Richard Mann has seven bets to consider at big prices for the opening Ashes Test match in Perth, which is expected to begin with a bang on Friday.
Cricket tips: The Ashes, Australia v England
1pt No England first innings fifty at 10/1 (bet365)
1pt No Australia first innings fifty at 14/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Mitchell Starc top Australia first innings batsman at 50/1 (Sporting Index, Spreadex)
0.5pt Michael Neser top Australia first innings batsman at 40/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Brydon Carse top England first innings batsman at 66/1 (Betfred)
0.5pt Zak Crawley most fours in the match at 33/1 (Betway)
0.5pt Jamie Smith most fours in the match at 33/1 (bet365)
After months and months of talking, Australia and England will step back into the ring in Perth on Friday morning and touch gloves once again. Finally, the Ashes are here.
And what a series we have in store, Australia still clinging onto that little urn, but facing the latest chapter of cricket’s most famous story with an ageing side, and more immediately, shorn of the services of captain Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood for the first Test.
Former England fast bowler turned pundit Stuart Broad recently quipped that the current home outfit was ‘probably the worst Australian team since 2010.’ Tongue in cheek perhaps, but there is a real belief that this represents England’s best chance of winning in Australia for 15 years.
And that is because of this ageing Australia line-up, a top three that hasn’t convinced in the last 18 months, and those injuries to two of the best fast bowlers in the game, half of a pace quartet that has been unmatched, especially at home, for the best part of a decade.
Add to the fact that England bring a settled batting line-up Down Under for the first time since 2010, a dynamic top seven that will absolutely refuse to take a backward step and will be backed to the hilt to do so – and the tourists could well put it up to Australia in Perth.
Make no mistake, Cummins and Hazlewood leave big holes to fill. When Australia hosted India in Perth a year ago, they combined for six wickets in the first innings as the visitors were bundled out for only 150 on a barmy first day that saw 17 wickets fall.
Can Australia cope without Cummins?
In Scott Boland, who averages a remarkable 12.63 in Test matches at home, Australia already had a darn good replacement for Cummins, while Brendan Doggett is not someone England should underestimate. Doggett has good wheels, and that rare gift of what appears to be effortless pace. His outswinger is dangerous when it goes late and the South Australia paceman is favourite to get the nod over Michael Neser.
But Boland and Doggett are replacing two genuine thoroughbreds, and, in the case of Cummins, one of the great Australian fast bowlers of any generation. England will be mighty relieved they don’t have to worry about that pair in Perth having warmed up against the Lions on a slow, low pitch at Lilac Hill that would’ve had club bowlers down my way in the armpit of the north shaking their heads, never mind in Perth.
The culture shock we would usually expect for England’s batsmen when that ball starts flying through at head height will be lessened by the absence of Cummins in particular, and as good as he is, Boland is not quick. In fact, I’d be happy facing the 36-year-old trundler in a floppy hat. I'd have to think twice about wearing a thigh guard.
That’s the first dig of the winter at the Aussies. Expect plenty more on these pages in the coming weeks.
Perth does feel like England’s chance to make an early mark on the series. Win here and it really is game on, and pressure could quickly mount on Australia chairman of selectors, George Bailey. If Australia draw first blood, England will be in big trouble with Cummins and Hazlewood pushing hard for Brisbane.
Those injuries have seen England shorten up for the first Test in recent days, with 31/20 the best on offer at the time of writing, and Australia now available at 4/5. I’ll be fascinated to see which way the Exchange goes through the week, especially once we get another look at the wicket at the Optus Stadium.
I say this because I think this Test, and the series, is all about conditions. As I’ve argued in my series preview here, England have a real chance if the pitches are flat throughout and allow their attacking batting line-up to let rip. But if the pitches are as challenging as we saw here last winter when India toured, England could very easily come unstuck.
What is impossible for anyone to predict at this stage is who gets the best of those conditions, and when, and this will be crucial this week. In last year’s Test match on this ground, it was carnage on day one as 17 wickets fell, but batting became much easier later in the match with India plundering 487-6 in the third innings.
Though India chose to bat first last year, my suspicion is that both sides would prefer to bowl first at the toss, and that has certainly been the England way under Ben Stokes. All the noises coming out of Perth are that we can expect a similar surface to 12 months ago, and if that is indeed the case, it could be tough work for batting in that first session.
When you put all that into the melting pot, it means taking a view on that match market at this stage makes little sense – not when there are other markets worth exploring.
Go low in first innings
I’ve long held the view that low runs in Perth would feature in my staking plan this week, especially early in the match, so backing no fifty in the first innings at 12/1 with bet365 immediately jumped off the page.
