It's been an outstanding start to the new F1 season for Louis Bollard, who returns to preview the Miami Grand Prix.
- F1 returns after an unplanned break
- Louis' tips are +24pts for the season
- ROI so far is over 133%
F1 betting tips: Miami Grand Prix
4pts Williams to score a points finish at 9/2 (betway)
2pts Red Bull to finish on the podium at 7/1 (betway)
2pts Isack Hadjar for a top-six finish at 9/2 (Betfred)
1pt e.w. Lando Norris in the Sprint Race at 14/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
1pt e.w. Charles Leclerc in the Sprint Race at 14/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3)
- Follow Formula One expert Louis Bollard on X
After an unplanned four-week hiatus, Formula One returns this weekend in Miami. This lengthy gap between races has deprived us of two grands prix but has unlocked betting opportunities as while the races did not happen, teams have been busier than ever upgrading their cars.
The two teams I'm going to target this weekend are WILLIAMS and RED BULL, who have failed to impress so far this season but both for good reason; their cars have been significantly overweight.
The month off will have given these two plenty of time to focus on this weekend in particular and we may see Williams leap into the midfield and Red Bull mix it with the leaders.
If Bahrain and Saudi Arabia had taken place I expect we would not be getting juicy prices on offer as the gradual improvement of both teams would be public knowledge. Instead, these teams are being priced up as if they will not have upgrades.
While all teams will have upgrades, these two have the lowest hanging fruit and should make the largest gains which will enable them to outrun their odds.
There are several ways to back these drivers to perform across podiums (Red Bull only), top six finishes or a points finish. We'll take Williams to bag a points finish and Red Bull to get one of their cars onto the podium. There's also value with ISACK HADJAR to finish in the top six at around 4/1.
Sluggish Silver Arrows
While Mercedes remain the team to beat this weekend, there are plenty of reasons to take them on. Firstly, as mentioned above teams will be bringing significant upgrade packages including McLaren bringing a whole new car (we've seen this before in Lando Norris' maiden win in Miami 2024), and secondly a raft of regulations have been introduced to cap the boost power.
All this factored in, it is possible that another team joins the title fight this weekend after taking the win on merit on Sunday, but my preference is take advantage of this over the shorter distance on Saturday. Even without massive leaps in performance, McLaren and Ferrari have already proved they can be a nuisance to the Mercs if they get ahead.
Mercedes have struggled with starts this season and have needed a medium distance to rid themselves of the competition before taking victories, meaning they could be vulnerable in the sprint format.
The Miami circuit is the most suited to these new regulations as cars will have plentiful opportunities to recharge the battery which will address the issues Ferrari have had on long runs.
All this factored in, at the odds I'm backing LANDO NORRIS and CHARLES LECLERC in the sprint, with stakes just about returned in full should either man finish in the first three, and both capable of challenging for the win at big odds.
Other drivers' chances
Kimi Antonelli
Living up to his potential now. Will not have wanted Bahrain and Saudi Arabia cancelled. Enough evidence now to have him favourite in the teammate battle, even if the team as a whole may be vulnerable here as mentioned above.
Oscar Piastri
Has taken well to these new regulations based on limited evidence as he's only started 33% of the races this season. Is the most likely to trouble the Mercs but I prefer his teammate at the prices.
Lewis Hamilton
Loving 2026 on and off track. Is a contender this weekend, but I would want a slightly bigger price compared to Leclerc given there were chinks appearing in his armour last time out.
Fernando Alonso
The nightmare start to the season hasn't crushed his spirit as it looks likely he'll stay with the team for another season, albeit I doubt there's much interest in his seat. Car will eventually turn up to a race and be a point contender at a massive price. Is it this week? Press conferences will guide.
Posted at 10:40 BST on 30/04/26
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