Andy Schooler previews Saturday’s US Open women’s singles final between defending champion Aryna Sabalenka and Amanda Anisimova.
Tennis betting tips: Daily best bets
1pt Amanda Anisimova to beat Aryna Sabalenka at 15/8 (General)
1.5pts Sabalenka to serve the most aces v Anisimova at 11/10 (bet365)
Aryna Sabalenka v Amanda Anisimova (2100 BST)
When Anisimova beat Sabalenka in the Wimbledon semi-finals only two months ago, she played some terrific tennis and looked to have a decent chance of claiming her maiden Grand Slam title.
Yes, she would have to face former world number one Iga Swiatek but having just beaten the current WTA leader, even within her own camp, hopes must have been high.
What unfolded 48 hours later was a horror show as Anisimova became the first player in 114 years to lose a Wimbledon final 6-0 6-0.
And therein lies the problem for punters heading into this match – how will Anisimova be mentally?
Physically and technically her game looks in fine working order. She arrives here having claimed revenge on Swiatek and also beating a resurgent Naomi Osaka in the semi-finals. She is hitting with great power and depth and based on what we’ve seen, looks like she’ll be able to live with Sabalenka, another player who crushes the ball, in the baseline exchanges. The backhand is a massive weapon, one which is firing well.
However, clearly there’s the potential for mental baggage from that Wimbledon final, while does the core reason for that dismal display – nerves about what would be a career-defining win – remain? This is, after all, her home Grand Slam and victory here would be life-changing. She did admit that “there were a lot of nerves at the beginning” of Thursday’s semi-final.
Being able to deliver your best level in a Grand Slam final is no doubt difficult but it’s a skill required if you are you win the game’s top prizes, at least it usually is.
Sabalenka seems unlikely to hand victory to Anisimova.
She’s been here and done all it before. This is her sixth successive hardcourt Grand Slam final and third at the US Open. She’s won three of those finals.
That experience, plus the way she’s upped her game since arriving in New York, make her a worthy favourite, but she’s far from bombproof.
The fact is the Belarusian has cracked in the big matches this season, losing the finals of the Australian and French Opens, as well as that semi-final against Anisimova in SW19.
On each occasion, when the pressure has been applied, she’s choked up errors which were a common theme in the days before she became a Grand Slam champion. She’s subsequently cut a frustrated figure and hasn’t had the necessary composure to turn things around.
As long as Anisimova isn’t bringing a Wimbledon repeat to Arhtur Ashe Stadium, I’d expect the American to be able to apply pressure.
One area where she’s really excelled is on second-serve returns. She’s taken an attacking approach, getting up close to the baseline, and really ripping into anything short or soft.
We saw that in the semi-finals when Osaka won just 33% of points behind her second serve. Going back to their Wimbledon meeting, Sabalenka won only 44% of second-serve points; Anisimova’s figure was at an impressive 60%.
Yes, the different surface probably works in Sabalenka’s favour but I suspect both would say they’d rather play here than on the grass.
Essentially, I think you have to tread carefully with this one but of the two outcomes, I’d much rather back Anisimova at the prices.
If her mental approach allows her to play how she’s been doing in recent matches, she should at least keep this competitive.
And a look at the head-to-head suggests she has much more than a puncher’s chance.
Her Wimbledon win took her into a 6-3 lead, although it is only 2-1 on the hardcourts.
Odds of 15/8 may be worth a small play.
In the sub-markets, I’m going back to a bet which delivered a winner for this column in the duo’s Wimbledon match and that’s Sabalenka to serve the most aces.
OK, at this tournament, Anisimova has the higher average – 5.8 per match to Sabalenka’s 4.8.
However, I’m more concerned about the head-to-head. This is about how the individual players respond to the other’s delivery. Can they read it well? Even if they can’t, can they still get a racquet on the ball?
And when you look at the H2H numbers, Sabalenka holds a considerable advantage, having won this market in the last seven meetings.
At Wimbledon, she won the count 6-2, while at Roland Garros earlier this season it was 11-3.
I’m struggling to see why Anisimova, who conceded 15 aces against Osaka, is the favourite here and will back Sabalenka accordingly at 11/10.
Posted at 1705 BST on 04/09/25
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