Chris Oliver looks ahead to a groundbreaking night in boxing and is backing the experience of Claressa Shields to prove decisive against Savannah Marshall.
Boxing betting tips: Saturday October 15
2pts Claressa Shields by decision 11/8 (Betway)
1pt Alycia Baumgardner by decision 11/2 (General)
1pt Deontay Wilder to win in rounds 5-8 23/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
It may be five weeks later than planned, but the mouth-watering contest between Savannah Marshall and Claressa Shields on Saturday night should be worth the wait.
Originally postponed at the 11th hour due to the passing of The Queen last month, it's all systems go for the undisputed middleweight title fight in what seems another pivotal moment for the female game. After Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano wowed a packed Madison Square Garden with their barnstormer in April, this is another great matchup between two elite fighters which has all the ingredients to elevate women's boxing even further.
Both unbeaten in 12 fights, they are undoubtedly the two best middleweights in the world and all four major belts are on the line. Adding extra spice to the contest is the fact that Marshall is the only person to ever beat Shields in a boxing ring (amateur or professional) and their rivalry has been brewing since that contest in the World Championships in early 2012.
Another layer to this intriguing bout is their polar opposite personalities and styles. In Shields, you have the loud, brash American who can trash talk all day long and she has the silky skills to back it all up. Whereas Marshall is a quiet and unassuming character who lets her fighting do the talking and her string of knockouts have provided the kind of viral video moments so often lacking in women's boxing, largely due to the two-minute rounds.
There has been an interesting swing in the betting since their original fight date, when Shields was a slight underdog at 11/10. The tables have now turned, with 4/5 the best you can get about the visitor and Marshall out to 11/10, but it remains very much a pick 'em fight with the bookies.
Shields calls herself the GWOAT (greatest woman of all-time) and while that may not be the catchiest moniker, there's no denying what she has achieved so far is very impressive. She bounced back from the aforementioned Marshall defeat to win Olympic gold at both London 2012 and Rio 2016, which sandwiched a brace of World Championship triumphs, before quickly beginning her domination of the paid ranks. She is already a three-weight world champion and, yet to be pushed remotely close, you can count the number of rounds she has lost on one hand.
Marshall's career has been more of a slow burner, but it has certainly caught fire now. Great things were expected of her following her gold medal in the 2012 Worlds, but she admitted the pressure was too much when she was beaten in the first round at the London Olympics a few months later, and then she missed out on the podium again in Rio.
Her professional career only really took off when she teamed up with Peter Fury, but their trainer/fighter relationship seems to be something special, and she has flourished under his guidance. Since winning the WBO belt by halting Hannah Rankin in seven rounds, she has recorded three eye-catching early knockouts, and she still looks to be improving.
Shields clearly boasts the better CV, not only winning world titles in three weights but she has beaten three previously undefeated foes in her last four fights and has done so with ease. However, she has only stopped two of her 12 victims, whereas 10 of Marshall's 12 wins have come via stoppage and it isn't a case of who she has beaten, but how she has beaten them that gives her claims here.
With that in mind, it's easy to see why this is being billed as boxer versus puncher. Shields boasts an impressive skillset, with fast hands and feet allowing her to get in range to fire off rapid, explosive combinations and then back out again. She's an excellent judge of distance and is also very capable of countering effectively on the back foot.
Pound for pound, Marshall is probably the biggest puncher in the female game and, carrying her left hand low with her relaxed style, she generates serious power with her long levers. Patient and economical, she is accurate and really makes it count when she does throw.
There is more to her game than just power, though, and she can use her tall frame to box very well behind her excellent jab when she wants to. In fact, it must be noted that boxing behind her lead left hand is how Marshall beat Shields in the amateurs a decade ago, so it may not be a case of having to knock Shields out to win here and she could have success if 'keeping it long'.
Shields can start fast and aim to press the action from the get-go, looking to utilise her speed to dart in and out with impressive flurries. The American puts her punches together so well and, boasting a very good engine, she can work to a high pace for the full 10 rounds. Therefore, it's important Marshall lands something meaningful early doors in order to slow the favourite down and things could get very interesting if she does, as we are yet to see how Shields reacts when chasing a fight.
