Tennis tips: Next Gen ATP Finals betting preview and best bets

Tennis betting tips: Next Gen ATP Finals

3pts win Jack Draper at 11/4 (General)

0.5pt e.w. Dominic Stricker at 12/1 (General, 1/3, 1-2)

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Intesa Sanpaolo Next Gen ATP Finals

• Milan, Italy (indoor hard)

The winner of last year’s Next Gen ATP Finals is the current world number one which goes to show this is a strong platform for the rising stars of the sport.

That said, its importance in the grand scheme of things remains fairly low, as highlighted – once again – but the withdrawal of the leading players who were eligible to compete.

Still well within the ’21 and under’ entry requirement, Carlos Alcaraz could have returned to defend his crown but he, like Jannik Sinner and weekend Paris Masters winner Holger Rune, have bigger fish to fry these days.

Instead, home hope Lorenzo Musetti leads the field, one which features three top-50 players, including Briton Jack Draper.

Since its inception in 2017, the tournament has pushed innovation and it will once again use the Fast4 format which sees matches played over the best of five sets, although each set is a maximum of seven games long with a tie-break played at 3-3.

Only two matches last year didn’t feature a breaker, while five of 15 saw at least two. Given this, it is worth punters noting players with strong tie-break records.

A shot clock has long been used in Milan but this year there will be further pressure on players with the time between points shortened to 15 seconds if the serve hits and ace, double fault or the return is missed.

I doubt this will go down well with the umpires.

The continual push to make matches shorter – yes, we must think of those poor attention-lacking youngsters – also sees just one sit-down per set this year, while players will be able to use in-match data via a tablet when they do get a break.

As with the regular ATP Finals – which take place in Turin next week - the eight players are split into top groups of four with the top two in each progressing to Friday’s semi-finals at the Allianz Cloud.

This venue first hosted in 2019 – the first two editions were played across the city – and the court speed has gradually increased over the years.

Let’s look at those groups and the players involved…

GREEN GROUP

Brandon Nakashima

• Odds: Title – 3/1; Group – 4/7
• Race position: 6
• Ranking: 49
• 2022 win-loss record (tour level): 30-23
• 2022 best performances: W San Diego, QF Florence, Los Cabos, Atlanta, Den Bosch, Sydney
• Recent form: L64 Paris, L16 Basel, QF Florence, L16 Tokyo, W San Diego
• Record v group opponents: No previous meetings

Nakashima won his first ATP Tour title in September, adding a cherry to his strong year. His best performances have come on outdoor hardcourts but he did make the last eight in Florence recently. Has the experience of having played this event last season (making the semis) too. Significantly, Nakashima has an excellent tie-break record having won 25 of the 36 he’s played this year. The fact that tie-breaks come at 3-3 this week should therefore work in his favour. His strong serve helps him in such scenarios – Nakashima has held serve 85% of the time at tour level this season. That’s a higher figure than anyone else in this field. Still, he has gone just 5-18 against top-50 players which is a worry if, as expected, he progresses to the latter stages.

Jiri Lehecka

• Odds: Title – 8/1; Group – 12/5
• Race position: 7
• Ranking: 74
• 2022 win-loss record (tour level): 10-17
• 2022 best performances: W Liberec (CH), RU Mauthausen (CH), SF Rotterdam, QF Kitzbuhel
• Recent form: Q2 Paris, Q1 Vienna, L16 Stockholm, L16 Mouilleron-le-Captif (CH), L32 Sofia, L32 Metz
• Record v group opponents: No previous meetings

Lehecka has shown potential in 2022 but not often enough for his liking. Impressed indoors in Rotterdam towards the start of the season, reaching the semis, but has struggled to back that up. Has claimed two top-50 wins (over Grigor Dimitrov and Denis Shapovalov) but he arrives here on a run of just three wins in nine. Has the edge over the Italian pair in this group in terms of experience and will likely target those matches in a bid to reach the last four.

Francesco Passaro

• Odds: Title – 40/1; Group – 9/1
• Race position: 9
• Ranking: 119
• 2022 win-loss record (tour level): 1-3
• 2022 best performances: W Trieste (CH), RU Como, Forli & San Remo (CH), L16 Florence
• Recent form: L32 Naples, L16 Florence, L32 Parma (CH), L16 Lisbon (CH), L16 Genoa (CH)
• Record v group opponents: v Arnaldi – overall: 0-1; indoor hard: 0-0; 2022: 0-1

As you might expect from an Italian, Passaro has played most of his tennis on clay this season and the fact he’s managed just seven matches on a hardcourt since March isn’t great for his chances this week. His experience at tour level is also very limited – he played four such matches this season, winning just one. Significantly, his return-games won percentage dipped to just 14 (from 33 against all opponents) in those contests.

Matteo Arnaldi

• Odds: Title – 50/1; Group – 10/1
• Race position: 11
• Ranking: 134
• 2022 win-loss record (tour level): 0-1
• 2022 best performances: W Francavilla al Mare (CH), RU St Tropez (CH) & San Marino (CH), L64 Rome
• Recent form: QF Bergamo (CH), L16 Brest (CH), L32 Vilnius (CH), RU St Tropez (CH), SF Alicante (CH), L16 Genoa (CH)
• Record v group opponents: v Passaro – overall: 1-0; indoor hard: 0-0; 2022: 1-0

Looks to have the better chance of the two Italians in the group, not simply because he leads his compatriot 1-0 on the head-to-head (the only previous meeting of the entire group stage). Arnaldi has gone 10-5 during his recent spell on the hardcourts, a run which includes a win over the main ATP Tour’s Ugo Humbert. Still, you have to wonder how he will fare against the likes of Nakashima and Lehecka given his lack of tour-level experience – his only previous such match saw him win just five games and fail to break the serve of Marin Cilic in Rome.

