Briton Jack Draper faces Casper Ruud in the Mutua Madrid Open final on Sunday – Andy Schooler picks out his best bets.
Tennis betting tips: Madrid Open final
1.5pts Jack Draper to beat Casper Ruud 2-0 at 5/4 (bet365, Sky Bet)
Casper Ruud v Jack Draper (1730 BST)
An injury cloud hangs over Sunday’s Madrid Open final.
Casper Ruud was troubled by a rib problem during his semi-final victory over Francisco Cerundolo on Friday and while he managed to haul himself over the line, it was clear his serve wasn’t at its best.
Usually pretty strong on serve, Ruud faced 18 break points in just two sets against the Argentine and can ill afford a repeat of that here against a player in red-hot form.
“I wasn’t sure I was going to be able to finish the match, honestly,” said Ruud after his win. “I felt something in my rib during the warm-up, just towards the end before going out, and I felt it in nearly every shot, especially the serve.”
He admitted playing on painkillers but added things did feel “better as the match went on”.
However, he’ll be concerned about how his body pulls up the day after when, with the analgesics worn off and the adrenaline gone, the real aches and pains will be known.
It’s a far-from-ideal preparation for what will be one of the biggest matches of the Norwegian’s career.
Yes, Ruud has played in Grand Slam finals but he’s never won one and, likewise, he’s yet to lift a Masters 1000 trophy.
In contrast, Draper achieved just that the other week so it’s not hard to suggest that the nerves and pressure will be on the older player on this occasion.
I guess the question for punters is have the markets overreacted to Ruud’s injury?
Draper goes off 1/2 and Ruud 9/5.
It is fair to say Draper would likely be a tad longer without the injury news but he’d still be a solid favourite.
The Briton, who will crack the world’s top five on Monday, is enjoying an excellent season and heads into this match with a 19-4 win-loss record.
The Indian Wells champion hasn’t been at all fazed by the switch to clay and the altitude conditions of Madrid have proved ideal for his power-based game.
The serve, in particular, has been firing with Draper making it a massive weapon in these conditions.
In five matches so far, he’s been broken only twice which is incredibly impressive.
Ruud is the latest to get the chance to deal with that delivery but the fact he’s never faced it before – this is the pair’s first meeting – surely only adds to his troubles here.
Draper has been a model of consistency from the back of the court with his clean striking and, frankly, I’d be pretty confident of him winning this even if Ruud were fully fit.
The bet I like most is for DRAPER TO WIN IN STRAIGHT SETS.
He’s yet to lose a set in Madrid thus far and given those serving numbers, it’s not hard to see why.
And that’s not to say he’s been poor on return – he’s broken on multiple occasions in every match bar the one against Matteo Berrettini, which ended with a withdrawal after the first set.
Two sets have gone to tie-breaks but Draper is now 7-3 for the season in breakers (Ruud is 3-2).
It’s also worth considering the aces.
If Ruud’s rib is still an issue (which seems likely), his serve will surely again be affected. On return, he’s yet to see Draper’s serve in matchplay so a few early aces would be no surprise while he gets a read on the delivery.
Draper is giving up a 2.5 start on the handicap.
The concern is Draper hasn’t served more than five in a match so far in Madrid and, if that is repeated, it means he’s going to have to limit Ruud too.
Maybe this is a bet best placed in-running (if the market is offered), once you’ve seen how Ruud is serving and moving.
Posted at 1530 BST on 03/05/25
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.