Richard Mann previews day five Lord's, with the third Test between England and India all set for a grandstand finish.
The third Test at Lord's is set for a thrilling and dramatic finale after another pulsating day of cricket on Sunday.
With only day five remaining, India require a further 135 runs to reach their victory target of 193, but with only six wickets in hand after England prized out four of them late on day four.
What promised to be a comfortable run chase looks like being anything but, with big fish Yashasvi Jaiswal and captain Shubman Gill already sent back to the sheds, before nightwatchman Akash Deep had his off stump flattened by Ben Stokes just before the close.
Day four started with a bang, as most have, with India claiming four England wickets in a breakneck first session, and then finishing the job as Washington Sundar spun a web on England's middle order to end with four wickets.
However, this pitch, though docile for the first three days, is starting to show signs of uneven bounce, while its dry nature on the back of a scorching week in London has resulted in the surface offering assistance to the spinners.
India shouldn't have to worry too much about spin on Monday, but in Jofra Archer and Brydon Carse, England have two tall, quick bowlers who are at their best when hitting back of a length and letting the pitch do the rest. This fifth day at Lord's could prove the perfect storm for that pair.
Nevertheless, the surface is a long way from being a minefield, and as we've seen all through the Test match, batting generally gets easier from 25 overs onwards when these Dukes balls start to go soft. This one is currently 17.4 overs old.
It's a cliche, but the first hour on Monday will be crucial. If India can get through it relatively unscathed, with first-innings centurion KL Rahul 33 not out overnight and Rishabh Pant due in next, they will be almost there.
Ultimately, the tourists will feel they are one sizeable partnership from victory, and with Ravi Jadeja, Nitish Kumar Reddy and Washington still to come, they do have the batting to get the job done.
But pressure is a big man, and the example set by their captain during a wildly frenetic stay at the end of day four was not a good one. Having told England batsman Zak Crawley to 'grow some balls' on Saturday, it seems Gill has some growing to do himself.
India are around the 1/2 mark to finish the job, so the layers clearly favour them from here, and having advised the tourists at 11/4 in this column on Thursday, I'm hoping those odds are right.
Elsewhere, I haven't found a bet at the end of a busy and fruitful Test, but despite the above odds, I fear this match has more twists and twists to offer before we get to the grandstand finish that feels almost inevitable.
Preview published at 2140 BST on 13/07/25
Day four betting update
1pt England second innings runs under 309.5 at 5/4 (Betway, Boylesports)
It's short odds that Ian Ward will begin Sunday's Sky Sports coverage of the third Test by asking one of his colleagues where the balance of power currently lies in this match.
The truth is, after three more absorbing days of cricket in what has so far been a wonderful series, we are back where we started. The series score is level at 1-1, and the third Test is delicately poised with two days to play and two full innings to come after both teams posted exactly 387 in their respective first innings.
Both camps might feel they could be better placed, but more so India had Rishabh Pant not run himself out on the stroke of Lunch having cruised to 74. Had Pant batted for another hour or so, India would be well ahead of the game by now.
Nevertheless, we are still well placed having taken 11/4 about India after day one, with the tourists now favourites to win the match at 13/8. Given England's aversion to drawing Test matches, I still think we'll get a result this week, and remain confident that it will be India who prevail.
A strong start for the tourists in the morning could see them trade at odds-on, and opting to get our initial stake back by laying India at somewhere in the region of 1.75 would make sense, if the chance arises. Alternatively, if you really don't like the draw, a cover on England might appeal more.
Fifties for Pant and Ravi Jadeja on Saturday provided the pre-match preview with a couple of winners, and expect the latter to have a big part to play on Sunday.
All eyes will be on that man Jasprit Bumrah, and he'll likely have his say again, but this pitch is docile and flat, so India's spinners, Jadeja and Washington Sundar, could be key in the afternoon session onwards.
So far, the surface hasn't looked to offer a great deal for any of the bowlers, but Jadeja found some spin on the first day, so by day four on Sunday, one would expect even more assistance for him and Sundar.
In terms of spin, it's hard to make a firm judgement on the state of this pitch because Shoaib Bashir has so far been ineffective, before he was forced to leave the field having copped a blow to his left hand.
After baking in the scorching London sun for three days, this pitch will be dry, and we have seen the odd delivery go through the top.
I must stress that I don't think this wicket will seriously deteriorate, but I think it will offer something for the spinners late in the game, and Jadeja could prove a real handful.
We shouldn't forget that England's batting has had some significant issues against spin for a while now, Joe Root apart, with last winter's tour of Pakistan finding them out, just as the previous winter's tour of India did.
The other point to make is that England will have to try and force the pace from here if they are to win the game, something they maintain they will always try to do. That will come with risk.
I'm keen on unders, and both Betway and Boylesports go 5/4 for UNDER 309.5 ENGLAND INNINGS RUNS.
Finally, keep an eye on the next method of dismissal markets in-play.
