Richard Mann has already bagged 13/8 and 6/1 winners in the second Test, and he's backing England to bounce back on day three at the Gabba.
Cricket tips: Day thee betting update
2pts England to win the second Test at 6.2 (Betfair Exchange)
We’ve all stuck in the knife into England over the last few weeks, me more than most, but one of the defining characteristics of Bazball is how it has bred remarkable powers of recovery within this current England team.
It began right at the start of Brendon McCullum’s tenure as head coach, at Lord’s in the summer of 2022, as an enthralling Test with New Zealand swung one way and then the other before England eventually pulled off an impressive run chase.
Later that summer, England’s batting was again in tatters as Trent Boult ran amok at Headingley, only for Jonny Bairstow and Jamie Overton to turn the match on its head with a couple of sessions of madness.
That madness has continued, even in the last Ashes series at home in 2023, England coming from 2-0 down to draw the series 2-2. Were it not for rain in Manchester, they could well have been the team holding the urn right now.
For cricket punters, and traders in particular, Bazball has been a breath of fresh air. I’ve said this many times before, but if you’ve been willing to go against the run of the game with this England team, and bet contrarily with or against, it has so often paid dividends. You only have to look back at the first Test in Perth for a recent example of that.
That’s not to say it’s easy. I’ve spent most of the morning criticising England’s lack of skill with the ball, longing to see James Anderson marking out his run-up to offer a semblance of control, but despite all the frustrations that day two at the Gabba brought, I don’t believe England are dead and buried.
Australia currently lead by 44 runs with four wickets remaining, grateful are they for a spate of dropped catches from England, but no doubt conscious the second new ball is only seven overs away.
And that new ball has proven key so far. All the talk pre-game was about the pink ball moving sideways under lights, but that just hasn’t happened, because by the time the lights have come on the ball has generally been older, softer and, frankly, done very little.
Mitchell Starc’s late burst on Thursday night was more down to some loose batting from England than any lateral movement in the air or off the pitch, and his new-ball spell a few hours earlier was much more impressive.
The same can be said of Australia’s innings, with Jofra Archer looking very good with the new ball and enticing a fat edge from Travis Head which Jamie Smith should've gobbled up. Late in the evening, the runs flowed, and only a poor shot from Cameron Green followed by a wonder-catch from Will Jacks dragged England back into the contest.
But back into the contest they are, with the tail only one wicket away and the likelihood England can keep that first innings deficit under 100.
That will still leave them behind the eight ball, but it will also mean they have the best of batting conditions for a session or so in daylight, by which point they could well have reached parity, and that ball will be losing its hardness.
This all might seem like a leap of faith right now, but we’ve seen on countless occasions how Zak Crawley, hot from runs in the first innings, and Ben Duckett have been able to rapidly eat into big deficits.
The Headingley Test match of last summer saw India post 471 batting first, but in under 30 overs of England's reply, they had 130 on the board. And in the fourth innings of that game, the same pair put on 188 in 42 overs for the first wicket to set up a spectacular England run chase. India had Jasprit Bumrah playing in that match as well.
What remains true is that this England batting line-up is capable of spectacular things, marvellous highs and frustrating bloody lows, but while conditions remain good for batting – and my view hasn’t changed on that – they can still turn things around in Brisbane.
Crawley could be key up top, but I’ve been really impressed with Ollie Pope’s game so far on this tour, Joe Root has incredible second-innings numbers, while just about anything could happen with the dangerous trio of Harry Brook, Ben Stokes and Smith.
The final nail in the coffin for me is this Australia attack. Starc has been outstanding so far, and if he could please take another four wickets to deliver a 14/1 winner, I will happily build a statue of him in my garden.
But after Starc, do England have that much to fear? Ordinarily, I’d be very worried about Nathan Lyon in the third innings, but he was inexplicably left out of the Australia starting XI on Thursday, meaning Scott Boland will need to show up better than he did in the first innings when taking a pasting late on.
