Andy Schooler previews the Wimbledon men’s singles draw – can anyone stop odds-on favourite Novak Djokovic?
Tennis betting tips: Wimbledon men's singles
6pts win Novak Djokovic at 7/10 (Sporting Index)
1pt Roberto Bautista Agut to win the third quarter at 16/1 (BoyleSports)
0.5pt e.w. Alex de Minaur at 80/1 (BetVictor, Sporting Index)
The last 20 years have seen the tennis record books torn up and rewritten by Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and NOVAK DJOKOVIC.
But one significant one record is still in place – Rod Laver remains the only man to have completed the Grand Slam.
Diehard fans of Federer and Nadal will not agree, but it would surely be a fitting end to tennis’ golden era were Djokovic to write his name against that one too.
Having won the Australian and French Opens already, he’s halfway there (as he was in 2016 and 2021) but to stay on track, Wimbledon needs to be captured.
Winning a Grand Slam could never be described as easy but Djokovic has the potential to make it look that way and certainly warrants his tag as odds-on favourite.
After all, this is a man who has won 28 matches in the row at the All England Club, a run taking in four titles. Win again this season and he’ll equal Roger Federer’s tally of eight – yes, another record.
We saw at Roland Garros the Serb’s incredible ability to find his best tennis when it is most needed; people should remember how he struggled during the early stages of the claycourt season.
We haven’t had the chance to assess Djokovic’s grasscourt form – bar an exhibition match victory over Frances Tiafoe at the Hurlingham Club – but that’s become the norm with a player who has now won six of the last eight Wimbledon titles.
There’s no reason to expect anything other than a fully focused, flowing Djokovic when he takes to Centre Court on Monday afternoon and unless something untoward occurs, I’m finding it hard to see him losing over the next fortnight.
It’s not as if there’s a long list of outstanding candidates to replace him as Wimbledon king. In fact, it’s quite the opposite.
None of the other members of the world’s top 10 have ever reached the semi-finals at the All England Club, a fact which highlights how they have yet to fully get to grips with the grass.
Only Carlos Alcaraz (more on him shortly) has really shone during the warm-up events with the likes of Daniil Medvedev, Jannik Sinner and Stefanos Tsitsipas only underlining my view that they aren’t yet ready to win here.
As ever on the grass, a huge server could perhaps knock Djokovic out of his stride if they have a good day – Sam Querrey managed it in 2016, while Kevin Anderson had blown a two-set lead against the Serb the previous year.
On this front, Hubert Hurkacz could be dangerous in the last 16, while Nick Kyrgios and Alexander Bublik fit the bill of someone capable of banging down unreturnables for a couple of hours.
However, the chances of either of the latter two being around for a quarter-final meeting look pretty low given Kyrgios’ lack of matchplay and Halle champion Bublik’s propensity for meltdown – one suspects he’s much more likely to start hitting shots with his racquet handle again than actually reaching a Grand Slam quarter-final.
In any case, it should be remembered that Djokovic is arguably the greatest returner the game has ever seen.
It may well come down to Alcaraz being the last man trying to stop Djokovic but while the hugely-talented Spaniard did break his grasscourt duck at Queen’s Club a couple of weeks ago, potential backers have to have at least some concern over the physical issues that crop up too often for the player or punters’ liking.
Alcaraz started the year injured and hasn’t got through many tournaments without being troubled by some problem or another – defeats in Rio and Miami could be attributed to injury and then there’s what happened at the recent French Open.
Cramping basically ended the current world number one’s title bid at Roland Garros, although he later admitted the issue had been brought on by nerves – the pair’s semi-final had been highly-anticipated but ended as a damp squib with the firm pre-match favourite well beaten.
Maybe he’ll be better for that miserable experience but it’s hardly something that will fill bettors with confidence.
And regardless of how Alcaraz comes into any final with Djokovic physically or mentally, is he ready to beat the Serb on this surface? I doubt it.
For me, Djokovic looks a very solid favourite.
Rarely would I back a player around 8/13 (one firm is prepared to go 7/10) but when I’m confident he’s going to win, I am happy to do so.
Prior to Friday’s draw, I had thought there might be a spot of value in both Hurkacz and Andrey Rublev.
However, both have landed in the same quarter as Djokovic and I can’t touch them now, even at bigger prices.
In fact, a value search in the outright market looks one big struggle – I really wouldn’t be surprised to see Alcaraz and Djokovic, the top two in the market, face off in the final on July 16.
That said, there’s a player in the top half – that of Alcaraz – who now appears to have gone too big at 80/1 and that’s ALEX DE MINAUR.
He’s one of few who looks to have plenty of natural ability on this surface - his volleys were excellent during his recent run to the Queen’s Club final.
It was interesting to hear him speak about knowing from a young age that grass would be his favourite surface and he certainly looked at home on it there.
The Aussie played well here last year too before inexplicably blowing a two-set lead against Cristian Garin in the last 16.
He runs down so much so it will be hard to hit him off court.
De Minaur could meet Alcaraz in the fourth round and while the Spaniard won that Queen’s final last weekend, it was a close match, one the Australian started the better but was unable to take the chances he created when on top in the first set. Had he done so, maybe the outcome would have been different.
He also tested Alcaraz on clay in Barcelona last year – leading by a set and only losing 6-4 in the third – so it’s clear that he’s capable of causing the top seed problems.
Perhaps it’s fanciful but I’m still not totally convinced by Alcaraz on grass and so taking him on with a small-stakes punt on De Minaur looks worth a try.
For my last bet, I’m going to head to the weak-looking third quarter, one in which the highest seed is Casper Ruud and the next-best Jannik Sinner.
Grass just doesn’t look right for Ruud, the French Open runner-up who hasn’t played a warm-up event on the surface.
And Sinner was last seen withdrawing from Halle with an adductor injury – never a great one for a tennis player given the amount of stretching required both along the baseline and in service motion.
This definitely looks a section where some of the big names can be taken on with the likes of Taylor Fritz (a quarter-finalist last year) and Denis Shapovalov (semi-finalist in 2021) having struggled for form of late and also looking vulnerable.
Perhaps ROBERTO BAUTISTA AGUT can take advantage.
He made the semi-finals here back in 2019 and the other week in Halle he played some good stuff en route to the last four, taking out Medvedev along the way.
The Spaniard served well, losing his delivery only twice in his first three matches, and might be able to have a say here.
His grasscourt record is better than virtually everyone in this field and while that’s partly due to his age, that experience is worth noting.
The 35-year-old is a former champion in Den Bosch, made the Mallorca final last year, the Halle semis in 2018 and also has three other last-16 appearances at Wimbledon on his CV.
I’ve felt for several weeks now that the courts may be higher bouncing this year following a long, hot spell leading up to the event.
That’s changed in recent days but that may not be enough to soften things up significantly.
Interestingly, it was also hot and dry in the lead up to the 2019 tournament in which Bautista Agut performed so well – he’ll like it if the ball kicks up and the courts play more like a hardcourt.
Given the doubts surrounding many in this section, I’m prepared to have a speculative bet on the Spaniard to winning the quarter at 16/1.
Posted at 2230 BST on 01/07/23
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