Jon Newcombe previews Sunday's Six Nations clash between France and Italy in Lille, where the visitors can put up a fight.
Rugby union betting tips: France vs Italy
3pts Italy (+29) to win on the handicap at evens (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
2pts Thomas Ramos to score a try at 3/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
France vs Italy preview and best bets
- Venue: Stade Pierre Mauroy
- Start time: 15:10 GMT
- TV: ITV
It could be a red-letter day, as well as a red-shirted one, for Italian rugby in Lille this Sunday, with the Azzurri hoping to put in a performance befitting of Giuseppe Garibaldi, the hero of Italian unification and the inspiration behind their change of kit.
The last time they met France, all they had was red faces.
However, they appear to have drawn a line in the sand since that record 73-24 hammering in Rome, and will arrive in Lille, a venue where they’ve done well in the past, with plenty of belief. An 18-15 win over Scotland in round one was followed by last weekend’s 20-13 loss to Ireland, when they deserved more than a losing bonus point.
On their last visit to the city in 2024, Italy were denied a first-ever win in France by the width of a post in one of the most dramatic finishes to a Six Nations game ever seen. In the end, they had to settle for a 13-13 draw.
Now there can be no more excuses or what-ifs. If Italy are to be taken seriously as a Six Nations force, they need to beat one of the big three. The Azzurri still haven’t won against England and you have to go back to 2013 for the last of their successes against France and Ireland.
But other than the fact that France sometimes struggle to put Italy away as easily as you’d expect them to on home soil, it is hard to think of a compelling reason to back them to pull off a shock win. Above all else, they don’t seem to have it in them to score enough points to trouble teams with as good an attack as France’s, but they should get closer than the layers predict.
The median margin in past encounters when France have been the home team is 18 points and I’m inclined to think that they’ll not need as many as 29 points on the handicap, which they're generously awarded by the Flutter firms. Something around 21.5 should be sufficient, given there is probably a three-score difference in terms of quality between the teams, and shopping around for smaller starts and bigger prices could pay off too.
The return of the brilliant Ange Capuozzo to full-back will give Italy a sharper cutting edge, though for every shot he fires, France have multiple threats in their arsenal. Investing in Louis Bielle-Biarrey to score a try is a license to print money at the moment, with the winger bidding to score for a record eighth consecutive championship match. The only thing slowing the Bordeaux speedster down is the amount of cash riding on him, although the odds (4/9) have got so skinny he has almost become unbackable to all but the biggest punters.
Loose forward Charles Ollivon has been our preference when looking for better value in the anytime tryscorer market, but he’s been dropped to the bench, so instead, it might be worth looking at the half-backs, Antoine Dupont and Mathieu Jalibert, and full-back THOMAS RAMOS, as their strike-rates against Italy are better than against other teams.
Dupont has five tries in eight appearances against the Azzurri, Jalibert two in six and Ramos three in seven. Dupont, who was Player of the Match in last year’s fixture, having crossed the Italian line twice, is 6/4, Jalibert 7/4 and Ramos 3/1. The latter gets our vote this time.
Posted at 17:10 GMT on 20/02/26
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