Get the latest in-play betting advice from Richard Mann ahead of the second day of the fourth Ashes Test at Old Trafford.
England got more time on the field than perhaps they expected on day four of the fourth Test, but having managed just one wicket their hopes of keeping the Ashes alive took a major hit.
Now out to 11/4 with Sky Bet, they need five wickets and potentially time for a run chase after Australia got to within 61, but it's the weather that seems likely to scupper things. Sunday's forecast shows an 80% chance of rain throughout and perhaps even some thunder.
Draw backers might be looking to lay off their position at short odds, that outcome trading at around 2/7, as a fabulous series heads towards a most frustrating conclusion in Manchester.
The third day of the fourth Test belonged to England, yet their hopes of salvaging the Ashes depend so much on English weather that the betting is just about as it was before: the hosts and the draw inseparable.
At 5/6 from 11/10, the market reflects Australia's now virtually non-existent prospects of sealing the Ashes in style, but England need six wickets in two days and that may be a problem. At the time of writing, rain is all but guaranteed throughout most of Saturday and most of Sunday, too.
It would be a shame for anyone bar the most ardent Australia fan, or those who've piled into them to win the series or indeed for the fourth Test to be drawn, were this thrilling Ashes series to end in the dampest of damp squibs. But it looks entirely possible.
All markets must be treated with caution. Betting on the weather is fraught with danger and all sub-markets depend on a level of action which is far from guaranteed. We can only hope, although those on Richard Mann's 2-2 drawn series wager pre-Ashes perhaps might be among that small cluster who will celebrate every drop that falls.
It's all eyes on the weather – and England captain Ben Stokes – heading into day three of the fourth Test.
At the time of writing the draw and England are both trading a shade above evens on Betfair Exchange, with rain forecast throughout the remaining three days.
How much play is possible may ultimately determine the outcome of the match with England having powered their way into a lead of 67, with six wickets remaining.
When will Stokes declare is the big question and he and Harry Brook seem sure to come out swinging when play resumes.
Unsurprisingly in the circumstances, bookmakers are not offering total first innings runs markets.
Those expecting an early declaration can lay 1.89 about 475+ on the exchanges.
Day two betting update
1pt Jonny Bairstow to make a first innings fifty at 9/4 (General)
Day two at Old Trafford could go a long way to deciding the outcome of this summer’s Ashes series following another hard-fought and absorbing day in Manchester.
England will be happy with their efforts on day one, having gained a strong foothold in the match following their decision to bowl first after Ben Stokes once again won the toss. His thinking was that his four-man seam attack would make use of overcast Manchester skies, but the sun quickly broke through to reveal a hard, true surface which was very good for batting.
Nevertheless, England bowled with skill and enterprise all day and in taking eight Australian wickets for under 300 on the first day, the hosts have given themselves a fine opportunity to go on and win the match, thus levelling the series to set up what would be a mouthwatering finale at the Oval.
Before then, they will need to bat well on Thursday when the forecast is pretty good with some spells of sunshine, conditions not too dissimilar to those Australia failed to make use of on day one.
This is a good pitch and though Moeen Ali might be hopeful it will break up later in the match, there are runs to be made if England can get through the new ball and begin to put more miles in the legs of Pat Cummins and co.
Without Nathan Lyon to control one end, England can stretch this Australia attack if able to keep wickets in hand and lay solid foundations. It might not be very Bazball, but with rain forecast for the weekend, posting a big first innings score and building a significant lead is imperative in order to allow Stokes to dictate terms thereafter.
Mitchell Marsh was a 9/4 winner for these pages on day one, making a fine half-century, and we already have Stokes in the staking plan to do the same when England do come to bat.
I certainly wouldn’t swap that position, and I thought it was telling how the likes of Marsh and Travis Head from numbers six and five respectively appeared to find batting much easier than the top order. Even though making 51, Labuschagne, batting at number three, had to work much harder for his runs than those who followed in the middle order.
With that in mind, I did toy with the idea and playing overs on Harry Brook’s runs. However, I’m still not convinced by him against the short ball and I suspect Cummins in particular will look to give him a working over on a pitch offering decent pace.
That doesn’t worry me with JONNY BAIRSTOW and buoyed by a brilliant catch to dismiss Marsh off the bowling of the impressive Chris Woakes on day one, I’m backing him to make a FIRST INNINGS FIFTY at 9/4.
Bairstow has always been a confidence player. Given the full backing of Stokes and Brendon McCullum last summer, he ruled the world, and he marked his return from injury with a typically aggressive 78 in the first innings of the first Test in Birmingham.
Since then, his keeping has really struggled, with the Yorkshireman putting down a spate of chances. Having been publicly backed by the likes of Stokes and James Anderson in the build-up to this fourth Test, he duly delivered with a crucial one-handed grab that derailed Australia's then realistic hopes of posting in excess of 400.
Don’t be surprised if that feeds into his batting in expected favourable conditions, and likely shielded from the new ball, I don’t want to miss him.
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