Marshall will fancy her chances of detonating one of her bombs at some point over the scheduled 20 minutes of action and how Shields responds when she does could decide which way this goes. If Shields takes it well and continues to work, then Marshall could be in trouble, but the Hartlepool native could really pile on the pressure if she makes a dent in the double Olympic champion.
Plenty will fancy the power of Marshall to end the argument and will be tempted by the 7/2 available about a stoppage for the home fighter, but it's 4/9 that this goes the distance and I agree that the judges will be needed here. For what appears an evenly-matched contest, the 3/1 about Marshall getting the nod on the cards could well be too big, but I am struggling to go against the experience of Shields.
This is a huge event, the kind Marshall won't have experienced before, and having frozen when a strong favourite in the London games 10 years ago, how she handles this pressure is a slight concern. Shields, on the other hand, seems to thrive on the big occasion and I think it could bring out the very best in her.
That was certainly the case when she faced Christina Hammer in 2019 in what was billed as the biggest fight in women's boxing at the time. Despite Hammer bringing a perfect 24-fight record to the table, Shields put on a clinic to win just about every round and coast to a clear points success.
It may not be as easy for Shields this time, but her pedigree, experience and all-round game can take her to another DECISION VICTORY at 11/8.
Baumgardner looks the bet
This all-female card could be a real watershed moment for the sport and another undisputed contest features as the co-main event, as Mikaela Mayer and ALYCIA BAUMGARDNER battle it out for all the marbles at super featherweight.
Similar to Shields and Marshall, there is genuine bad blood here and their styles should gel to produce an all-action contest which has the potential to steal the show.
Unbeaten in 17 outings, Mayer is a well-schooled all-rounder who makes good use of her height and has a good work-rate. She proved she has heart as well as skill when coming through a war with Maiva Hamadouche last November before boxing beautifully in her shutout points win over Jennifer Han in April.
Baumgardner is well known on these shores after she burst on to the world scene by taking Terri Harper's belts with a devastating fourth-round knockout in Sheffield 11 months ago, before returning to the UK to win every round against Edith Mattysse with a classy performance earlier this year. The shorter of the two, she looks the stronger and not only is she the puncher here, but she also looks the quicker and moves really well.
Quotes of 4/9 (as short as 3/10) about Mayer suggest this all-American grudge match will be a one-sided affair, but Baumgardner (5/2) is a serious threat and seems sure to make the favourite work very hard for her money.
Mayer will want to keep this long and at range, but, given the needle between the two, she could easily be drawn into a scrap (as she was against Hamadouche) and that would play right into the underdog's hands.
Mayer is the more experienced and more rounded fighter, but 8/13 about her winning a decision looks far too short and the 6/1 for Baumgardner doing the same rates the value call at 11/2.
Given how hard it is for the 5'9" Mayer to make 130lbs, the late postponement after getting down to the weight last month and then having to return to the US and fly back again could hardly have been ideal for her. Also, while Mayer may well have peaked at 32, Baumgardner (12-1) still looks to be improving and there could be more to come.
Mayer could well out-work her compatriot with her high-octane style here, but any struggles at the weight in her first UK contest could lessen her output and I don't expect there to be too much between them. With that in mind, BAUMGARDNER BY DECISION is too big for me to pass up.
Wait worthwhile for Wilder?
In the US, DEONTAY WILDER begins his comeback against Robert Helenius at the Barclays Center in New York.
It's just over a year since he was knocked out in his epic third battle with Tyson Fury, and he is entitled to an easier fight on his return. Helenius (31-3) fits that bill and it's hard to see him hearing the final bell against one of the biggest punchers the sport has ever seen.
After shaking off his ring rust, Wilder can record his 42nd knockout between ROUNDS FIVE AND EIGHT at 23/10.
Posted at 1040 BST on 14/10/22
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