since the Brendon McCullum/Stokes leadership partnership transformed the side’s fortunes – 279-5, 299-5 and 296-3 against New Zealand, and 378-3 against India, all in 2022 – it’s the manner in which those scores were chased down.
With no fear, fast scoring, and an indifference to what has come before. History forgotten, records there to be broken, new norms created. England have changed the game.
That’s why James Anderson was right when he said at the end of day three that India looked nervous and unsure late in their second innings. The hosts didn’t know what a good score was, how many they needed to feel safe, and that’s why Ravi Ashwin crawled along, only taking a single from almost every over as he batted with the tail.
In the end, 399 really should be too much for England. The pitch is wearing, taking plenty of spin, and variable bounce is becoming more and more of a factor.
Tom Hartley was all smiles when trapping Axar Patel LBW on the way to helping himself to four more wickets, but England’s batsmen won’t have liked what they saw as the ball rolled along the ground from short of a length.
This is the sort of pitch when, as a batsman, you feel any given ball just has your name on it. That’s probably why we have seen big scores from Yashasvi Jaiswal, Shubman Gill and Crawley, but more generally, lots of starts cut short. In England’s favour is that they are sure to attack their victory target, meaning that however many runs they do manage, they will be scored quickly, and thus a fifth day is unlikely to be required.
Furthermore, England’s batsmen won’t allow themselves to be sitting ducks, and that will quickly transfer the pressure back on to India if they are able to build a substantial partnership at speed.
And that is what makes the first hour of day four even more important than usual – especially when considering that there has generally been something in pitch for the seamers at the start of every morning.
Expect Jasprit Bumrah – who took six wickets in the first innings – to be a huge threat once again and how much reverse swing he is able to get from the old ball will likely dictate how close England get.
The wearing surface will bring Ashwin and Kuldeep Yadav into the game, but England will keep swinging and will take them for runs. That is easier said than done against the exceptional Bumrah.
So much is against England, but they clearly believe and that in itself gives them a chance. India know that England believe they can win the game, too, and already trailing in the series, that puts extra pressure on the hosts.
As such, I can certainly see a scenario where England trade shorter than the 5.8 they are currently available to back on the Exchange. A strong start from Crawley, with Ollie Pope to come, could see England put themselves in a good position before Lunch, and don’t be surprised if they were to trade around the 3.5 mark.
The big issue for me is the middle order. Joe Root looks out of touch and spent plenty of time off the field on Sunday having sustained a blow to his finger, while Jonny Bairstow’s scratchy form in the Ashes has so far travelled with him to India. Ben Foakes, for all he is an outstanding gloveman, is still to convince with the bat at this level.
As ever, much will depend on captain Stokes.
A fascinating day in prospect, but one I can watch without having a bet at this stage.
Day three betting update
2pts India under 300 second innings runs at 13/8 (Sky Bet)
Unders did us a good turn on Saturday morning, when playing under 400 runs in India’s first innings paid dividends, and the scores are expected to come down as the match progresses.
Though Jasprit Bumrah produced a fast-bowling masterclass in England’s first innings, aided by some poor batting from the tourists, there is little doubt the pitch played its part.
Yes, reverse swing was a huge factor, but low bounce helped him breach Ben Stokes’ defences, and there was plenty of spin for Kuldeep Yadav, too.
Things will only get worse from here on in, and with the innings scores so far reading 396 and 253, I can see that coming down further. Already 171 runs behind, England are in big trouble when batting last.
What is also telling about this surface is that although Yashasvi Jaiswal struck a brilliant double-hundred in the first innings, no other Indian passed fifty. When England batted, there were lots of starts but again, only Zak Crawley posted a half-century (76).
England’s bowling attack is by no means world-class, but it wasn’t in Hyderabad when they ran through India in favourable conditions in the second innings. With some assistance, they can get at this brittle Indian batting line-up.
The presence of James Anderson, who was outstanding for his three wickets in the first innings, will be a big help, and though in pole position in the match, India might not have things all there own way second time around.
As such, I’ll be backing UNDER 300 INDIA RUNS at 13/8.
Day two betting update
2pts India under 400 first innings runs runs at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
England fought back manfully in the final session of day one of the first Test in Visakhapatnam, picking up three wickets as India closed on 336-6 on the back of Yashasvi Jaiswal’s stunning, unbeaten 179.
With 400 in sight, India will fancy they are in the ascendancy, but the pitch looks relatively placid at this stage, if not very slow and very low, and likely to get worse in that regard as the match progresses. Having lost the toss and bowled first, England will rightly be happy to have finished with six wickets for their efforts.
Our first innings bet on Jasprit Bumrah for top India bowler should be a big runner now, with the paceman so effective on these types of pitches when going full, and attacking the stumps with his skiddy action.
It’s worth remembering that of the six wickets Bumrah claimed in the first Test, three were bowled and one LBW. In-play punters might want to take note with the next method of dismissal market in mind.
More immediately, England will be keen to wrap up India’s innings quickly, and there are reasons to be think they can do just that. Though resuming with one eye on a double hundred, Jaiswal will need to start again, with Ravi Ashwin for company but very little to come afterwards. Due in next is Bumrah who averages 6.63 in Test cricket.
England are only one more wicket away from the tail, and perhaps most importantly, captain Ben Stokes can call for the new ball whenever he wishes. Expect him to arm a refreshed James Anderson with the new cherry as soon as play resumes, the 41-year-old having stood out one day one, returning exemplary figures of 17-3-30-1.
Anderson could have taken Jaiswal’s wicket on a number of occasions across the three sessions, but gets another crack in the morning, and he is England’s best hope of wrapping things up quickly.
I’m happy to chance that Anderson can do the damage with the new ball, so impressive was he on day one, but instead of playing unders on runs with the line currently around the 430 mark, I’ll roll the dice on INDIA UNDER 400 FIRST INNINGS RUNS at 11/4 with Sky Bet.
Preview published at 1305 GMT on 02/02/24
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