Our tennis man Andy Schooler delivers his betting verdict on the 2022 Wimbledon men’s singles.
Tennis betting tips: Wimbledon men's singles
1pt e.w. Marin Cilic at 33/1 (bet365, BoyleSports)
0.5pt Taylor Fritz to win the fourth quarter at 14/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Alexander Bublik to win the second quarter at 50/1 (Betfred)
*Marin Cilic has withdrawn after a positive Covid-19 test - stakes refunded
You remember Lleyton Hewitt, right?
Well, this year marks the 20th anniversary of the Australian winning the Wimbledon title.
If that’s rather mind-blowing in that ‘how did I get so old?’ sort of way, then consider this.
Since then, only four players have won the men’s singles in SW19. No prizes for guessing that’s the so-called ‘Big Four’ of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray.
That quartet has even pocketed half of the runners-up shields in that period.
What does it take to be a Wimbledon contender?
Hewitt’s victory essentially kicked off the whole ‘the grass is slower these days’ chatter which continues to this day.
And while it’s certainly true that the courts of the All England Club play differently to the ones Pete Sampras dominated on in the 1990s, they remain a specific challenge, one difficult to conquer, with many players having little chance of doing so.
It still takes certain characteristics for players to do well at Wimbledon.
These days volleying skills aren’t as important as they were but they remain a big plus; movement and good footwork is key on a surface which is like no other in terms of grip; and a strong serve remains a massive weapon on the grass, no matter how much slower or higher-bouncing the grass of 2022 is considered to be.
You only need to look at the handful of players who have recently managed to muscle their way into the final for a crack at the Big Four.
In the last six years, Milos Raonic, Marin Cilic, Kevin Anderson and Matteo Berrettini have all managed that. Each man has a huge serve and has made it very difficult for their opponent to break.
Holding serve regularly is a way of creating pressure that some players (and not just the mentally frail) crack under.
This should all be considered when looking for a potential champion, or at least one of the finalists.
The most likely outcome – and by some distance, according to the bookies – is that Novak Djokovic will win the tournament for the sixth time in eight editions.
The defending champion has won the last three stagings and is odds-on to make it four in a row.
He was a similar price last season when I was more than happy to back him but this time around I’m not so convinced.
Twelve months ago, the Serb arrived on the back of French Open glory and seeking to win the third leg of the calendar-year Grand Slam.
This season, he’s Slam-less so far – and this may be his last chance.
As was the case (eventually) in Australia, it seems unlikely Djokovic will be allowed to compete at the US Open due to his unvaccinated Covid status.
That adds pressure to the next fortnight, especially with Djokovic now two behind Rafael Nadal in the all-time list of Slams won.
His Australian deportation was shambolic start to the year and, unsurprisingly it took him a while to get going.
During the recent claycourt season in Europe, he was finally able to play week in, week out and managed to hit himself into form.
He ended his title drought in Rome but failed to deliver as French Open favourite, losing to Nadal in the quarter-finals.
Djokovic opted not to play a grasscourt warm-up tournament, although he did thrash Felix Auger-Aliassime in an exhibition match in the week to show he’s raring to go in SW19.
The draw has been fairly kind – he’s in the same half as third seed Casper Ruud and fifth seed Carlos Alcaraz, both of whom have very limited experience on grass.
Maybe Alcaraz will one day be able to master the surface, as his compatriot Nadal did, but I simply can’t back a player who has only played two grasscourt matches at tour level at a best price of 15/1.
Instead, Hubert Hurkacz looks the biggest threat to Djokovic in the top half.
The Pole served superbly en route to the title in Halle recently and following that effort, I did fancy his chances pre-draw.
But now Hurkacz, a semi-finalist here in 2021, is in the same section as the hot favourite and has also been handed one of the trickiest first-round draws against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. It’s by no means certain he’ll win that.
I therefore can’t back him at 16/1.
For all my picking holes in his rivals, I still can’t back Djokovic at odds-on – he’s certainly the most likely winner but I’ve long said I can only back such prices when I’m very confident about them winning and on this occasion I’m simply not, largely because of that considerably different year he’s had so far.
Where is the value in the men's singles draw?
I prefer to look for a spot of value, firstly in the bottom half of the draw and then in the quarter markets.
The bottom half headed up by second seed – and two-time champion – Rafael Nadal.
This is a player halfway to the fabled Grand Slam yet he’s as big as 8/1 (a Sky Bet Price Boost) to win leg three. Why?
Well, Nadal hasn’t won here since 2010 and it’s the surface he struggles with the most – it was long said the lower bounce proved problematic for his ailing knees.
However, it is another chronic injury – in his foot – that is the main reason for this price these days.
Nadal said the “only way to get through” the French Open was to have anaesthetic injections to numb his foot but added at the end of that tournament he wouldn’t do so again.
He has instead opted for treatment on the nerves which are bothering him but it would certainly be no surprise to see his foot causing problems, as it did during the tournaments leading into the French Open.