If, as I'm expecting, Jadeja and Sundar do lots of bowling in the afternoon, that does open up the possibility of a stumping or two in this England second innings.
Zak Crawley was dismissed that way by Nathan Lyon on this ground a few years ago, and Ollie Pope has twice been stumped in Tests against India. The likes of Harry Brook and Jamie Smith are others who like to use their feet to the spinners.
Crawley is currently 45/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook to be stumped in this innings, and though that will surely shorten if he makes it through the seamers, I'd still guess we'll be looking at 33/1.
It might just be worth throwing small stakes at a couple in this aggressive England batting line-up against a pair of seasoned Indian spinners.
Preview published at 2200 BST on 12/07/25
I think most observers would agree that this has been a very good series so far, despite some particularly flat pitches, but I reckon day two at Lord's might've been one of the most interesting of the summer so far.
It started with a bang, Joe Root bringing up another Test hundred with the very first ball of the morning, before that man Jasprit Bumrah castled the centurion right after he had done the same to Ben Stokes, before then nipping out Chris Woakes soon after.
At that point, India were on the charge, hovering around the 11/10 mark to win the Test on the Betfair Exchange with England lurching on 271-7.
Then came the now standard counter-punch from Jamie Smith, a bustling half-century which was ably supported by Brydon Carse dragging England to a final total of 387. Five more wickets for Bumrah.
Having resumed on 251-4, England could have been forgiven for thinking they had missed their chance to turn the screw, but so would India having at one stage looked likely to dismiss the hosts for under 300.
And the topsy turvy nature of the day was only half done, England prizing out three Indian wickets before the close as the visitors progressed to 145-3, still 242 runs behind.
It means the Test is beautifully poised. A finger injury to Rishabh Pant (19 not out) will be a concern for India, a flat, docile Lord's surface and a Dukes ball some 43 overs old, and 'very soft' according to Root, a big worry for England.
Having advised India to win the Test at 11/4 after day one, I'm pleased to see they have shortened by around a point, but this game is a long way from behind decided.
Nevertheless, I'm happy enough with our position, and with Pant and Ravi Jadeja already in the pre-match staking plan, I don't feel the need to get involved again. Not yet anyway.
Preview published at 2125 BST on 11/07/25
Day two betting update
2pts India to win the third Test at 11/4 (bet365, Boylesports)
How many is enough in a series like this?
In the first Test of the series at Headingley, India posted 471 batting first, and then 364 in the second innings, but still lost the match by five wickets.
In Birmingham, England’s first innings total of 407 still left them a long way short of India’s earlier 587, and the visitors went on to level the series in comfortable fashion.
It seems that old rules do not apply, not when the pitches are as flat as we have seen in England this summer, one of the hottest in recent memory. Lord’s, even in a normal year, is flat.
And the good thing for India is that batting usually gets easier here.
I’m old enough to remember when pictures of this week’s Lord’s wicket were doing the rounds on social media on Monday and Tuesday, the sight of a surface tinged with green leaving many to presume the seamers would finally fill their boots.
But this is the way at Lord’s. Leave plenty of grass on the pitch to hold the surface together over the course of five days, while also helping the seamers get that little bit more carry than they would without that live grass. More grass, more carry, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing for batting, either.
And as a result, that first session on day one can be tough work for batting, as was the case on Thursday, but things soon got easier and England find themselves well enough placed on 251-4, Joe Root 99 not out overnight.
Test hundred 37 will highly likely follow before many of the members have taken their seats in the morning, but the second new ball is less than three overs old, so Jasprit Bumrah and Akash Deep will have as good an opportunity as they will get for the rest if the match to make early inroads and expose England’s tail.
251-4 could very quickly become 300-7. Suddenly it would be game on.
And even if England do bat long and big, and post in excess of 400, the rhythm of the series tells that India would not be out of things.
There was some spin on day one for India’s spinners, but India won’t be losing sleep over Shoaib Bashir, while the hot weather and placid nature of the surface will test Jofra Archer’s fitness on his return to Test cricket, similarly Chris Woakes and Brydon Carse who got through plenty of work last week.
Following twin centuries in Birmingham, one of them a double-hundred, to go with his hundred in Leeds, India captain Shubman Gill will no doubt be licking his lips at the prospect of batting on another flat deck.
Throw Rishabh Pant into the mix, two centuries and a fifty in the series so far, along with their excellent opening pair, and India will not be daunted when they come to bat, even if they are facing a big deficit.
And this is Bazball after all, so don’t rule out an implosion against that new ball in the morning.
All in all, there are lots of factors to suggest India are a long way from out of this match, and with batting second at Lord’s of little concern to me, I’m happy to chance the visitors at 11/4.
There is an awful lot of cricket still to be played in this Test match, and those odds could easily flip over the next few days.
England don’t have anywhere near enough yet.
Preview published at 2220 BST on 10/07/25
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