Our tennis man Andy Schooler was back in profit at the French Open on Friday – here are his picks for day seven.
Tennis betting tips: French Open matches
1.5pts over 34.5 games in Novak Djokovic v Lorenzo Musetti at 5/6 (General)
1pt Francisco Cerundolo to beat Tommy Paul at 11/10 (General)
Novak Djokovic v Lorenzo Musetti
A lot has been said about Djokovic’s form of late – and I think we’re about to find out a lot more about is title chances here.
There’s been an argument made, certainly by TV commentators, that Djokovic is saving himself for the big events these days but I’m not sure it’s that easy to flick the switch.
He’s lost to Casper Ruud, Alejandro Tabilo and Tomas Machac during the current clay season and I feel it would be folly to simply disregard those because they were below Grand Slam level.
Yes, he’s yet to drop a set at this tournament but he’s played little and frankly Roberto Carballes Baena did a poor job at the end of their first set having caused the top seed a few problems.
Musetti is certainly better equipped to trouble Djokovic.
He was very good against Gael Monfils the other night, winning in straight sets. It’s of some significance that the match was played under the lights of Court Philippe Chatrier, as this one will be (admittedly Djokovic also played in these conditions in round one).
Musetti famously led Djokovic by two sets to love here three years ago before running out of gas and barely winning another game.
He was just a teenager at the time though and, since then, Musetti has conquered the Serb on clay, winning in Monte Carlo in 2023. While Djokovic gained revenge at the same venue earlier this year, the Italian has proved he has what it takes to live with the world number one.
I’m not convinced Musetti wins this, although I wouldn’t rule it out, but I definitely feel that given what we’ve seen from Djokovic in 2024, the gap between the two in price terms is too big (Djokovic is just 1/5 for the victory).
How to take advantage? Well, my view is to go over the 34.5 line in the total games market.
The Italian is capable of staying in plenty of rallies with the Serb, who hasn’t always looked the best in the long exchanges this season, and I can envisage Djokovic’s level not being there for three straight sets.
Francisco Cerundolo v Tommy Paul
Paul’s claycourt form is decent – he made the semi-finals in Rome – but I was still a little surprised to see him priced up as favourite for this one.
Cerundolo is a natural claycourter and he actually leads the head-to-head 3-2, despite only one of those matches taking place on clay – he won that in Madrid a few weeks ago in three sets.
In fact, all five contests have gone to a deciding set but it’s also notable that all have been played in faster conditions than this – even that Madrid showdown had altitude involved to speed things up.
This match is scheduled out on Court 14 where the clay has picked up plenty of moisture in recent days.
The forecast for Saturday looks dry but it’s not getting above 16C and so it’s going to play pretty slow again and that has to favour the Argentine.
He’ll be crunching the groundstrokes away from the baseline, especially on his favoured forehand, and I can see him grinding Paul down in the end.
At odds-against, Cerundolo looks worthy of support.
Posted at 2140 BST on 31/05/24
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