Andy Schooler delivered a profit again last week. Now check out his 20/1 and 60/1 picks for this week’s ATP Masters 1000 tournament in Montreal.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
1pt e.w. Matteo Berrettini in National Bank Open at 20/1 (Sky Bet, bet365 1/2 1,2)
0.5pt e.w. Jenson Brooksby in National Bank Open at 60/1 (Unibet 1/2 1,2)
National Bank Open
- Montreal, Canada (outdoor hard)
Masters 1000 tennis returns this week in Montreal where preparations for the forthcoming US Open ramp up another level.
History for this event, probably best known as the Canadian Masters, shows that like many of the 1000-level tournaments it has been dominated by the so-called Big Four over recent years with 14 of the last 17 titles going to messrs Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray.
However, of that famous quartet, only Murray will be in attendance in 2022 and sadly he’s a shadow of his former self these days.
Yes, he’s still capable of hitting the heights on odd days but stringing things together for a week, particularly at this level, seems increasingly difficult for the Briton.
So, maybe we’ll get a new name on the trophy, although the bookies actually believe it’s most likely to be the same name engraved on it 12 months ago - Daniil Medvedev.
He returned to action in pretty impressive fashion last week, winning in Los Cabos to claim his first title in 11 months.
Medvedev defeated our pick Cameron Norrie in the final, although at least the Briton landed each-way spoils to earn a profit on last week’s preview.
The Russian swiftly moves from Mexico to Canada where conditions will be cooler, although the court surface should play quicker.
That leads us onto a couple of important points for punters to note this week.
First, this tournament alternates between two different venues – last year it was held in Toronto – and that is worth noting when studying player event history.
Here’s one example – Grigor Dimitrov has made one semi-final and two quarter-finals in Canada but all three runs came in Toronto. He’s done little in Montreal.
While data has suggested Toronto plays a little faster than Montreal, conditions haven’t varied wildly between the two cities so it’s not really a big factor as far as I’m concerned (he says after spending several paragraphs writing about the subject).
Secondly, they still play on DecoTurf in Montreal – that’s the reason I used the past tense in the previous paragraph.
Toronto moved onto Laykold last season to fall in line with the new US Open surface (one which played pretty quick last year) but that’s not the case here.
Any way, back to Medvedev and perhaps the most worrying thing for his potential backers this week is the draw which has thrown up Nick Kyrgios as a likely first opponent.
That’s a real blockbuster for round two (Kyrgios will need to beat Sebastian Baez first) and it means only one of the top three in the betting definitely won’t make it into the last 16.
That could work in favour of those punters happy to take the pair on with a longer shot.
Having won the Washington final on Sunday evening, Kyrgios faces a quick turnaround, facing Baez on Tuesday before, presumably, then meeting Medvedev on Wednesday.
The ideal scenario for opposing punters would be for Kyrgios to find the energy to win those first two rounds but then start feeling the fatigue in the latter stages.
Perhaps Hubert Hurkacz, the next highest seed in the quarter, could take advantage but I prefer to look down to what looks a fairly weak second quarter and back 60/1 shot JENSON BROOKSBY.
As I suspected it might, Brooksby’s form found an immediate uptick upon him hitting the hardcourts and he duly made the Atlanta final, putting behind him a miserable few months on clay and grass.
After his efforts in Atlanta, it wasn’t a great surprise to see him lose early in Washington last week, although that loss was given some gloss when his conqueror, Yoshihito Nishioka, went on to reach the final.
The few days off it allowed the 21-year-old is also a positive in terms of this tournament – a player with a run-all-day game like his does need the odd rest - and he should be raring to go again.
Brooksby opens against Alexander Bublik but the seeds in this section make this a good part of the draw to be in.
If the seedings pan out, Roberto Bautista Agut, Casper Ruud and Felix Auger-Aliassime are the men Brooksby will need to beat to reach the semis and that looks a pretty kind route by Masters standards.
With the surface of medium speed, Brooksby’s defence-based game should have a chance to shine and while early quotes of 75/1 are gone, 60s still looks worth taking to small stakes.
He really enjoyed this time of the season last year to announce himself to the main tour and this looks a chance to move onto the next level.
The bottom half of the draw is led by Carlos Alcaraz, who is a best price of 5/1.
The layers took note big time of the Spaniard’s runs on the North American hardcourts in Indian Wells and Miami earlier in the year and the days of backing him at a decent price look long gone.
I’m not interested in 5s.
Alcaraz made a quick return to action after Wimbledon, opting to head back onto his favourite clay surface in Hamburg and Umag.
He probably expected to pocket a couple of titles but instead suffered shock defeats in both finals, losing to Lorezno Musetti and Jannik Sinner respectively.
That took his run of tournaments without a win to four – hardly a disgrace but also a far cry from earlier in the season.
It certainly throws up the question of whether he’s ready to win in a field of this strength on his return to the hardcourts for the first time since Miami in early April.
I prefer to look elsewhere, specifically to a man who is four times the price.
The player in question is MATTEO BERRETTINI.
OK, he’s also playing his first hardcourt event in many months but I also think he’ll be champing at the bit.
The Italian has long been a contender on all surfaces and his recent results have been strong.
Since returning from hand surgery in June, he’s won Stuttgart and Queen’s on the grass before being forced to miss Wimbledon due to COVID.
That was a massive blow to a man who had been chalked up as the second favourite but he showed few signs of a mental hangover on the clay of Gstaad where he reached the final and was a tie-break away from beating Ruud before losing in three sets.
Berrettini’s injury arose on the hardcourts of Indian Wells back in March but it should be remembered that prior to that he’d made the last four of the Australian Open and he’ll have no qualms about moving onto this surface.
Umag winner Sinner and third seed Stefanos Tsitsipas are both in Berrettini’s quarter. Both will have a chance but neither is as big as 20/1 which is big enough to tempt me in.
Published at 0900 BST on 08/08/22
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