French Open done; now preparation for Wimbledon begins – Andy Schooler previews this week’s ATP grasscourt events in Stuttgart and Den Bosch.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour, Boss Open & Libema Open
1pt e.w. Ugo Humbert in the Libema Open at 25/1 (Betfred)
0.75pt e.w. Maxime Cressy in the Libema Open at 14/1 (bet365)
0.75pt e.w. Lorenzo Sonego in the Boss Open at 18/1 (BetVictor, William Hill)
0.5pt e.w. Benjamin Bonzi in the Boss Open at 35/1 (BetVictor)
0.5pt e.w. Oscar Otte in the Boss Open at 40/1 (General)
Boss Open
- Stuttgart, Germany (outdoor grass)
Plenty of the world’s best get their grasscourt shoes on at the first opportunity this week with seven of the top 20 on show in Stuttgart.
In addition, last year’s Wimbledon runner-up Nick Kyrgios makes his comeback.
Yet my approach this week is very much to look beyond the big guns, who inevitably (but not always correctly) sit towards the top of the market.
The reason is simple – the surface.
Much is said these days about the homogenisation of the courts in tennis but while the skillset required on grass is probably not as varied as it once was, it remains different to the one required to succeed on other surfaces.
It’s indisputable that the grass does cause problems for many of the top players.
Take top seed here, Stefanos Tsitsipas.
He’s beaten just two top-20 players on this surface and has never gone beyond the last 16 at Wimbledon.
Yes, he did win a title on grass last season in Mallorca but the field here is considerably better.
Expect to see his backhand deficiencies exposed and I simply can’t be backing the Greek – last seen getting battered by Carlos Alcaraz at Roland Garros - as the 9/2 favourite this week.
To me, Taylor Fritz and Frances Tiafoe are both players who need matches under their belt before getting to grips with the grass, while neither can I back two-time champion Matteo Berrettini or Kyrgios this week.
Both are on the comeback trail after injuries and both have real grasscourt pedigree.
But they look very short given their time away from the court – in Kyrgios’ case that’s been since last October.
Of the market leaders, Hubert Hurkacz looks the best bet to me.
He won Halle last season and made the Wimbledon semis the year before with his serve a major weapon on a surface which still favours those with big deliveries, no matter what you may hear elsewhere.
It’s notable that his best results this season have come on faster surfaces with his only title arriving in Marseille, long one of the faster venues on the ATP Tour, while there was a last-16 run at the Australian Open which only ended in a final-set tie-break against Sebastian Korda.
Still, that is a while ago and I remain reluctant to pull the trigger at 8/1.
Hurkacz is in Berrettini’s quarter but LORENZO SONEGO could well take out the champion, who hasn’t played for two months, in round one – and he’s certainly worth considering.
The Italian won on grass in Antalya in 2019 and was runner-up at Eastbourne in 2021 so he can play on this surface.
He’s a strong server – in the top 15 for service games won this season despite his current ranking of 48. Expect tie-breaks against Berrettini and maybe Hurkacz.
He should also arrive in confident mood after a strong French Open which saw him eliminate Andrey Rublev en route to the last 16.
An each-way try at 18/1 looks worth a go.
Also in the top half, I’m going to take a chance on BENJAMIN BONZI.
The Frenchman has a pretty decent record on grass and has landed in a good part of the draw, that of Tsitsipas.
Bonzi made the quarter-finals here 12 months ago when only injury halted his progress and also reached the last four in Mallorca where Denis Shapovalov was among his victims.
He’s twice come through qualifying for Wimbledon and now holds an 18-7 win-loss record on grass. At tour level, that’s a still-decent 9-6.
Tsitsipas and Tommy Paul are the seeds in this section and with neither naturals on this surface, I believe Bonzi has the potential to make an impact at 35/1.
In the bottom half, my long shot hopes are placed on OSCAR OTTE.
He’s another who really enjoyed the grasscourt season in 2022, making the semis both here and in Halle.
Otte made good use of home-country advantage and, having received a wild card, gets another chance to perform in front of his own fans.
He’s got that big serve to win plenty of cheap points and isn’t afraid to come forward when given the opportunity.
Tiafoe and Lorenzo Musetti look two seeds very much worth opposing in this quarter so odds of 40/1 about Otte appeal.
Libema Open
- ‘s-Hertogenbosch, Netherlands (outdoor grass)
I’ll take the same approach in Den Bosch – or to be more specific, Rosmalen, which you may hear the venue referred to.
Of course, top seeds Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner certainly could win but it’s hard to get excited about either’s price.
Of the two, Medvedev looks the better bet.
He’s made the final of three of his last five grasscourt tournaments, although he’s won only one of those – Mallorca in 2021.
Still, at just 2/1, I’m not interested in backing the Russian, particularly given he looks likely to face Adrian Mannarino first up.
The Frenchman knows his way around a grasscourt having won here in 2019 and reached the semi-finals 12 months ago. For the record, Mannarino is on offer at 50/1 in the outright market.
As for Sinner, a 7/2 shot, it’s well known that he led Novak Djokovic by two sets to love at Wimbledon last summer only to lose their quarter-final in five.
But the wins he had in SW19 last season are his only ones on grass at tour level and as the saying goes, one swallow does not make a summer.
Anyway, enough Aristotle and instead let’s talk about the player it’s worth opposing Sinner with in the bottom half and that’s UGO HUMBERT.
With his big, slider, lefty serve, and a natural propensity to come towards the net, Humbert has a natural game for grass.
And he’s delivered on it in the past, winning the 500-level event in Halle in 2021. He’s also been to the last 16 at Wimbledon, the semi-finals in Newport and the quarter-finals in Stuttgart.
That’s a record most ATP players would be happy with and I think there’s some real value in his price of 25/1 given the players around him.
As well as Sinner, Alex de Minaur and Tallon Griekspoor are the other seeds in the bottom half which certainly looks the weaker of the two.
Back in the top half, let’s take on Medvedev with MAXIME CRESSY.
Admittedly, the American has struggled this season but a move onto the grass maybe just what the doctor ordered.
It’s a surface where his big serve can really frustrate opponents – that was certainly the case in 2022 when Cressy finished runner-up in Eastbourne and then, post-Wimbledon, won the title in Newport.
While racking up his losing record on tour this season, Cressy has managed to play at least one tie-break in 13 of his 19 matches which says much about his serve-oriented game.
And on a surface where matches can come down to a handful of key points, I think it’s worth taking a chance on him to shine on the grass again.
Posted at 1715 BST on 11/05/23
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