Tennis betting tips: Preview and best bets for the ATP tournaments in Seoul, Tel Aviv and Sofia.
Our Andy Schooler reveals his best bets for this week’s ATP tournaments in Seoul, Tel Aviv and Sofia.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
1pt e.w. Ilya Ivashka in the Sofia Open at 22/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt e.w. Marc-Andrea Huesler in the Sofia Open at 40/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt e.w. Adrian Mannarino in the Tel Aviv Watergen Open at 28/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt win Borna Coric in the Eugene Korea Open at 7/1 (BetVictor) - Withdrawn due to ankle injury
Tel Aviv Watergen Open
- Tel Aviv, Israel (indoor hard)
Israel, the world’s most vaccinated country when it comes to COVID-19, welcomes one of the world’s most famous unvaccinated athletes this week.
Well, it is due to.
Before leaving the Laver Cup in London on Sunday, Novak Djokovic spoke openly about pain in his wrist – a contributing factor to his surprise defeat to Felix Auger-Aliassime.
“I have been struggling with my right wrist for the last four to five days, to be honest. I have been keeping it under control.
“Today was not easy. I couldn't serve as fast or as accurately as I would like to.”
He added the slow balls did not help the problem.
Perhaps more favourable conditions in Tel Aviv will aid his cause – reports from qualifying suggest it’s playing faster than in London – but why anyone would want to back the Serb at 4/9 following those comments is beyond me.
There has to be a chance Djokovic doesn’t even step onto court – his first match will likely be scheduled for Thursday – but even if he does, will we be getting the real deal?
Either way, he looks worth taking on, albeit there are few alternatives leaping off the page.
Marin Cilic is the second seed – and second favourite.
We’ve backed him a few times this season without success.
One of those was the recent US Open where he again played well but from a break up in the final set Cilic lost to eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz.
He’s 11/1 here although it’s only a third of the odds for a place in the final given the presence of an odds-on jolly.
Cilic could go well here – nine of his 20 career titles have come on indoor hardcourts – but the risks look to outweigh the potential rewards on this occasion.
There are plenty of other options in the bottom half with realistic chances, including Cilic’s potential quarter-final opponent, Botic van de Zandschulp and Maxime Cressy, albeit the latter’s fitness still needs to be proven as he’s not been seen since quitting the US Open.
The layers fancy Sebastian Korda, although his inconsistency was again on show last week in Metz where he disappointed against Lorenzo Sonego, even if the Italian did do on the win the title.
Instead, I’ll take a punt on ADRIAN MANNARINO, a player who usually enjoys this time of year when the tour heads indoors.
The Frenchman has made an autumn indoor final in three of the last four seasons (twice in Moscow, one in Nur-Sultan).
He’s been in decent nick of late too, winning his second ATP title in Winston-Salem only last month.
Admittedly he flopped in his opener in Metz last week but I’m prepared to put one bad result aside.
If we are talking fairly slick indoor conditions then Mannarino’s sliding lefty serve will be a real weapon and he will be prepared to attack.
Let’s take a chance on the veteran to small stakes at 28/1.
There’s one player involved in qualifying too that might be of interest.
I’ll take a look on Monday, see how conditions are and whether he gets through his final qualifier. If all goes well, I’ll post a few further thoughts on Monday evening.
Sofia Open
- Sofia, Bulgaria (indoor hard)
It’s usually a pretty sluggish Proflex surface in use in Sofia, a venue the ATP has been visiting since 2016.
However, with the Bulgarian capital at around 550m above sea level, the strong servers have often gone well here, getting that added bonus of the thinner air.
Mirza Basic was a surprise winner here in 2018, since when Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner (twice) have been champions. In addition, Vasek Pospisil made the final in 2020.
It’s a trend certainly worth punters considering.
For those taking into account ‘course form’, it’s also worth noting that the tournament has been played at various times of the season over the years.
The first four editions were in February, 2020’s event was in November before the tournament settled in its current slot last year.
Sinner is back to bid for a hat-trick and he’ll doubtless have his backers given how he’s performed here in the past.
He’s the top seed in 2022 and played well at the recent US Open – remember he was a point away from beating eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz in the last eight.
However, he made a quick return to action in Davis Cup last week and frankly was below his best on a slow court in Bologna, struggling past Francisco Cerundolo in three sets before losing to Mikael Ymer.
