Andy Schooler brings you his outright preview of the Mutua Madrid Open and, with Jannik Sinner a red-hot favourite, seeks out some value picks.
Tennis betting tips: Madrid Open
0.5pt e.w. Flavio Cobolli at 50/1 (bet365, betway 1/2 1-2)
0.5pt e.w. Andrey Rublev at 125/1 (bet365 1/2 1-2)
1pt Jiri Lehecka to win the second quarter at 8/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Mutua Madrid Open
- Madrid, Spain (outdoor clay)
With no Carlos Alcaraz or Novak Djokovic in opposition, Jannik Sinner is being sent off an 8/15 favourite for the second Masters 1000 event of the claycourt season, the Madrid Open.
Having already won in Monte Carlo (where he defeated Alcaraz in the final), it’s hard to look past the Italian for a potential champion – if he plays anywhere near his best, he’s probably going to win.
Yet his odds are only for the biggest of hitters and if you want to try to find chinks in the armour, there are at least some things to cling to.
Perhaps most important are the conditions.
Playing in Madrid is a lot different to Monte Carlo, where Sinner last played just over a week ago.
The Spanish capital sits at around 650m above sea level and that altitude makes it the quickest of the French Open warm-up events.
I’ve said it before but in terms of preparation for the claycourt Grand Slam, it makes little sense playing here, with Monte Carlo and Rome much more akin to conditions that will be found in Paris.
The thinner air gives an advantage to the big servers, whose weapon is often nullified by the slower clay, although ball control remains a key factor for those aiming to go deep.
And it can be argued that Sinner hasn’t fully got to grip with these conditions yet – indeed his experience of them is fairly limited.
The world number one missed the 2025 and 2023 editions of this event and his best effort so far has been to reach the last eight in 2024.
Overall, he has a 6-2 win-loss record in his three visits to the Caja Magica with just one of those victories coming against a seeded opponent.
In short, he has a bit to prove solely in terms of Madrid, although I’m far from suggesting he won’t be able to improve his record over the next couple of weeks.
The points raised do, however, pose the question as to whether 8/15 is really the right price and maybe he can be taken on in some shape or form.
The most obvious man to do that with is Alex Zverev, who looks the correct second favourite.
He has won here twice before and made another final. He has the big serve capable of doing real damage up in Madrid.
However, the bookies are wise to this and he’s no bigger than 10/1 – and that’s with firms only offered a third of the odds for a place in the final.
The German has played pretty well so far this year but the fact is that he’s contested six individual tournaments thus far and failed to make a final. He’s lost in the semis five times, more evidence for those who doubt him in the big matches.
His highest win by ranking in 2026 is beating the world number 19, while you have to go back to 2022 for his last top-10 victory in Madrid. Meanwhile, his recent record against Sinner (lost the last eight, including the last 12 sets) is woeful and gives little hope to backers of him beating the top seed, should they meet in the final.
Overall, while I respect Zverev’s chance, I’m not sure there’s a great deal of value in his price.
He’s hardly a lock-in in that bottom half of the draw where there are plenty of players who look capable of challenging.
Alexander Bublik and Felix Auger-Aliassime have that dangerous serve that can be so useful here, while Casper Ruud is the reigning champion (although I’m put off the latter by his recent calf injury in Monte Carlo).
Instead, I think FLAVIO COBOLLI is worth considering.
The Italian might not be the first player you think about in terms of success at this venue but he arrives in Madrid having had the advantage of playing at a similar altitude in Munich last week, where he lost in the final.
He notably beat Zverev convincingly at the semi-final stage there and enjoyed a good serving week, being broken just three times in his four matches before the final. Zverev certainly struggled on return in their last-four clash.
Cobolli, who has already won an ATP title this season in Acapulco, looks pretty well drawn in Zverev’s fourth quarter.
Learner Tien and Daniil Medvedev are the seeds in his section and neither is particularly at home on this surface.
Zverev could follow in the quarter-finals and after last week’s match, Cobolli would head into any such meeting high on confidence.
The Italian is worth a small try – take the 50/1 offering half the odds in their each-way terms, or the 66/1 (a third).
Given what I’ve said about Sinner, I’m also going to try a real long shot in the top half where ANDREY RUBLEV’s price caught the eye.
The Russian won here two years ago when he defeated Alcaraz en route to the title and is another of those players who when he’s in the serving groove, is very difficult to break.
Admittedly, Rublev was a big disappointment when we backed him in Monte Carlo recently, but he responded well last week in Barcelona, making the final before losing to the red-hot Arthur Fils.
Rublev is 11-4 in Madrid and I’m sure he’ll be returning here with great memories of his 2024 run, which should add to his confidence.
Like most players, Rublev holds a losing record (3-7) against Sinner, who is a potential quarter-final foe, but he did upset him at the Canadian Masters in 2024 and does have a decent track record of pulling off underdog wins in these Masters events.
‘Rublo’ looks to have a decent path through to the last eight with Arthur Rinderknech and Alex de Minaur the other seeds in his section and so I’m going to have a small slice of that 125/1 quote.
Finally, the quarter markets often have potential at these Masters events, as we discovered in Miami when the aforementioned Fils gave us a 13/2 winner.
I’m struggling to find a confident pick in Q3 but the second quarter looks worth a visit.
This is where we find the in-form Fils, who is now very much on the bookies’ radar – he’s the 33/1 third favourite.
After winning in Barcelona last week, it would be no surprise if the French ace enjoyed another deep run. However, he’s in a tough section and could have to beat Valentin Vacherot and Munich champion Ben Shelton just to reach the quarter-finals.
I did consider Vacherot here after his impressive efforts in Monte Carlo, albeit that was his home tournament.
He has the serve to cause problems here but that tough draw puts me off backing him in the quarter, which he is 11/1 to win.
Instead, I’m heading to the bottom part of the quarter where JIRI LEHECKA looks the call.
Lorenzo Musetti is the man seeded to make the last eight but he’s struggled since his return from injury and looks well short of his best right now.
Lehecka can take advantage.
His serve was immaculate in Miami last month, where he made the final, and if his first shot is that good here, then he’ll be a tough man to break.
The Czech has course form, too, making the semis in Madrid in 2024 when he beat Rafael Nadal and was only stopped when injury struck in his last-four meeting with Auger-Aliassime.
He does have a potentially awkward opener against Alejandro Tabilo, who pushed him close in Monte Carlo recently, but the fact is Lehecka has now won all three of their meetings and I’d suggest he’ll be happier facing the Chilean at altitude than down at sea level.
If he does progress to a meeting with Shelton, Fils or Vacherot, he’d have a strong chance – a recent clash with Fils in Miami was lost but only 6-4 in the final set.
So, at a best price of 8/1, Lehecka is my pick for the quarter.
Posted at 13:25 BST on 21/04/26
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