Andy Schooler previews this week’s tournaments in Vienna and Basel as the race for places at the season-ending ATP Finals hots up.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
2pts win Andrey Rublev in the Erste Bank Open at 8/1 (Sky Bet, William Hill)
0.5pt e.w. Dan Evans in the Erste Bank Open at 35/1 (BetVictor)
1pt e.w. Marin Cilic in the Swiss Indoors at 14/1 (Sky Bet, Betfred)
Erste Bank Open
- Vienna, Austria (indoor hard)
Vienna promises much this year.
Four of the world’s top 10 are in a star-studded field, whose eight seeds all are taken from the top 16 in the ATP rankings.
As well as a prestigious title, 500 ranking points are up for grabs which should focus the minds of a host of contenders seeking one of the last three spots available at the season-ending ATP Finals.
For some, such as Daniil Medvedev, it’s a case of hold what you have – he’s in a qualifying position and a good week here would confirm his place in the Turin event.
For others, think Cameron Norrie and Jannik Sinner, they are approaching last-chance saloon and while 1,000 points will be up for grabs in Paris next week, a poor week here will probably leave things too much out of their own hands.
It makes sense to be backing at least one of those chasing a qualification spot and I certainly see little appeal in siding with those who have already booked their Finals berth.
I wrote last week about how I was happy to take on Stefanos Tsitsipas for that reason and he duly failed to win in Stockholm. He looks opposable again this week as the second seed.
As for Medvedev – the only man in this field ranked above Tsitsipas – I remain unconvinced by him at the moment.
I don’t think we’ve seen his best tennis often enough in 2022 and the last time we saw him there was his bizarre withdrawal mid-match against Novak Djokovic in Astana, which was later attributed to an adductor injury. “I heard a strange pop,” he said afterwards.
Presumably he’s recovered; if he hasn’t, then the draw he’s been handed will look even more tricky than it already does.
Opening foe Nikoloz Basilashvili can cause problems for the best on his day, while next up is likely to be home hero Dominic Thiem, who is really beginning to find his form again following last year’s wrist surgery.
He made the semis in Gijon and Antwerp the last two weeks so perhaps home advantage, at an event he won in 2019, can take him that extra step.
Jannik Sinner is also in the same quarter.
The Italian enjoys indoor hardcourt conditions and last year’s semi-finalist will doubtless have his backers.
However, he’s not been on a match court since retiring injured in Sofia three weeks ago and, given the ATP Finals qualification situation, there’s a nagging doubt that he may have rushed back a bit too soon.
At around the same price, preference is for ANDREY RUBLEV, who looks to have a kinder draw in the second quarter.
Out-of-sorts Diego Schwartzman is first up, followed by another player struggling for form, Grigor Dimitrov (or a qualifier).
Cameron Norrie is the other seed in this section but Rublev leads their head-to-head 2-1 and was a dominant winner of their recent US Open clash.
Since heading indoors, Rublev has reached the semi-finals in Astana (losing to Tsitsipas) and won the title in Gijon.
Admittedly he does have a poor record against fellow Russian Medvedev, although Rublev was victorious the last time they met (Cincinnati last year).
Meanwhile, Rublev and Sinner have only ever played three games on a hardcourt so I’m reading little into their head-to-head stats.
At 8/1, Rublev gets the nod.
Down in the bottom half alongside Tsitsipas, Hubert Hurkacz and Matteo Berrettini both need points for their ATP Finals chase.
However, Hurkacz keeps finding someone a bit too good for him during this indoor swing, while Berrettini heads here off the back of a runner-up effort in Napoli.
Losing to Lorenzo Musetti on Sunday might not be the worst result in the world but I’m concerned about him heading from those outdoor courts and indoors – a switch Andy Murray always said was a tough one to make.
Add that onto the Italian’s notoriously poor record against the elite – he’s won just one of his last 13 against top-10ers and seven of 20 against the top 20 – and he’s happily left alone.
Perhaps Taylor Fritz – another one still in the Turin race – can take advantage, although that’s not something I’d bet on.
The American has enjoyed a fine season but he’s never been at his best indoors – his CV shows no titles and just two finals in his career so far.
I’m therefore looking at those further down the market in this section and think DAN EVANS might be worth a each-way punt.
This is the penultimate week of the Briton’s season and I reckon he’ll be ready to give everything in a final push over the next fortnight.
Having travelled to the US and then Asia, last week he finally headed indoors in Antwerp and played two very solid matches (remaining unbroken in both) before running into Felix Auger-Aliassime – and he was just a tie-break away from defeating the eventual champion.
A slight concern is that conditions are probably a little slower than ideal for Evans but, that said, Antwerp isn’t the fastest hardcourt around, while he did make the semis here two years ago.
Berrettini first up is obviously awkward but I’ve already explained why he might be worth taking on and if Evans is able to come through that, then his odds of 35/1 will have come tumbling in.
Swiss Indoors
- Basel, Switzerland (indoor hard)
The field in Basel isn’t as strong – and, of course, there’s no Roger Federer this year - but it’s still a good one with five of the world’s top 20 involved.
They include Felix Auger-Aliassime, currently in the final qualifying position for the ATP Finals, and Pablo Carreno Busta, one of those whose hopes of reaching Turin are still flickering.
It usually plays faster here than in Vienna which isn’t great news for PCB, who has failed to impress since moving indoors.
I’ll take him on, as I will Auger-Aliassime, who is now chasing his third title in as many weeks.
Casper Ruud achieved this feat on clay in 2021 but the last player to do it on hardcourts was Andy Murray in 2011.
In short, it’s a big ask, even for someone who clearly has a carrot dangling in front of him.
Carlos Alcaraz is the top seed and he’s also in the same half as the aforementioned duo.
He struggled indoors in Astana recently, losing to David Goffin, and you wonder what we’ll see from the Spaniard this week.
Alcaraz could do with rediscovering his form in time for those ATP Finals but his indoor experience is limited and I’m not really interested in backing the US Open champion at around 3/1, particularly after that Astana display.
Jack Draper in round one is certainly no gimme – if he brings his A-game, that’s a match which could really reap big rewards for the Briton, who took a set off Hubert Hurkacz in Antwerp last week.
I believe Draper is going places and thought he might be worth a long shot but 25s isn’t long enough to get me involved.
I prefer taking someone in the bottom section though and that man is MARIN CILIC.
The Croatian has won this title before, in 2016, while he was also a semi-finalist the following year.
As I’ve pointed out several times in this column in the past six months or so, Cilic has played pretty well in 2022 and conditions can work in his favour this week.
He looks the most natural of the seeds in the bottom half, the others being Alex de Minaur, Roberto Bautista Agut and Casper Ruud.
Stockholm champion Holger Rune won in Stockholm at the weekend but he’s now facing the challenge of going back-to-back for the first time, something which won’t be easy given De Minaur awaits in round one.
Cilic has the tools to take advantage.
He already made an ATP during the current indoor swing, losing to Novak Djokovic in the Tel Aviv title match, a result that is never a disgrace.
He did lose to Karen Khachanov in the last 16 in Astana, although perhaps that can be partially attributed to his effort in Israel the previous week.
Either way, it’s not enough to put me off backing him in conditions that clearly suit his big-hitting game, one which has generally been working well for some time.
Cilic at 14/1 gets the vote.
Preview posted 2055 BST on 23/10/22
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