Richard Mann previews the fifth and final Test of what has been a thrilling Ashes summer – check out his best bets here.
Cricket tips: Fifth Ashes Test, England v Australia
2pts Ben Stokes to make a first innings fifty at 23/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
2pts Ollie Robinson top England first innings bowler at 7/2 (General)
0.5pts Ollie Robinson to be Man of the Match at 20/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
*Ollie Robinson was left out of the first XI after publication
Australia will keep the Urn, but there is still much to play for when a thoroughly engrossing series delivers its final chapter at the Oval on Thursday. England might not be able to win the series, or regain the Urn, but as Stokes said on Sunday night, there are more important things than the ‘Ashes’ and drawing a series as special as this one has been from 2-0 behind would still rate a fine accomplishment for his team.
Make no mistake, England were desperate to win the series and Ashes – and I believe they would have done so had rain not washed away close to two days of play in Manchester last week – but they still have much to gain in the fifth Test.
Drawing any series against the World Test champions in no mean feat, but doing so after their philosophy, execution and even leadership group had been called into question would be satisfying. It would give vindication to coach Brendon McCullum and captain Ben Stokes and silence those doubters who came out of the woodwork after Lord’s.
For Australia, drawing the 2019 series having led going into the final match at the Oval wasn’t enough, and though the Urn was retained, then-captain Tim Paine cut a frustrated figure after that match. By his own admission, coach Justin Langer had feelings bordering on fury, rather than frustration, and Pat Cummins and Usman Khawaja have been quick to point out this time around that the job is not yet finished.
I’ve never bought into the whole ‘retaining the Ashes’ thing. You either win the series, lose the series, or draw it. What happened two years ago on a different continent bears no relevance. If Manchester City and Real Madrid draw in the final of the Champions League, you don’t have people scouring the history books to see who won the previous meeting to decide where the trophy goes.
This is just another nonsensical quirk of cricket and I’m not sure the players themselves pay much attention to it. Fans and media may like to claim bragging rights, but if Australia win or draw the fifth Test, they will be delighted. Should they lose it, they will be disappointed, and England in turn elated.
It's for that reason I don’t envisage motivation being an issue, and that’s a good starting point when trying to have a bet. The last thing we want is to be questioning who will turn up and who won’t. To my mind, this is still a big match and I’m expecting another exciting five days.
Bowling depth key to England's revival
Another thing I’ve never really bought into is ‘momentum’, but expect to hear a lot about it in the build-up to the final Test. England apparently now have it because they won in Leeds and would’ve won in Manchester had the English weather not had its say.
After Lord’s, we were told that Australia had all the momentum and were thus going to win the series 4-0 or 5-0. Perhaps Headingley was a ‘momentum shift’, then. That’s the latest corker I’ve heard in the last week when in reality, whoever plays the best cricket at the Oval and wins the key moments will highly likely be victorious.
For my money, England are in the better position, not because they have momentum, but because their style of cricket has again got Australia rattled – the difference is that in Leeds and Manchester they were ruthless enough to make positions of dominance count where they had failed in the first two matches.
England had Australia rattled in the first hour at Edgbaston, only to press the aggressive gauge too far. It was the same with the bat in the first innings at Lord’s, where poor catching also cost them again. Since then, the batting has been more controlled, without losing its positive outlook, and the catches have started to stick.
The other big factor is something I alluded to at the start of the summer. Australia have made a big song and dance about the depth in their fast bowling, but three matches into this series and it was once again clear to see their over-reliance on Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood.
It’s been that way for a while now and having flattered to deceive early in his Test career, Scott Boland looks to have been found out against stronger opposition, while Australia patently don’t rate Michael Neser highly enough to let him add to his two Test caps. Looking into the future, things could unravel pretty quickly for this team when the ‘big three’ are no longer around to do the heavy lifting with the ball.