I don’t have any qualms about the bookies making him the favourite but I’m rarely a fan of backing the jollies. I’d only want to get involved at 11/4 if I were very confident about his chances and that’s not the case.
Instead, I’m prepared to take another chance on ILYA IVASHKA at 22/1.
Also in the top half of the draw, the Belarusian has played well over the past couple of months in conditions which suit his game.
He was a semi-finalist in Atlanta before making the last 16 at the US Open where, significantly, he pushed Sinner at the way to a fifth set in what has been their only meeting to date. They could meet again in the last four this week.
Ivashka won his maiden ATP title in Winston-Salem last season where there’s also a bit of altitude (it’s around 300m up there) and I’d expect him to be serving plenty of aces here.
The seeds in his quarter are home hope Grigor Dimitrov and Holger Rune but neither is in great form right now and this looks a decent opportunity for a player who should be raring to go after a three-week break.
I also looked for the big hitters in the bottom section and under normal circumstances I might be keen on Jack Draper and Oscar Otte.
However, Draper is playing for the first time since limping out of the US Open with a thigh issue, while Otte has gone 0-5 since post-Wimbledon knee surgery.
Perhaps last week’s pick, MARC-ANDREA HUESLER, can go well seven days late.
He was in fine form in Winston-Salem last month, serving very well – I posted the data in last week’s column.
The Swiss let us down in San Diego, although perhaps the turnaround from Davis Cup duty was too short.
He’s better rested now, should be tough to break at this altitude and could be an awkward opening foe for second seed Pablo Carreno Busta, who’ll be playing for the first time since the US Open.
At 40/1, let’s give him another go to small stakes.
Eugene Korea Open
- Seoul, South Korea (outdoor hard)
With China not on the calendar again this year, the ATP Tour is back in Seoul this week for the first time since 1996.
They’ll play on DecoTurf at the venue built for the 1988 Olympics, one used over the past week by the WTA with Ekaterina Alexandrova winning the title. It wasn’t massively fast or slow.
Three of the world’s top 12 will be in attendance - namely Casper Ruud, Cameron Norrie and Taylor Fritz – but the trio all face the long flight from London where they were playing in the Laver Cup on Sunday.
While all three have first-round byes (some therefore won’t have to start until Thursday), that’s far from ideal preparation, especially going west to east means they lose time in flight. Certainly none of them will be taking to the practice court until Tuesday at the earliest.
As a result, I couldn’t back any of them with any confidence.
Neither am I that keen on the next two seeds off the rank.
Denis Shapovalov at least managed to raise his level towards the end of the North American hardcourt swing but he’s still only won just five of his last 16 matches, while you have to go back to Rome to find the last occasion he claimed three wins in a row.
Add in that famous fact I keep bringing up – that the Canadian has just one ATP title to his name – and I’m happy to look elsewhere.
As for Dan Evans, the concern in backing him is his first-round draw.
The Briton has to face Yoshihito Nishioka in his opener, one he heads into with a 0-5 head-to-head record. Two of those defeats have come this year, while Evans has previously admitted his dislike of playing the Japanese.
Of those at bigger prices, it will be interesting to see if Soonwoo Kwon can be one of those who lifts his game playing in front of home fans.
He’s benefited from the withdrawal of Brandon Nakashima in his section of the draw but there’s not too much I’m seeing in his recent form to suggest he’ll suddenly put it all together, no matter what the motivation.
Mackenzie McDonald looked better in San Diego last week, pushing Jenson Brooksby to a deciding set. If improvement continues, he could have potential at 40/1.
However, again, I’m far from convinced.
In what looks a trappy affair, my recommendation is a small bet on BORNA CORIC at 7/1.
The sixth seed looks in a decent section of the draw – Shapovalov is the higher-ranked player in his quarter, with Norrie a potential semi-final foe.
It was only last month that the Croat was the surprise champion in Cincinnati, while he should also be buoyed by knowing he’s delivered during the Asian swing in the past – he’s a former finalist at the Shanghai Masters.
Both of those events were playing fairly quick conditions. While he may not get his ideal conditions this week, it won’t be slow, especially with the weather forecast showing temperatures will be in the high 20s most of the week.
Of course, Coric can be very hit or miss – way too many first-round losses dent his hopes of really climbing the rankings. Hence, the low staking plan.
It’s certainly a bet to go into with your eyes wide open but if Coric does get up and running – and his draw certainly gives him that opportunity - he’s been playing well enough to challenge for another title.
Last updated 1020 BST on 26/09/2022
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