This week’s Winston-Salem Open has potential for a big-priced winner, says Andy Schooler, and he’s duly picked out 50/1 and 70/1 shots.
Tennis betting tips: Winston-Salem Open
0.5pt e.w. Adam Walton at 50/1 (General)
0.5pt e.w. Kamil Majchrzak at 70/1 (Unibet, BetMGM, Virgin Bet)
Winston-Salem Open
- Winston-Salem, USA (outdoor hard)
There’s one week to go before the US Open begins and so players have one final chance to prepare on the match court in Winston-Salem.
As I’ve written before, the week before a Grand Slam can be tricky for punters but also full of opportunity.
All the usual rules apply – be wary of backing players with real hopes of a good run at the Slam. These guys won’t necessarily want a full week of tennis in their legs ahead of the US Open.
On this front, it’s worth remembering that this year the action in New York starts on a Sunday, less than 24 hours after the Winston-Salem final.
Such players are often those seeded highly this week – think Stefanos Tsitsipas at the top of the draw – while those at a short price are also often worth avoiding due to the potential for withdrawals.
The slightest tweak or ache can lead to a decision to quit ahead of a Grand Slam – expect several this week – while a player might simply decide that three matches under the belt is enough, throw the towel in and head to New York to become accustomed to the courts there.
The good news on that front is they play on the same Laykold courts here as in New York; the last few weeks the ATP Tour has been on a Har-Tru surface. Expect conditions to be fairly quick, albeit not as fast as Cincinnati. The heat and humidity will again be a factor in North Carolina.
Essentially, when looking for a potential champion we’re seeking someone fully motivated and ready to give their all this week before worrying about the US Open afterwards.
If the big guns aren’t that bothered, there’s certainly a chance for those further down the market to claim a prestigious ATP title – and 250 ranking points.
In the top half, I’ve already mentioned Tsitsipas and while I’m not saying he won’t be motivated this week, we need to realise why the former world number three is here at all.
The reason is his form is awful. The Greek has lost four of his last five and hasn’t won back-to-back matches since Barcelona in April.
I feel Gabriel Diallo has a much better chance at a slightly better price – 9/1 rather than 8/1 – although he’s exactly the sort of player in good enough form to feel he’s got a chance of going deep in New York.
The big-serving Canadian also has a tricky section of the draw to deal with – Hamad Medjedovic and Arthur Rinderknech are in quarter two, as are Alexandre Muller and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard.
I considered both Medjedovic (12/1) and Rinderknech (33/1). Both produced some impressive displays in Cincinnati but ultimately struggled in the heat which is a concern, especially when they will need to win six matches in order to capture the title here.
Pablo Carreno Busta is a player with a fine track record in Winston-Salem – that’s another factor often worth looking in a pre-Slam week, someone who have proven they are prepared to go deep just before a major.
I remember backing the Spaniard here last year when he made the semis at a decent price before physical issues ruined his chances of making the final. Sound familiar at all? Yes, I am still thinking about last week’s 22/1 SF loser, Alex Zverev.
PCB, the champion here in 2016, may be able to use his experience to conjure something up at 66/1 but this time around his form isn’t so good. In fact, his highest win by ranking so far this season is just 64 so I can’t be backing him this time.
Instead, I think ADAM WALTON can go well at a big price.
The Australian has certainly shown good signs during the summer hardcourt swing.
He kicked that off in Los Cabos where he made the semi-finals on the ATP Tour for the first time.
In Toronto, Walton was highly competitive in defeat to Zverev, losing only 7-6 6-4.
And then last time out in Cincinnati, he toppled Daniil Medvedev before losing another tight battle to Jiri Lehecka in two tie-breaks.
Across that period, Walton has service hold and break figures of 85% and 27% respectively. A total figure of 112 is excellent, especially when you consider he’s played four members of the top 35 during it.
Yes, it’s a small sample but one which proves Walton is a man in form. As world number 85, I doubt he’s got delusions of grandeur regarding the US Open and I’m pretty convinced he’ll be looking to make the most of this strong spell by mounting a title challenge this week.
He opens against Botic van de Zandschulp who, in complete contrast, is yet to play a hardcourt match this summer. Matteo Arnaldi could follow but neither he nor the other seed in this section, Sebastian Baez, should strike fear into Walton backers.
I just feel that 50/1 is a tasty price and worth backing.
In the bottom half, second seed Tallon Griekspoor didn’t win a match at either Masters 1000 event over the past month, while Luciano Darderi withdrew injured in Cincinnati after pushing himself to two claycourt titles in the post-Wimbledon period.
Lorenzo Sonego, the fifth seed, has a better chance, in my book. He’s the defending champion and it took Taylor Fritz and Andrey Rublev to stop him at those recent Masters tournaments.
Some will be happy to take 12/1 but I’m not quite convinced.
Again, preference is to head further down the market for a long shot.
I considered Francisco Comesana, who is in the same section of the draw as Sonego.
His strong serve worked well in the fast conditions of Cincinnati and could do so again here.
However, his first three matches could be Mattia Bellucci, Jaume Munar and Sonego and that helps explain why he’s out at 35/1.
I much prefer KAMIL MAJCHRZAK’s early path and believe he’s overpriced at 70/1.
The Pole will be playing his first match in North America this summer having opted to stay behind in Europe after Wimbledon.
One of the reasons for that was so he could play on home soil at the Grodzisk Mazowiecki Challenger and that proved a good decision as he claimed the title there (on a hardcourt).
He therefore made the trans-Atlantic crossing with confidence on the up and, after a week’s preparation for the different conditions, could well carry that into Winston-Salem.
I often feel Majchrzak is regarded as a claycourt player but many of his best results have come in quicker conditions.
This season he’s made the last 16 at Wimbledon, won the Challenger title up in Madrid and made the semis in Marrakech, another altitude venue where the balls have that extra zip.
I also remember backing him in Pune in 2022 before his drugs ban only for him to lose in, you guessed it, the last four.
Here, the Pole will open against Nicolas Jarry, who suffered a miserable first-round loss to Pedro Martinez in Cincinnati. If he wins that, seventh seed Nuno Borges would follow but the Portuguese has struggled for wins of late.
Sebastian Korda could be Majchrzak’s last-16 opponent but the American is playing his first event since Roland Garros following injury and expectations will surely be low. I also doubt Darderi will be around for any potential quarter-final.
In short, that’s a decent draw, one a form player looks capable of coming through.
It’s far from certain but odds of 70/1 aren’t giving the Pole enough respect.
Posted at 1635 BST on 17/08/25
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