More immediately, Cummins looked jaded as he clocked up his fifth Test of the tour at Old Trafford, while Starc was in the wars in that match. Hazlewood now faces the prospect of back-to-back Tests, something Australia have been at pains to avoid with his fragile body. I can’t see how all three don’t play again, but I suspect Australia will be hoping the recent heavy rain seen across England means there is plenty in the pitch at the Oval and that they don’t face the prospect of toiling for two days on another flat wicket.
England have shown their fast-bowling stocks to be in much better shape. Rightly or wrongly, Chris Woakes and Mark Wood sat on the sidelines for the first two matches of the series, and they could afford the luxury of omitting James Anderson in Leeds and then Ollie Robinson last week. We shouldn’t forget that Jofra Archer and Ollie Stone would have been firmly in the mix for this series without injury, in which case Josh Tongue, England’s best bowler at Lord’s, would still be waiting to make his Test debut.
There were reportedly a few sore bodies in the England camp on Monday morning, but they have the option of bringing back Robinson and Tongue this week to freshen things up, whereas Australia know that any changes they make to their pace attack considerably weakens it. It’s for that reason England should be favourites at the Oval, for all the unsettled weather raises the prospect of one team gaining a significant advantage in terms of batting conditions, and thus dampens enthusiasm for a bet in the match market.
Solid Stokes can step up again
The side markets are still a strong source of interest, however, and I have no qualms in sticking with BEN STOKES TO MAKE A FIRST INNINGS FIFTY for the fourth time in five innings after he produced another fine hand (51) in Manchester – rewarding these pages with an 11/4 winner.
Stokes has made a career out of bringing his best form to the big series and don’t worry about the loss of the Ashes curbing his determination. Stokes made a crucial 67 as England won the corresponding fixture on this ground four years ago to help England level the series, though his 115 against South Africa in 2017 remains his best score at the Oval.
The tempo of Stokes' batting this summer has been most impressive, finding the perfect balance between attack and defence at precisely the right moments, and Australia have struggled to bowl to him since Nathan Lyon was ruled out of the series. 23/10 for a first innings fifty still looks too big.
Robinson set for successful return
As I mentioned earlier, England have lots of options with the ball this week, but I’d be very surprised were OLLIE ROBINSON not to return to the starting XI, and I’ll be backing him for TOP ENGLAND FIRST INNINGS BOWLER (7/2) and in the MAN OF THE MATCH market (20/1).
Like the selection decision I expect England to make regarding the Sussex seamer, Robinson is a pick based very much on conditions and his record at the Oval, and his skills, make him the perfect fit for this venue.
The Oval has long suited big, tall seam bowlers who challenge the fourth stump from back of a length – think Glenn McGrath and Steve Harmison who both excelled here – and Robinson is very similar in style. He might not have Harmison’s pace, but he's more skilful and is very similar in that he likes to bring the ball back into the right-handers off the seam, and gets lots of bounce.
McGrath was very similar in method, though that's where the comparisons must end.
Robinson’s numbers at the Oval would suggest we are on to something. He has played two Test matches here so far, claiming 12 wickets at an average 19.33, and he was Man of the Match when ripping through South Africa at this venue last summer. I reckon England have had this match pencilled in as a definite for Robinson and that was part of the reason why there was seemingly no issue with him not playing at Old Trafford following his back spasm in the previous match.
By his own account, he was fully fit and available for selection last week, so I see no reason why England would be wary of bringing him back following a good break since Leeds, and we know how highly Stokes rates his man. The one nagging doubt must be that Robinson was at times down on pace in the first two matches, but they were played on two very docile pitches and he was tasked with bowling an unhealthy number of bouncers. Nevertheless, he still managed 10 wickets at 28.40.
With Stuart Broad looking a little weary in Manchester, Anderson struggling for wickets, and neither Woakes nor Wood definite starters given the schedule and their recent injury records, Robinson could easily be England’s main man this week and his course and distance form certainly suggests he’s up to the job.
Preview posted at 1520 BST on 24/07/2023
More Ashes content:
- Ground guides: The Oval
- Watch: Cricket Only Bettor podcast
- Paul Krishnamurty's In-play betting masterclass
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