Richard Mann has been in the winners of late, and he has three bets for the third Test between England and South Africa which is now set to begin on Saturday.
- Originally published on September 4; Test match to begin on Saturday September 10 which will be day three
Cricket tips: England v South Africa third Test
2pts Anrich Nortje top South Africa first innings bowler at 13/4 (Betway)
1pt Kyle Verreynne top South Africa first innings batsman at 8/1 (General)
1pt Ben Stokes top England first innings batsman at 6/1 (General)
England have set up a mouth-watering finish to the Test summer this week, the final act at the Oval now a series decider after Ben Stokes inspired his side to an innings victory over South Africa in the second Test at Old Trafford.
The all-rounder enjoyed a match to remember, registering his first century since taking over as captain and claiming four vital wickets with a typically wholehearted display with the ball.
Stokes combined for what proved to be a match-defining partnership of 173 with Ben Foakes in England’s first innings, continuing a theme of the summer which has seen the middle and lower dominate the top batsman markets.
In that match alone, Foakes was a winner in the England market, Kagiso Rabada at 100/1 from number nine in South Africa’s first innings, before Rassie van der Dussen was only one run from top scoring for the visitors in the second innings, despite batting with a broken finger.
Middle order the place for a bet
The top order enjoyed more success at Lord’s, but Stuart Broad top scored at number eight in England’s second innings there and it’s worth remembering that prior to this series, Jonny Bairstow made four centuries in four Tests from number five, Daryl Mitchell three in as many matches from the same batting position for New Zealand.
In sum, batting has been much harder at the top of the order than later in the innings, and while facing the new ball has always been tough work in English conditions, the tendency for this summer’s batch of Dukes balls to quickly go soft has made the bias even stronger.
With the Oval a traditionally hard surface with practice wickets running across the square, we should be in for more of the same this week and betting the middle order is a must.
Verreynne stands for South Africa
For South Africa, that injury to van der Dussen scuppers a possible bet on him, Aiden Markram continues to make too many mistakes in this format, so wicket-keeper KYLE VERREYNNE appeals as the obvious choice.
Verreynne has slotted into the role as South Africa’s number one gloveman in Tests with aplomb, taking over from Quinton de Kock and displaying tidy glovework and a simple, effective technique with the bat.
A brilliant, unbeaten 136 against New Zealand at Christchurch in the winter confirmed he belongs at this level, and he’s shown plenty of promise on this tour, making runs in the warm-up fixture against England Lions and then posting scores of 21 and 17 not out at Old Trafford.
A sound temperament and that solid technique should stand him in good stead going forward and having plied his trade on a fast, bouncy surface at Newlands in Cape Town, he ought to enjoy batting at the Oval.
Given my preference for the middle order, and that van der Dussen’s replacement will be forced to come into this Test cold, Verreynne has to be the bet at 8/1.
For England, the water isn’t quite so clear. The freak injury that has ruled Bairstow out of this week and the forthcoming T20 World Cup means a likely debut for the promising Harry Brook, though he has had no red-ball cricket in the last few weeks.
Stick with Stokes in Bairstow's absence
As ever, Joe Root heads the betting and he has two Test centuries at this ground to his name already, but South Africa have bowled really well to him in the first two matches and I’ll pass him over at prohibitive odds, just as I will the top three.
Of that top three, Ollie Pope must be of interest on his home ground, but he hasn’t found Anrich Nortje’s express pace easy to combat, and so BEN STOKES is worth siding with to back up his exploits in Manchester.
A good break since his exertions there should have done Stokes plenty of good and it's worth nothing that he made a century on this ground against South Africa in 2017, his fourth hundred in only 14 Tests against this opposition.
Having appeared obsessed with taking the game to New Zealand's bowlers earlier in the summer, Stokes finally looked to have found the right tempo to his batting in the last match and if the wicket at the Oval spins, he will be well placed as a left hander to combat South Africa’s left-arm spinner, Keshav Maharaj.
The numbers are strongly suggesting backing the middle order, and Stokes looks to have plenty in his favour with the series on the line and his determination to produce another significant contribution sure to be sky high.
He’ll do for me at 6/1.
Nortje to make pace pay again
Finally, I see no reason to jump ship from ANRICH NORTJE who has bowled with serious pace throughout the current tour and did these pages a favour when winning the top South Africa first innings bowler market at Old Trafford thanks to three middle order wickets.
That haul backed up the three in each innings Nortje claimed at Lord’s and though yet to help himself to any cheap lower-order wickets, that will surely change given the fear-factor his pace brings.
While he can be expensive, Nortje’s has been one of the stars of the series so far and I expect him to figure strongly on a surface that has historically offered decent speed and good bounce.
It should be tailor-made for Nortje who wants backing again at 13/4.
Posted at 1640 BST on 04/09/22
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