Last year’s first day surface was a real challenge for batting, and England have the pace in their bowling, and Australia the guile, to cause damage with the new ball.
Moreover, there are clearly enough chinks in both batting line-ups, considering England’s light preparation for alien conditions, or Australia’s lack of recent top-order output, to suggest there could be low scores early in the match.
I might be in danger of placing too much importance on last year’s result here, but 41 and 26 – both down the order – were the respective top scores in that India match as the pacers ran amok in favourable conditions.
It could be very tough work early in the match and perhaps the best way to play is splitting stakes on NO ENGLAND FIRST INNINGS FIFTY at 10/1 and NO AUSTRALIA FIRST INNINGS FIFTY at 14/1, with bet365 again offering this niche market. With a little bit of luck, at least one of the first innings will be a car crash.
I did also consider backing no century in the match at 7/2, but batting does generally get easier here once the hot sun burns away any grass on the pitch, and I do wonder about England in that scenario, with off-spinner Shoaib Bashir not a certain starter having taken a pasting in last week’s warm-up match.
Big prices stand out in top batsman markets
MITCHELL STARC will be one of those seamers tasked with making early inroads with the ball, but don’t forget that he won the AUSTRALIA TOP BATSMAN market against India last year when defying Jasprit Bumrah and co for 112 balls as he battled to 26.
Starc has more form with the bat in this part of Australia, too, having blasted 68 not out against a very good South Africa side at the W.A.C.A back in 2012. More recently, there was a spunky, unbeaten half-century against the Proteas in the Test World Championship final at Lord’s in the summer.
He can clearly hold a bat, and likely to bat at number eight in the absence of Cummins, I reckon Starc is worth a dart at odds of 50/1.
Though highly unlikely to play, I will be adding MICHAEL NESER to the staking plan in the same market at 40/1. Remember, it’s stakes returned for a non-runner.
Neser is a late call-up following Hazlewood’s hamstring injury, and looks set to carry the drinks, as he has done for much of his international career.
However, don’t rule anything out at this stage, and Neser is a very good batsman with five First Class hundreds and 18 fifties. He made 35 in one of his two Test matches thus far, so has already shown his hand with the bat at the highest level.
He’s viewed as a genuine all-rounder for Queensland, as he was in County Cricket for Glamorgan, so should Australia make the late decision to add him to their bowling attack, his batting could become very handy.
Take the 40/1 just in case.
From number seven, there is a good case to be made for Alex Carey at double-figure odds on the back of a hot run of form, particularly in this format.
However, I want to keep going with the big prices in the first innings, with the same strategy adopted in the TOP ENGLAND BATSMAN market. That means Jamie Smith is overlooked in favour of BRYDON CARSE at 66/1.
If he can stay fit, Carse could have a big series with the ball, with his combative attitude and appetite for the fight suggesting he is made for Ashes cricket.
He is a very decent batsman, too, as he demonstrated last summer when putting together scores of 38, 56 and 47 against a strong India bowling attack when a solid technique and clean ball-striking was in evidence.
Lower-order runs could be key this winter, meaning Carse fits the bill for England, and I have him batting at number eight in this side, unless England opt to select Will Jacks as their frontline spinner ahead of Bashir. That wouldn’t kill the bet, though, as Starc showed when top-scoring from number nine here last year.
Here’s hoping for something similar 12 months on.
Back the boundary hitters
Before signing off, I want to highlight an interesting market bet365 and Betway are offering, which is MOST FOURS TO BE SCORED IN THE MATCH.
Though I have reservations about top-order batsmen this week, the 33/1 (Betway) about ZAK CRAWLEY looks very big given Australian conditions promise to suit his batting style, and that he plundered 21 fours in his epic 189 against this opposition in Manchester in 2023.
He signed off with 16 fours in the final Test of the summer against India when just pipped by Brook, who is a 7/1 chance to win the market this week, and Crawley's strong back-foot game suggests he should enjoy batting in Perth if somehow able to avoid the expected fireworks on day one.
England, much more than Australia, are real boundary hitters, especially JAMIE SMITH who I lavished praise on in my series preview on Sunday.
Smith blasted 30 fours in a single match at Edgbaston last summer with the type of counter-attacking display that England will need from him on this tour, so 33/1 about the Surrey man is too big to ignore.
If either man clicks this week, they could make mincemeat of the short straight boundaries on this ground, and current quotes aren't expected to last through the series.
Posted at 1340 GMT on 18/11/25
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