RED GROUP

Lorenzo Musetti

• Odds: Title – 9/4; Group – 19/20
• Race position: 4
• Ranking: 23
• 2022 win-loss record (tour level): 33-25
• 2022 best performances: W Hamburg & Naples, SF Florence & Sofia
• Recent form: QF Paris, L32 Basel, W Naples, SF Florence, SF Sofia, L16 Metz
• Record v group opponents: No previous meetings

Has the best form of anyone in this field and is also the highest ranked. Musetti has won 11 of his last 15 matches, winning the title in Naples during that spell. Casper Ruud and Matteo Berrettini were among his victims, while current world number one Carlos Alcaraz was also beaten back in July. Finished more than 700 ranking points clear of his nearest rival in this field (Draper) in the ‘Race to Milan’ and has won a tournament-leading 33 tour-level matches this year. Has a great chance on home soil, although didn’t perform well in Milan 12 months ago, exiting in the group stage.

Jack Draper

• Odds: Title – 11/4; Group – 13/8
• Race position: 5
• Ranking: 41
• 2022 win-loss record (tour level): 17-12
• 2022 best performances: SF Eastbourne, QF Montreal & Winston-Salem, W Saint-Brieuc (CH), Forli 5 (CH), Forli 4 (CH) & Forli 2 (CH)
• Recent form: L32 Paris, L32 Basel, L16 Antwerp
• Record v group opponents:No previous meetings

Also holds strong title claims. After winning four hardcourt Challengers early in the year, the Briton has enjoyed a terrific breakthrough on the main tour and arrives here with a 17-12 win-loss record on it. Stefanos Tsitsipas, Taylor Fritz and Felix Auger-Aliassime have all been beaten, while he has won more matches (10) against the top 50 than he’s lost (9). Has won 24% of return games at that level – the best in this field alongside Musetti. However, he is five percentage points up on the Italian in terms of holding serve (84 v 79) so it is interesting to see him priced considerably bigger. Hasn’t won much since his US Open injury but it’s worth considering the strength of his recent opponents – Draper has actually taken sets off top-10 stars Carlos Alcaraz and Hubert Hurkacz in recent weeks.

Chun-Hsin Tseng

• Odds: Title – 28/1; Group – 12/1
• Race position: 8
• Ranking: 90
• 2022 win-loss record (tour level): 3-8
• 2022 best performances: W Murcia (CH) & Bengaluru (CH), RU Roseto Degli Abruzzi (CH), L16 Seoul & Los Cabos
• Recent form: L32 Busan (CH), L32 Seoul (CH), L32 Tokyo, L16 Seoul, L16 Szczecin (CH)
• Record v group opponents: No previous meetings

It’s hard to make much of a case for the former world junior number one. Most of his wins this year have come on clay, while he’s gone 5-10 post-Wimbledon, wining just two of his last 10 matches. At tour level, he’s only 3-8 for the season, with no top-50 wins – not good with two such opponents in this group. Across those 11 contests, Tseng has won just 69% of his service games and 17% on return. Those numbers aren’t going to cut it.

Dominic Stricker

• Odds: Title – 12/1; Group – 13/2
• Race position: 10
• Ranking: 111
• 2022 win-loss record (tour level): 4-4
• 2022 best performances: W Zug (CH) & Cleveland (CH), RU Columbus (CH), L16 Basel, Antwerp, Gstaad, Stuttgart
• Recent form: QF Bergamo (CH), L16 Basel, L16 Antwerp, L32 Charleston (CH), QF Columbus (CH)
• Record v group opponents: No previous meetings

The rising Swiss star could be the joker in the pack in this group. The fact he only finished 10th in the ‘Race to Milan’ shows he’s not been able to win consistently, yet he has proved he can compete with higher-ranked players. Stricker holds a winning career record (9-7) at tour level and he’s claimed three top-50 wins this season, including victories over Botic van de Zandschulp and Maxime Cressy this autumn. Has won 85% of service points at tour level this season but his return figure of 12% shows where he needs to improve. Still, he should prove tough to break this week, should be competitive and looks a possible dark horse.

VERDICT

Top seed Lorenzo Musetti and JACK DRAPER look the class of this field, both having shown this season their ability to beat higher-ranked players.

Musetti’s recent results have been the more eyecatching but while Draper has not won a great deal on the indoor circuit, he’s played well against some truly elite opponents and I’m not sure that’s been taken into account by some layers.

Musetti is as short as 6/4 with some firms but, while I respect his chances, it looks a bit short with Draper the value for me at 11/4.

The worry is he’s in the considerably harder Red Group where DOMINIC STRICKER could prove to be a fly in the ointment for the two tournament favourites, especially if conditions are quick.

The Swiss has each-way potential at 12/1, while he’s 13/2 to win the group – he may only need two wins to land that.

A player who has shown he rises to the big occasion, Stricker looks worth a small side bet.

In the other group, I expect Brandon Nakashima to dominate. He’s the class of this section, as his stats show, and that impressive tie-break record is a notable string on his bow.

I was going to back him at 8/11 to win it but the price has been moved into 4/7 and I’m not into putting those odds up here.

Published at 1220 GMT on 07/11/22

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