Our tennis man Andy Schooler landed his headline 7/4 tip on day three of the French Open. He now previews Wednesday’s action at Roland Garros.
Tennis betting tips: French Open matches
1.5pts Pedro Martinez to win a set v Andrey Rublev at 4/5 (Coral. Ladbrokes)
1pt Fabian Marozsan to beat Grigor Dimitrov at 5/2 (General)
1pt over 12.5 games in first set of Hubert Hurkacz v Brandon Nakashima at 23/10 (General)
Andrey Rublev v Pedro Martinez
Here’s a stat for you – Rublev has now played 16 matches at the French Open and he’s won only one of them in straight sets.
Taro Daniel was the latest big underdog to take a set off the Russian in round one and if he can do it, then the in-form Martinez can too.
After a barren spell, the Spaniard has enjoyed a decent claycourt season, winning the title in Girona, making the final at another Challenger and beating Casper Ruud en route to the final of the Estoril Open on the main tour.
With more rain forecast, this match looks likely to be played with the Court Suzanne Lenglen roof on.
Casper Ruud spoke of the humidity and slowness when it was across during his match on Tuesday so I’m not sure Rublev will enjoy the success he is used to with his big forehand.
Martinez can hang tough in this one and that’s the sort of tennis which will irk the mentally fragile Russian.
Back the underdog to win a set – just as he did when these two met at the 2021 US Open.
Fabian Marozsan v Grigor Dimitrov
Plenty of rain got onto the courts on Tuesday and heavy conditions won’t suit Dimitrov, but Marozsan’s power, especially on the forehand side, should cause plenty of problems.
He’s capable of hitting through the court and if he keeps the error count low, I feel this could be a tough day for the hit-and-miss Dimitrov, who has gone just 5-3 on the clay so far.
The Hungarian is also capable of using the drop shot well so should be able to get Dimitrov out of his rhythm.
This is one of those matches where the price gap looks too wide and I’m happy to take a chance on the underdog at 5/2.
Hubert Hurkacz v Brandon Nakashima
This bet goes a little against what I’ve said about the conditions, but I’m going to take a chance on it any way.
Both these men hold serve with regularity and a move onto the clay hasn’t changed that.
Hurkacz has held in 85% of his games since the switch to this surface last month, while Nakashima is up at 91% in his tour-level matches, admittedly a fairly small sample.
Neither is a great returner with Nakashima at only 15%. Hurkacz is a healthier 22% of return games won but that’s far form spectacular on clay and puts him only 30th on the tour list.
Given those stats, I’m thinking tie-breaks here – there has been a breaker in five of Nakashima’s last six and eight of Hurkacz’s 14 on clay.
With this being their first meeting, neither man will have had a good look at the other’s serve and that has to work in our favour.
As a result, a first-set tie-break looks the one to be on – this is a 23/10 shot.
Posted at 2035 BST on 28/05/24
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