Richard Mann bagged 4/1 and 11/4 at Lord's, and returns with four bets for the third Test between England and Pakistan which begins on Wednesday at Edgbaston.
Cricket tips: England v Pakistan
2pts Saim Ayub over 18.5 first innings runs at 5/6 (General)
0.5pt Saim Ayub to make a first innings fifty at 4/1 (General)
2pts Harry Brook to make a first innings century at 9/2 (BOYLE Sports, betway)
2pts Jordan Cox to make a first innings fifty at 11/4 (betway)
If cricket mismatches are not your thing, chances are you didn’t much enjoy the first two Tests of the three-match series between England and Pakistan which concludes in Birmingham this week.
Sadly, I don’t hold out much hope for a Pakistan resurgence at Edgbaston, with five uncapped players drafted in this week as seven of the original squad have been sent home following the heavy defeat at Lord's. The Mad House that is Pakistan cricket continues.
That said, it’s hard to think of two more abject performances than the ones Pakistan have turned in so far, firstly in Leeds when losing by an innings and 103 runs, and then in London when hammered by 194 runs.
Many have already had their say on the current state of Pakistan cricket – while I was enjoying the Menorcan sunshine, may I add – and there is clearly a good book to be written on how systemic mismanagement and political interference is leaving Pakistan's cricketers on a hiding to nothing.
Pakistan shortfalls exposed
However, in professional sport, or any level of sport for that matter, effort and commitment should be non-negotiable and Pakistan have been found wanting, particularly in the field when at times looking lazy and somewhat disinterested in the fight before them.
And though faced with admittedly tough batting conditions, particularly at Lord’s, scores of 171, 135, 110 and 194 in the first two Tests paint a clear picture of Pakistan’s shortfalls, with the Dukes ball and English conditions proving too much to handle.
When you add Jofra Archer’s pace and X-factor to the mix, and Josh Tongue’s deadly shooting when the lower order comes into sight, it’s hard to see what changes this week, for all Edgbaston, along with Headingley, is generally a very good place to bat.
If I were in the Pakistan camp, I’d be reminding captain Babar Azam that England lost the final Test of last summer against India, and again against Sri Lanka in 2024. A crumb of comfort, perhaps, but we are scraping the barrel.
Moreover, those defeats came under a different leadership group, a different captain and coach, and for all Joe Root’s captaincy has its detractors, he appears to have the bit between his teeth.
The axing of naughty boy Brydon Carse after he was arrested outside a Derby night club would suggest Root is not prepared to let his second stint as captain be marred by the type of off-field behaviour that became a microcosm of Ben Stokes' final few months in charge, and perhaps this latest version of the England cricket team will possess the ruthless streak it has been badly lacking.
Edgbaston better for batting?
Even if Edgbaston produces a flat pitch – and Gary Barwell is just about the best in the business in this area – I just don’t see Pakistan competing for long enough with England.
We were with no century in the match at Lord’s, providing these pages with a second winner in the match (4/1 and 11/4), but as already referenced, I’m expecting a much better surface for batting than the latest in a long line of poor wickets we saw at Lord’s.
No Pakistan fifty in the match (8/1 with bet365) has shortened dramatically, too, and it’s worth remembering last summer’s Test match on this ground against India, albeit played in early-July, saw scores of 587, 407, 427-6 declared and 271.
With a reasonable weather forecast at the time of writing, I’m not keen to go low, though I will revisit this in my daily in-play previews for this Test when we will know more. We also note with interest that Root was again snared LBW at Lord’s, twice in fact, making it three from three innings in the series thus far. Another one to watch in-play.
Don't underestimate returning Saim
For now, it’s the individual player markets I’m most interested in, starting with SAIM AYUB FIRST INNINGS RUNS AT OVER 18.5.
While the raft of changes Pakistan have made for this game has raised plenty of eyebrows, the recall of Saim makes perfect sense. In truth, he should have been in the original party and looks a clear upgrade on those to have batted in the top order so far on this trip.
Though still only 24 years age, Saim has long held a tall reputation and drew glowing praise from Ricky Pointing after making his Test debut in Sydney in 2024, compiling a composed 33 in the second innings against Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood.
The left-hander displayed similar promise against the new ball in South Africa later that year, and a good 77 against England in Multan sandwiched in between confirms this to be a young talent with plenty going for him. For good measure, Saim has two ODI centuries in South Africa to his name.
While I was surprised Saim didn’t feature in the original squad for this tour, perhaps I shouldn’t have been given this is Pakistan we are talking about, and a terrific hundred in the CPL only a matter of days ago confirms he at least arrives in England full of confidence.
This looks a low line for a player I rate highly, someone with the game for these conditions, and with the potential for a decent pitch to bat on in Birmingham, I’ll add a smaller stake on SAIM TO MAKE A FIFTY at 4/1.
Elsewhere, I have little interest in picking between England’s four-pronged pace attack that has so far feasted on easy prey, though a seemingly unlikely recall for Sonny Baker would spike my interest in his match wickets or player performance lines. I rate Baker highly.
Brook coming to boiling point
I do, however, wonder if this week is the time to catch HARRY BROOK, and in the hope this pitch is a good one, I’ll be backing the Yorkshireman to make a FIRST INNINGS CENTURY at 9/2.
Brook very nearly landed that bet in Leeds, falling just nine short of three figures at the end of a fine innings on his home ground, and there was no shame in only adding scores of 15 and 34 at Lord’s, such was the nature of the surface there.
Still, Brook is averaging 75.46 from eight Tests in total against Pakistan, and he already has a Test hundred at Edgbaston from only three games here. Those are compelling numbers.
Cox can make form count
Finally, I like what I’ve seen from JORDAN COX so far, a classy 73 at Headingley followed by a half-century at Lord’s which came in desperate conditions before he was dismissed with a terrific catch.
With the weight of his performances so far, Cox has given the selectors much to ponder ahead of the winter and Jacob Bethell’s imminent return to full fitness, and whether at number three or six, England probably need to find room in their batting line-up for this impressive young player.
Cox, too, will know there is a bit on the line this week, a final chance to make his mark on a Test summer where his stock has most certainly risen, and what better way to sign off than with a score against a reeling Pakistan team.
COX TO MAKE A FIRST-INNINGS FIFTY looks a bet at 11/4; the 9/4 available elsewhere is perfectly acceptable.
Preview posted at 10:55 BST on 07/09/26
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