With 7/1 and 12/1 winners from his five Wimbledon selections, Tim Clement provides his predictions for Johanna Konta v Venus Williams in Friday's semi-final.
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Wimbledon best bets:
Johanna Konta v Venus Williams to go three sets at 5/4
Venus Williams to win the first set 7-6 at 10/1
Well after joy at 7/1 and 12/1 on days six and eight, we were brought crashing down with a bump on day nine, with Wednesday’s acca dead within 33 minutes of Marin Cilic’s slow start.
It would be greedy to expect glory on every day and we’ll take the every-other-day triumphs, so where to look for the women’s semi-finals?
Johanna Konta and Venus Williams are second on Centre Court and I have feeling that they are going to treat us to an epic.
Sometimes players just match up perfectly and that looks the case between these two, with their attacking talents making for a mouth-watering match up.
Konta has really endeared herself with resilient performances against Caroline Garcia and Simona Halep, dealing with the pressure admirably.
That mental focus will be crucial against such an intimidating opponent, while she can also draw on winning three of their five meetings.
However, I am concerned that the added pressure of being Britain’s only remaining singles hope takes things to a new level.
She was involved in two tie-breaks against Halep and all the stats from the fortnight suggest another one is likely when the tournament’s two ace leaders meet.
They are also the weakest returners of the final four, with Konta winning just 24 per of her return games, while Williams’ figure is just four per cent better.
They have both been registering leading figures for winning points on their first serves at 75 per cent and 80 per cent respectively.
That should put them on collision course for a first set tie-break, which leads me to my betting conclusion.
We get good value on either player winning the first set 7-6, 10/1 apiece, based on their record of there not being a tie-break in any of their five meetings, but the fact that they’ve gone the distance in three indicates just how well they are matched.
So the remaining question is which one to back?
Konta arrived at Wimbledon with a 6-2 winning record in tie-breaks in 2017 and has enhanced that to 9-3 at SW19, but Williams’ is even better, racking up 8-2 before and winning both of her tie-breaks this fortnight.
So there we have it, 10-2 trumps 9-3, while 37 years of experience and the absence of the pressure of history and an expectant nation enhances Williams’ appeal further.
I’ll also be on the match going three sets at odds-against, with both selections available at top price with a range of bookmakers.