Rookie Brendan Doggett and Michael Neser didn’t pull up any trees on Thursday either, and England must feel that if they can just keep a lid on Starc, whose workload already has been significant, then they could really stretch a home bowling attack which is missing big guns Lyon, Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood.
Remember, we were told in the build-up to this match how crucial the toss was at the Gabba, and that batting last was a no-no, as highlighted when West Indies bowled out Australia cheaply to secure a famous victory on this ground in 2024.
If England can somehow get ahead of the game with a strong display with the bat, it could be game on.
Of course, there are lots of ifs and buts to this argument, and a big leap of faith needed, too, but this is Bazball and this is what England do.
Take the 6.2 on the Betfair Exchange is my advice, with the view to trading out the initial stake should England land a few big punches as they remain so capable of doing.
Posted at 14:35 GMT on 05/12/25
Cricket tips: Day two betting update
1.25pts Marnus Labuschagne to make a first innings fifty at 13/8 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Sky Bet)
0.75pt Marnus Labuschagne to make a first innings century at 5/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Sky Bet)
Joe Root set the record straight with a brilliant, defiant century – his first in Australia – on day one of the second Ashes Test to haul England to 325-9 at the close of play in Brisbane.
England found themselves in big trouble when Mitchell Starc reduced the tourists to 5-2, and then later 264-9, but with the help of Zak Crawley (76) and Jofra Archer (32), Root ensured his team will have runs to play with on the second day.
And they’ll need them, too, judging by what looks to be a really good surface at the Gabba. As ever at this venue, the bounce was true and consistent, and even when the lights took effect just before the third session, the pink ball didn’t really do that much either off the pitch or through the air.
Perhaps that was down to the fact that Australia were again reliant on one man with the ball, and when Starc – whose six wickets confirmed an early 6/1 winner for these pages – wasn't bowling, there was a clear drop-off in terms of skill and intensity.
That said, England were guilty of gifting wickets, namely Ben Stokes who ran himself out when calling for an improbable run, and earlier Harry Brook whose hack to slip wasn’t the only poor shot he played in another eventful but largely gormless stay at the crease.
The overriding feeling here is that this is a very good pitch. Facing the new ball might be tough, though that is always the case, and there will be a significant challenge to come for Australia when they come to bat under lights, but I would still expect the hosts to bat big.
This is certainly a better surface than the one we saw for the day-night Test on this ground in January, 2024 when the West Indies pulled off a memorable victory, and the weather is set fair for the next few days with another hot day forecast tomorrow.
Moreover, there is every chance this pitch will be at its best on day two, and as we always say about the pink ball, it can be unforgiving for the bowlers in those day sessions, especially with no frontline spinner to call upon.
The even-money with bet365 for Australia to claim a first-innings lead doesn’t look a bad bet at this stage, though I would prefer to wait for the change of innings to see what the Australia runs lines are.
For now, it’s the batsmen milestones that interest me, and MARNUS LABUSCHAGNE makes plenty of appeal.
Though somewhat going under the radar, Labuschagne made a classy half-century in the successful run chase in Perth, maintaining the strong form that saw him reel off five hundreds for Queensland before the start of this series.
Labuschagne is a class act, for my money just about the best in this home batting line-up, and a Test average in excess of fifty in Australia confirms what a tough nut to crack he is on home soil.
And this is very much Labuschagne’s turf, the Gabba being his home ground and affording him a big advantage on one of the bounciest pitches in Australia.
Indeed, and it shows in the numbers, with Labuschagne having made two hundreds and two fifties on this ground from 12 Test innings, with an average of 51.00. To add more meat to the bones, Labuschagne averages 63.86 against the pink ball, with four centuries, from only 15 innings.
As such, I’m happy to back LABUSCHAGNE TO MAKE A FIFTY at 13/8 and LABUSCHAGNE TO MAKE A CENTURY (5/1) on a second day that Australia could well dominate.
Posted at 14:00 GMT on 04/12/25
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