While he made a mockery of similar odds at his favourite Roland Garros, he can’t rely on his instincts so much here and I simply can’t back him at this price here given what we know.
Matteo Berrettini is actually the main the bookies consider the most likely finalist from this side of the draw.
Having undergone surgery on his racquet hand in April, the Italian has proved his fitness in remarkable fashion in recent weeks, winning his comeback tournament in Stuttgart and backing it up with victory at Queen’s Club.
Last year’s runner-up has that booming serve I’ve mentioned – he’s held 90% of the time on grass during his career – and it’s made him very tough to beat in recent years on this surface.
Still, following his winning run he’s only 6/1 – you were getting at least twice that prior to Stuttgart – and that’s just a bit too short for me.
Some will turn to Stefanos Tsitsipas or Felix Auger-Aliassime at bigger prices.
However, while Tsitsipas has finally put a grasscourt run together to reach the final in Mallorca this week, it will take more than that to convince me he’s ready to challenge for the Wimbledon title.
Remember, the Greek is 3-4 in SW19 with three of the losses coming in the first round.
As for FAA, he made the quarter-finals here last year and won several matches at the recent events in Den Bosch and Halle but usually seems to find someone better in the draw I’m not sure he has the self-belief right now.
Nick Kyrgios was always going to be an interesting floater in the draw and he’s landed in this half – in the same quarter as Tsitsipas and Berrettini.
He’s a player who very much fits that massive serve, tough-to-break bill but he simply doesn’t return well enough and when that’s the case you tend to rely on tie-breaks rather too much. The margin for error is small.
Having made back-to-back semi-finals in Stuttgart and Halle, I wouldn’t completely rule out the brash Aussie but neither can I recommend him at 33/1.
He’s got a tough draw with Queen’s runner-up Filip Krajinovic a likely second-round foe, followed by Tsitsipas, last year’s semi-finalist Denis Shapovalov and then Berrettini. And that’s all before the semi-finals.
As well as a pretty poor Wimbledon record – he’s yet to even match his debut quarter-final run of 2014 – injury has to be a concern.
He quit Mallorca citing an abdominal issue. Given it came after he’d played just one match, I don’t believe that was just precautionary.
In short, there are too many doubts to back Kyrgios at that price.
Instead, I’m turning to MARIN CILIC.
*Marin Cilic has withdrawn after a positive Covid-19 test - stakes refunded
The 2017 finalist, who has also played in three other quarter-finals here, is coming in off an unexpected semi-final run at the French Open.
This is very much his preferred surface though – he won in Stuttgart last season and is also a former Queen’s champion. Only six of his 127 rivals have won more grasscourt titles than the Croat, who will take much from his efforts on clay.
The big serve and forehand is complemented by good volleying skills; basically Cilic has the game to go deep again here.
Most recently he made the semis at Queen’s before a disappointing defeat to Krajinovic, but one loss can be forgiven.
He looks ready to pounce if Nadal isn’t 100% fit, while the other high seed in his quarter, Auger-Aliassime, is by no means certain to get past his first-round opponent, Eastbourne finalist Maxime Cressy.
It’s not hard to envisage 33/1 quotes about Cilic tumbling in the opening week and while he’s hardly bet of the year, he's worth an each-way punt.
Quarter masters
The other bets I like come in the quarter betting and I’ll start by sticking in Cilic’s fourth quarter where I can’t resist a saver on TAYLOR FRITZ.
The American finally looks to have settled on grass this week in Eastbourne where at time of writing he was due to contest the final.
Fritz was the champion in Indian Wells earlier this season, a tournament which also helps the big servers, and it was notable that he didn’t lose serve in any of his three matches prior to the final in Sussex.
His improvement began last summer and it really exploded with his Indian Wells triumph where he beat Andrey Rublev and Nadal back to back.
The clay campaign was unsurprisingly poor – and also disrupted by injury – but he’s looked back to something like his best in Eastbourne and so I’m surprised to see him up at 14/1 to win this quarter.
The second quarter is where my other selection resides.
This is the section of Hurkacz, who faces that tricky opener, and Ruud so I can’t ignore the 50/1 on offer about ALEXANDER BUBLIK.
The Kazakh will serve aces aplenty here and while he’ll need to keep his emotions in check, the combustible star can take advantage of landing in this section.
Over the past two seasons on grass, Bublik has held serve a healthy 87% of the time and broken at 20% which is decent for a non-seed.
OK, he’s got a tricky opener against Marton Fucsovics but after that the three seeds he’d in theory need to beat to get to the quarter-finals are Pablo Carreno Busta, Frances Tiafoe and Ruud. Hardly frightening.
50s simply looks too big and makes the coupon for what, I’m afraid, doesn’t look the greatest Wimbledon tournament from a betting perspective.
One suspects better bets will be available as the tournament progresses, so please check out my daily previews, the first of which will be online on Sunday.
Posted at 0900 on 25/06/22
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