Could the US Open title favourites be vulnerable on Monday? Tennis expert Andy Schooler takes a look.
Tennis betting tips: Daily best bets
1pt Alexander Bublik to win a set v Jannik Sinner at 11/8 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Ekaterina Alexandrova (+4.5) to beat Iga Swiatek on the game handicap at 10/11 (BoyleSports)
Jannik Sinner v Alexander Bublik
Sinner was rocking on Saturday night when Denis Shapovalov was firing – could a repeat by on the cards?
Bublik did beat Sinner in their last meeting which came as recently as June and is in the form of his life right now.
It’s now 25 wins from his last 28 matches and in New York he’s progressed to the last 16 without losing his serve.
That massive first delivery is a huge weapon, one which enjoyed success on the grass of Halle in June. He lost his delivery only once that day and, perhaps most importantly, kept his second-serve points won figure up above 50%.
With plenty of power off the ground too, Bublik will surely go all guns blazing and that’s the sort of tennis which managed to disrupt Sinner and drew plenty of errors from his racquet.
Basically, I don’t think Sinner will have things all his own way here, although I certainly stop short of calling the upset.
While the Italian was on the ropes in the last round, he never panicked and mentally stayed teak tough and quickly managed to turn the match around.
Bublik isn’t a player you can rely on to keep a consistently high level and I can see this match following a similar pattern to Sinner’s last – the Italian won’t be flustered if things don’t go as planned, but Bublik could well unravel like Shapovalov did if his game starts to splutter.
The potential for Bublik to throw in a horror half-hour puts me off backing him on the handicap (he gets 7.5 games) or going over the total games line (32.5).
Instead, I’ll side with him to win a set at 11/8, something he’s done in three of the pair’s previous six meetings.
That market gets us onside with any golden spell he manages but filters out that potential for a horror set from the Kazakh.
Ekaterina Alexandrova v Iga Swiatek
Alexandrova has gone under the radar somewhat in New York but she arrives at this last-16 stage having lost only 10 games so far.
Pre-tournament favourite Swiatek, meanwhile, probably hasn’t been as dominant as many expected. Indeed, she actually dropped a set against Suzan Lamens in the second round where her game really went AWOL for a period.
Anna Kalinskaya also tested her on Saturday when Swiatek trailed 5-1 in the opening set and had to save four set points before winning in straights.
As well as her impressive form, Alexandrova will also be able to draw on a decent record against the Pole.
While 2-4 down overall, it’s 2-2 on hardcourts with Alexandrova winning the last such meeting in straight sets last season in Miami, an event which is also played on Laykold courts.
Admittedly, Swiatek has taken revenge since then, although that came on the grass of Bad Homburg just prior to Swiatek’s surprise Wimbledon title.
It was fairly close that day though – 6-4 7-6 – and it’s interesting to see the game handicap here gives Alexandrova a 4.5-game start.
That’s one she’s now managed to cover in five of those six previous meetings and therefore that looks a good way of getting with the in-form underdog here.
Posted at 1845 BST on 31/08/25
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