Richard Mann tipped Rohit Sharma for Man of the Match honours at 12/1 last week – he has bets ranging from 16/1 to 2/1 for the fifth Test at Old Trafford which begins on Friday.
Cricket tips: England v India fifth Test, September 10-14
3pts India to beat England at 2/1 (bet365)
2pts Dawid Malan to make a first-innings fifty at 9/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Dawid Malan top England first-innings batsman at 11/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Cheteshwar Pujara to make a first-innings century at 8/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Cheteshwar Pujara to be Man of the Match at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Ravindra Jadeja to be Man of the Match at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
INDIA were outstanding at The Oval and must be backed to finish the job in the fifth Test at Old Trafford.
Having encountered the worst of the batting conditions last week – firstly on day one when asked to bat under gloomy skies when the wicket was tinged with live grass, and then again on the third day when the clouds rolled in and forced Rohit Sharma to dig deep for his first overseas Test century – India still found a way to record a resounding 157-run success. Between India’s two batting innings, the bowlers kept their side in the contest on day two when England had threatened to run away with the match, before taking 10 wickets with a brilliant and skilful display on the fifth day just as a desperately flat pitch threatened to thwart their hopes. It was a stunning victory, displaying the many facets of this fine side and the numerous match-winners within it.
India have most bases covered in all conditions, and though their batting hasn’t completely clicked into gear this summer, Rohit, KL Rahul and now Cheteshwar Pujara are scoring enough runs – in the face of a very good home bowling line-up – to allow their own attack, one full of depth, quality and variety, to do the rest. While England have recalled Jack Leach to their squad for an Old Trafford surface that has spun all season, India must surely bring back Ravi Ashwin; the number one spinner in the world and England’s chief tormentor in the winter. India are also expected to freshen up their seamers, too, with Mohammed Shami – the pick of their bowlers in the third Test at Headingley – likely to return.
Anderson and Robinson running on empty as India surge
England, on the other hand, might be forced to ask 39-year-old James Anderson to play his fifth Test in six weeks despite him clocking up over 163 overs in the series already. A late check on Ollie Robinson will also be required, while Joe Root would be asking a lot of Chris Woakes to follow 47 overs at The Oval by backing up so quickly in Manchester. We must not forget that Woakes has played next to no red-ball cricket since last summer.
Despite his age and obvious signs of weariness last week, I’d be staggered if Anderson allowed the word ‘rest’ to be uttered in his direction, and he will be joined by Mark Wood whose extra pace will be suited to Old Trafford and who should be able to get some reverse swing given the dry condition of the square in Manchester.
Still, while England will be buoyed by the prospect of any sideways movement having found so little in London, India demonstrated last week that Jasprit Bumrah and co are streets ahead in that department, and under such circumstances, the hosts will be in trouble once more. Much of the talk in recent days has been about the prospect of spin dominating this fifth Test, and once again, under such conditions, it is hard to see Moeen Ali and Leach matching Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja.
As the fourth Test so starkly displayed, India are an exceptional outfit on good, true batting surfaces that tend not to facilitate extreme amounts of conventional swing and seam movement. Their batsmen are almost unstoppable on flat pitches, and their bowlers are capable of making things happen where other teams can’t. It’s a frightening proposition and with Old Trafford promising to be similar to The Oval in many ways – a hard, true pitch but offering more spin – England will need something special in order to square the series.
Without Ben Stokes and Jofra Archer, I just can’t see that happening and an indifferent weather forecast has seen the draw price for the fifth Test contract and the tourists pushed out to 2/1. Old Trafford is generally a result ground so I won’t fret over the prospect of losing some play and fully intend to go in on the visitors again.
I think it’s important to highlight that while spin and reverse swing should feature this week, England made scores of 469/9 declared and 369 when batting first on this ground against West Indies last year, while they also chased down 277 against Pakistan in the same summer. The bowlers may well be hoping for some respite in Manchester, but I’m not expecting a minefield, and in the first innings in particular, there should be runs to be made.
Malan ideally suited to Old Trafford conditions
As such, I’m certainly not about to abandon DAWID MALAN despite him failing to capitalise on a really good start (31) in the first innings last week. As I’ve argued for a while now, Malan is a terrific player of quick bowling, and the fact his sole Test hundred to date came at Perth only enforces the belief that grounds like The Oval and Old Trafford will suit ideally.
A missed opportunity in London was frustrating, but I identified these last two Tests for Malan to score runs ever since he was recalled to the side and his silky 70 at Leeds showcased what he can do.
Rohit was a 12/1 winner in the Man of the Match market for these pages at The Oval, having failed to make hay following half-centuries at Lord’s and Headingley, but trusting your instincts and backing your judgement are key principals of betting and that often means going in again after a bad beat. Just as with Rohit, I’m convinced these are the conditions in which Malan can prosper and I’m happy to roll the dice once more.
While Jadeja caused Malan significant problems when landing the ball in the rough last week – and Ashwin will be a big challenge, too – we are talking about betting on the first innings here when the pitch will be at its best, and Malan is still likely to do most of his batting against the fast bowlers.
Malan in the TOP ENGLAND BATSMAN market at 11/2 and to make a FIRST-INNINGS FIFTY at 9/4 will be my preferred method of attack for the second match running.
For India, I do think Rohit could be hard to stop again having played beautifully at The Oval for his maiden overseas Test century, one which initially dragged the visitors out of trouble and then helped set up the game for Virat Kohli's men.
Rohit didn’t relent when making 345 runs against England in the winter, nor do I expect him to do so here, but while he was richly deserving of his Man of the Match award at The Oval, these awards are emotive and awarded by members of the host broadcaster – in this case the peerless Sky Sports Cricket team. The fact Rohit had come so close to that first away hundred a few times in the series already clearly helped his cause on Monday, and he might need something even better this time around.
Take Jadeja and Pujara for more Man of the Match profit
I’m not at all discounting Rohit – and I think playing in the Man of the Match market is a must when so heavily favouring one team over the other – but you rarely get back-to-back winners in this market, and this time I’m going to take a punt on the aforementioned pair of RAVINDRA JADEJA and CHETESHWAR PUJARA.
Jadeja could well be overshadowed by the expected return of Ashwin, but with Kohli at the helm, that selection is no guarantee, and I thought the left-armer did a terrific job on the final day at The Oval when picking up a couple of crucial wickets and conceding less than two runs per over. He got better with bowling there, having not actually bowled as many overs as he might have expected in the series so far, and he should be cherry ripe in Manchester.
Crucially, his promotion to number five in the batting order might extend to this match given the current struggles endured by Ajinkya Rahane, and having two strings to his bow makes him an appealing proposition at 16/1.
Pujara will have to rely solely on his bat if he is to return a winner, but he's done really well to keep his detractors at bay in the last few weeks, growing with confidence as the series has gone on. His second-innings 45 at Lord’s was hard work, but he deserved a century in Leeds before falling in the 90’s, while he looked very good when making another fifty on Saturday.
He appears primed for a big score and I’ll take him TO MAKE A CENTURY IN THE FIRST INNINGS at 8/1 and to claim MAN OF THE MATCH honours at 16/1.
It’s been a summer with just about everything: two wonderful visiting Test teams in New Zealand and India, a first look at The Hundred and Joe Root’s ascent to the top of the world rankings. Manchester now represents England’s last chance to take something from weeks of toil and sweat, but the mountain facing them is tall and vast.
We’ve been promised an Indian Summer for some time now; perhaps it’s finally about to arrive.
Published at 1100 BST on 08/09/21
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