There’s no Rafael Nadal at this week’s Monte-Carlo Masters and Andy Schooler is also taking on Novak Djokovic with 50/1 and 66/1 shots.
Tennis betting tips: Monte-Carlo Masters
1pt e.w. Cameron Norrie at 50/1 (BoyleSports 1/2 1-2)
1pt e.w. Andrey Rublev at 66/1 (BoyleSports 1/2 1-2)
1pt Grigor Dimitrov to win the fourth quarter at 9/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters
- Monte Carlo, Monaco (outdoor clay)
You know the claycourt season is properly under way when the ATP Tour hits Monte Carlo.
The other visual klaxon that tells you this is usually Rafael Nadal lifting the trophy at the famous country club with its idyllic views of the Mediterranean.
However, the Spaniard is injured this year so he won’t be winning a 12th title at the event.
Despite Nadal’s absence, the market has still managed to conjure up an even-money favourite in the shape of world number one Novak Djokovic.
Now, he may well be the greatest player ever to pick up a racquet but that’s not a price I’m interested in at all.
Granted, Djokovic has the ability to win here, of course he does.
But the fact is he’s not played competitively for six weeks (when he was beaten by Daniil Medvedev in Dubai), hasn’t contested a claycourt match since last May and now heads to venue at which he’s lost six of his 13 matches since winning the title in 2015.
Djokovic has been beaten by Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Dan Evans and Jiri Vesely in that period.
I want my even-money shots to look rock solid and, for me, Djokovic is far from that in Monte Carlo.
Perhaps Stefanos Tsitsipas can instead triumph; after all he’s won this tournament in each of the last two years.
Yet the hat-trick seeking Greek has struggled since reaching the Australian Open final, going just 2-3 on the tour.
While I’m very much of the opinion that a move onto a different surface can be the catalyst for a change in form, I’d want to be more convinced before placing my money down at 7/1.
Instead, this is a tournament where I’m going back to my default position of trying to find some value further down the market.
Let’s start with the top half of the draw, the section in which Djokovic resides.
Medvedev has been in sparkling form, winning four of this last five tournaments, but he’s never really got to grips with the clay and having seen him rant and rave about the slow courts in Indian Wells last month, it’s easy to put a line through him as he heads onto the red dirt.
Jannik Sinner has also been in good nick of late, earning us a profit in Miami, but he left Florida struggling physically and a tough opener here against either former semi-finalist David Goffin or Diego Schwartzman is rather off-putting. I’d want more than 11/1.
The one I’m prepared to back here is CAMERON NORRIE at 50s.
While most would regard his favourite surface as hardcourts, he’s always been adept on the clay and has already showed that this season.
Opting to hit the clay in South America in February, Norrie reached the final of Buenos Aires where he lost to Carlos Alcaraz before reversing that result the following week to win the title in Rio de Janeiro.
Last season, Norrie claimed victory in Lyon, so it’s not as if he’s struggled on the European clay.
He’s already won 21 matches this season and while he let this column down by disappointing in Miami last time out, I’m prepared to forgive him for one bad day at the office.
Admittedly, Norrie faces a tough opener against Francisco Cerundolo, a clay specialist, but the Argentine hasn’t pulled up any trees on the surface so far this year, going a disappointing 4-3.
If the Briton can progress past that, there’s every chance he can build momentum if he finds the groove he was in during that ‘Golden Swing’ through South America.
Rublev over Ruud in bottom section
In the bottom half of the draw, that of Tsitsipas, I’m sure some will now be prepared to back Casper Ruud.
At time of writing, he’s due to play in the final in Estoril, having put a rough few months behind him.
While a short price about the Norwegian wasn’t for me in Portugal, it’s no great surprise that a return to his favoured claycourts has resulted in an upturn.
That said, it would be wrong to suggest Ruud has sudden sparkled. That hasn’t been the case in Estoril where he struggled through his opener and needed a final-set tie-break to win his semi-final.
He’ll arrive here with confidence renewed to some extent but he’ll need to raise his game another level to compete against the higher-quality opposition.
The seeds in his section include Taylor Fritz and Alex de Minaur, neither of whom have much of a reputation on this surface.
Frances Tiafoe is also seeded but at time of writing he’s stuck in Houston where rain has wreaked havoc and there’s every chance he doesn’t even make it to the start line in Monaco.
That could play to Tsitsipas’, or Ruud’s, advantage but the player I like at a much bigger price is ANDREY RUBLEV.
He very much fits the bill as a player who I can see producing better results having switched surface.
Unlike Medvedev, Rublev isn’t frustrated by the slower clay and is prepared to be patient and build points.
He’s done it well here in the past, making the 2021 final.
Last season, Rublev beat Djokovic en route to the Belgrade title and then made the quarter-finals at Roland Garros where he blew a great chance to go even further, losing a final-set tie-break to Marin Cilic.
While he’s not been at his best so far this season, he’s mainly lost to the elite, suffering defeats to Sinner, Norrie, Medvedev and Djokovic.
I feel the surface change is what he needs right now and a decent enough draw provides an opportunity to play himself into better form.
First up is likely to be Jaume Munar before meeting fellow Russian Karen Khachanov.
Then could come Ruud, although Rublev leads their head to head 4-2 and has actually won all three previous meetings on clay. Tsitsipas is the man seeded to be waiting in the last four – Rublev is 6-6 against the Greek.
Overall, I don’t think that’s a bad draw and an each-way punt at 66/1 certainly looks worth a try. I’d be happy to take smaller prices than that too.
Finally, I’m going to turn to the quarter markets where I’m tempted enough to back GRIGOR DIMITROV.
I highlighted the Bulgarian’s decent form points prior to Indian Wells and duly backed him only for injury to strike.
Part of the reason for supporting Dimitrov in the Californian desert was his decent record at the event and we’ve got a similar scenario here.
Dimitrov made the semis here 12 months ago, just as he had done in 2018. He’s also been to two other Monte-Carlo quarter-finals.
Last year Davidovich Fokina rallied from a break down in the final set to oust Dimitrov, whose previous three defeats here all came at the hands of a certain Mr Nadal.
This season Dimitrov finds himself in a section of the draw where Fritz and Tiafoe are the seeds.
Tsitsipas is arguably the main danger and he does lead Dimitrov 6-1 on the head-to-head.
However, the last two have both gone to a final-set breaker, including on the clay of Rome last spring.
At 9/1, give Dimitrov a try to win the fourth quarter.
Posted at 0830 BST on 09/04/23
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