Richard Mann delivers his verdict on the ICC T20 Cricket World Cup, assessing the key contenders and outright betting.
Cricket tips: ICC T20 World Cup
2pts South Africa to win the ICC T20 World Cup at 6/1 (General)
SOUTH AFRICA came within a whisker of winning the T20 World Cup in the Caribbean back in 2024, and the Proteas are backed to go one better in this year’s renewal which will be hosted by India and Sri Lanka.
Since India, or more precisely, Jasprit Bumrah, broke South African hearts in Bridgetown, Aiden Markram’s side have continued to progress across formats. The Test team, which led by Temba Bavuma, beat Australia in the World Test Championship final at Lord’s last summer, Markram the batsman proving the hero, while the limited-overs formats continue to grow in strength.
The 50-over outfit reached the semi-finals of the Champions Trophy in March last year, where a dangerous batting line-up flexed its muscles, though perhaps not to the same degree they promise in the upcoming T20 World Cup. The shortest format, it seems, was made for this Proteas batting unit.
The signs were certainly there in the recent T20I series win over the West Indies, who have more than a sniff in the coming weeks themselves. That could prove decent form, and the Proteas won the series 2-1, on one occasion successfully chasing 174 inside 18 overs, and then running down 222 in just 17.3 overs.
Prior to that, South Africa got a taste of Indian conditions when playing four T20Is (the fourth of five scheduled matches was rained off), losing 3-1, but twice scoring 200-plus with the bat. We’ll get onto India later, the 7/5 clear outright favourites, but the standard of cricket played across that series, I’d argue, bodes well for South Africa’s chances here.
Let’s not forget, everything in this game comes back to price, and South Africa are generally available at 6/1, that despite them finally breaking their ICC duck last summer, and this format arguably being their strongest.
De Kock return boosts the Proteas
And I say that because of the batting. That India series marked the return to international cricket of Quinton de Kock, and what a return he has made. De Kock was the leading runscorer on either side in that series, and then added a blistering century against the West Indies to rubber-stamp his opening partnership with Markram, the latter hot from having finished the SA20 with a bang, and with good memories of India following a strong last IPL season.
That opening partnership, a mix of skill, power, experience, and form, might just be the best in the tournament, yet I’m left thinking the real strength of this team comes from a powerhouse middle order.
I’m not quite sure how they fit all their cartel of power punchers into the same XI, but you’d have to be happy to see Ryan Rickelton and Tristan Stubbs back in the squad following the withdrawals of Tony de Zorzi and Donovan Ferreira. Sometimes things fall into place, and South Africa are a better team for those late changes.
Both Rickelton and Stubbs have strong IPL experience, so know the conditions they will face well, and each were outstanding in the recent SA20, Rickelton finishing as the third highest runscorer in the tournament and averaging over forty, while Stubbs produced a match-winning innings in the final to help Sunrisers Eastern Cape to another title success.
Gun finisher David Miller has been passed fit and is back for another crack at winning a World Cup, along with two dynamic and powerful all-rounders in Corbin Bosch and Marco Jansen. Spinner George Linde can certainly bat, too, so ought to go on that list.
The batting is very good, then, and I absolutely love the experience within their ranks, with bags of IPL exposure and the type of attacking mentality that is needed to compete with the likes of India in the modern T20 game.
Young gun Brevis one to watch
And nobody embodies that more than Dewald Brevis, given star billing on these pages and, for my money, currently the most exciting white-ball batsman on the planet. He may not be the finished article just yet, but Brevis’ ceiling is higher than most, and his last 12 months, from signing for Chennai Super Kings as a late replacement in last season’s IPL, to terrorising Australia, and then blitzing a 56-ball hundred in the SA20 final, has been outstanding.
If Brevis gets going in the middle order, and the likes of de Kock and Markram ought to provide him with a platform more often than not, expect carnage, and some monster scores from a batting line-up that perhaps only India and England can match.
So what of the bowling? Well, I can’t argue it holds a candle to the batting. But in Kagiso Rabada, South Africa have one of the great fast bowlers of his generation, and he’s definitely hitting his yorkers better than I’ve seen him do for some time.
He’ll lead the attack, but don’t overlook the likes of Jansen and Bosch who are genuine wicket-takers, as is Anrich Nortje if he can get back up to speed following so many injury problems. Spin is covered from Linde and the world-class Keshav Maharaj, who remains criminally underrated.
South Africa tick plenty of boxes, and I wouldn’t underestimate the importance of Markram’s captaincy. A cool head, as demonstrated in that World Test Championship final, I rate Markram as the best captain in the tournament, leading just about the most dangerous batting line-up on show.
With that ICC tournament monkey now off their backs, and odds of 6/1 looking very attractive, I’m more than happy to put my faith in the power-packed Proteas.
India hot favourites on home turf
At the time of writing, Pakistan’s refusal to play India in their scheduled Group A clash means the tournament favourites will surely saunter into the Super 8s, and if they bring their best game, with home advantage on their side, they will clearly take some stopping.
The batting, much like South Africa’s, is all-out attack, kicked off by Abhishek Sharma at the top of the order, whose strike-rate in this format currently stands at a quite ridiculous 194.74. Even more ridiculous is that he can still average 37.05 from 38 T20Is playing that way.
Ishan Kishan’s red-hot form and similarly aggressive approach has seen him force his way back into the team, helping form a strong top order that also features captain Suryakumar Yadav and Tilak Varma. Hardik Pandya is one of a number of fine all-rounders in the squad.
As one would expect with India, the bowling has lots of spin options, and that man Bumrah. The best bowler in the world in this format, if not all formats, Bumrah was the difference in the 2024 renewal, and could well be again if, as expected, we see big runs, and only the very best bowlers are able to thrive, or indeed survive.
But 7/5 is awfully short for any side, especially one that plays the way India do, fuelled by aggression and always looking to take the high-risk option. Lose a crucial toss later in the tournament at a venue known for heavy dew, and those slips might not look so shrewd then.
On price grounds alone, I’m happy to look elsewhere.
England on the up and dangerous
I’ve really warmed to England in recent days, initially impressed with how they defied tough batting conditions to win the recent ODI series with Sri Lanka, before bashing up the same opponents in this format on better pitches in Pallekele.
The Pakistan news could help England further down the line, and while I’d fancy the West Indies to give them a game when they meet in their Group C fixture, it should be relatively plain sailing for Harry Brook’s outfit, one that appears nice and settled right now.
The batting is very good when on song. Phil Salt and Jos Buttler are an intimidating prospect at the top of the order, Brook a world-beater in the making, one who has a point to prove at present, while the likes of Tom Banton and Sam Curran look ready to take their chance now it has finally arrived. Both are fine cricketers.
Adil Rashid might just be the best spin bowler in the tournament, Jofra Archer the fastest, and I wouldn’t underestimate the roles Liam Dawson and Curran can play with the ball. Curran was Man of the Match in the 2022 T20 World Cup final in Australia, and Dawson is a crafty old dog who is proving a nice foil for Rashid.
Elsewhere, I just don’t see New Zealand having the power in their batting to win a T20 World Cup if conditions are indeed conducive to big scores, though drafting opener Finn Allen in at the last minute looks a wise move.
Australia had been on my radar, but news that Pat Cummins is out of the tournament is a hammer blow that follows Mitchell Starc’s retirement from this format, and also coincides with confirmation Josh Hazlewood has still not recovered from the Achilles tendon issue that kept him out of the Ashes. He won’t be fit for the start of the tournament at least.
I’m still loathe to write off any Australian team. They have just won another Ashes series with an apparent second-string bowling attack, but getting mauled 3-0 by Pakistan in last week’s warm-up series was concerning, particularly the manner in which the batting continually struggled against spin.
At 4/1, there are enough negatives to put me off, with South Africa and England making more appeal at bigger odds.
I’m still not convinced by Pakistan, and that’s before you consider the political issues behind the scenes. It doesn’t help their chances at all, and you have to have sympathy with the players who are paid to play cricket, not deal with the off-field nonsense that does their on-field chances no good whatsoever.
West Indies make price appeal
On price grounds, I wouldn’t totally discount the claims of the West Indies, however.
The prospect of good pitches and the strong form of Shimron Hetmyer, Sherfane Rutherford and Shai Hope makes the batting very interesting. There is power down the order, too, from the likes of Rovman Powell and Romario Shepherd.
I’d have more concerns about the bowling, but that can be said for a few of the teams priced much shorter in the betting than the West Indies. Jayden Seales and Shamar Joseph do offer pace, and could cause some damage with the new ball.
Looking at how the Super 8s are likely to shape up, it will be tough for the West Indies, possibly making up the group with India, South Africa and Australia.
That’s enough to kill thoughts of striking a bet, but if there is to be a shock winner outside of India, South Africa and England, it could well be the West Indies, who have history in this tournament.
Much of that history was down to the leadership of head coach Darren Sammy who does appear to be building something good here, just as he did in his playing days when captaining his country to T20 World Cup victories in 2012 and 2016.
This looks to be a side on the upgrade, though perhaps not to the same degree as South Africa who are currently the best Test team in the world, and in just a few weeks might well be world champions in a different format.
Posted at 12:15 GMT on 03/02/26
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