Tennis expert Andy Schooler previews this week’s ATP Tour events in Doha, Rio de Janeiro and Delray Beach.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour
0.5pt Jakub Mensik in the Qatar ExxonMobil Open at 50/1 (General)
0.5pt e.w. Alejandro Tabilo in the Rio Open at 25/1 (BetMGM, VirginBet)
1pt e.w. Marin Cilic in the Delray Beach open at 22/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)
Qatar ExxonMobil Open
- Doha, Qatar (outdoor hard)
At all three ATP tournaments last week, the top two seeds played out the final, meaning it was tough going for those trying to think outside the box.
It continued a stronger-than-usual trend so far this season – one of the top two seeds also won in Brisbane, Hong Kong and at the Australian Open.
For any punter seeking value from further down the market – as this column seeks to do - such results are simply the road to the poorhouse.
The pattern seems unlikely to change in Doha this week with the world’s top two, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, both in the field.
In the last 20 tour-level events in which they have both competed, only one has been won by someone else.
I guess it’s a case of take your pick but with neither man bigger than 5/4, I’m frankly not really interested.
While the Big Two are a long way clear of the rest – and have been for some time – it’s worth remembering that Alcaraz lost to Jiri Lehecka here 12 months ago on his tournament debut.
Sinner has never played Doha before and so that puts a smidgen of doubt in one’s mind – these aren’t easy conditions to deal with given a lot of matches are played at night when the court speed is considerably slower.
It will certainly be interesting to see how Sinner settles in given his first match is against Tomas Machac, one of the highest-ranked unseeded players, who has already won an ATP title this season.
If pushed, I’d probably say Sinner is the most vulnerable of the pair here and for those looking for an alternative to the big guns, I’m going to throw JAKUB MENSIK into the mix.
Unlike the Big Two, he’s already played in a final here, doing so in 2024.
He’s also shown some good early-season form, winning the title in Auckland before producing a run to the last 16 of the Australian Open.
It’s what happened next that’s the problem – Mensik withdrew from his scheduled clash with Novak Djokovic, citing an abdominal injury. He’s not played since, pulling out of the Czech Davis Cup team due to the issue.
We can’t be sure how he is now but his choice of words in Melbourne was interesting, saying he wanted “time to recover properly” which suggests it was an issue he wanted to get right rather than making a rash decision to return too soon.
It was also an injury which didn’t really look a big thing during the early rounds in Melbourne, so hopefully a few weeks’ rest has solved things.
If Mensik is back to full fitness, he could prove an awkward customer here with his heavy serve and forehand having that ability to hit through sluggish conditions, as he proved two years ago.
He’ll open against qualifier Jan Choinski and could face another in round two in the shape of Roberto Carballes Baena (it will be him or Zhizhen Zhang, who is still on the comeback trail after injury). Then could come Sinner but the pair have never met and Mensik has weapons which can trouble the best – remember he stunned Novak Djokovic when they faced off for the first time in the Miami final less than a year ago.
As pointed out, it’s rare for the Big Two to both falter in the same week but if that is to happen in 2026, then a 500-level event where motivation is pretty low seems one of the more likely venues.
A minimum-stakes play on Mensik at 50/1 is therefore the suggestion.
Rio Open
- Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (outdoor clay)
Expect slow and hot conditions in Brazil this week – the temperature is expected to be above 30C most days.
It will make this a test of stamina, which helps explain why no player has won Buenos Aires and Rio back-to-back over the years.
That should immediately set the alarm bells ringing for the two market leaders as Francisco Cerundolo and Luciano Darderi both made the final in Argentina (at time of writing, that match had yet to be played).
With this being a 500-level event, there are no first-round byes so the duo will be back in action on Wednesday at the latest and both face tricky openers – Cerundolo plays fellow Argentina Mariano Navone, while Darderi meets Cerundolo’s brother, Juan Manuel.
I wouldn’t want to touch either this week as a short price, while I’m also happy to leave another of the favourites, Joao Fonseca, alone.
He’ll be fully motivated on home soil but the talented youngster had the start of his season delayed by injury and clearly isn’t 100% in terms of match sharpness.
He’s only played two matches and lost them both. While the talent is there for him to emerge from what looks a weak second quarter, it’s hard to trust a player who hasn’t won a match since October.
I’d certainly be keen to see who comes through qualifying and lands in that second quarter – three players will – for they may well have a chance of a good run at a big price. One will meet Fonseca in round one.
However, I don’t have the luxury of waiting for Sunday’s qualifying session to end so instead I’m going to look at the top quarter where opposing Cerundolo looks worthwhile.
Navone is a decent player on the clay and has the potential to topple a weary Cerundolo first up.
I did consider him at 40/1 but I’m instead going with ALEJANDRO TABILO at an even bigger price.
The Chilean have been racking up the wins on the clay in the last few weeks, making a Challenger Tour final in his homeland before progressing to the last eight in Buenos Aires last week.
In the Argentine capital, he beat former champion Facundo Diaz Acosta and then Fonseca before losing in three sets to Tomas Martin Etcheverry from a set up.
In short, he played well – and it’s not for the first time in this part of the season.
Tabilo has reached two finals on the ‘Golden Swing’ of South American claycourt events in the past – Santiago in 2024 and Cordoba in 2022.
A repeat should not be ruled out.
First up for Tabilo will be a meeting with American Emilio Nava and, if he passes that test, seed Alexandre Muller could follow.
Muller did make the final here 12 months ago but that was something of a surprise and this week is his first outing on clay since last year’s French Open.
Top seed Cerundolo is a potential quarter-final foe but, as already suggested, he may not be around by then and, even if he is, it could be a tired version involved. Tabilo also won their only previous encounter.
Basically, I certainly see a route to the latter stages for the 25/1 shot and will place a small wager accordingly.
In the bottom half, one headed up by Darderi, I also considered some options.
Sebastian Baez is also in this section, the two-time winner chasing three titles on the spin in Rio this year.
He was the latest in an incessant run of semi-final losers for this column last week when he was a bigger price (13/2 compared to 5/1). Once bitten, twice shy, as they say.
A couple caught the eye at big prices.
Roman Andres Burruchaga is a player I picked out at the start of the season as having potential to breakthrough at tour level on the clay (he starred on the Challenger Tour on this surface in 2025).
He beat Laslo Djere in Buenos Aires and pushed Etcheverry all the way in the next round. That followed on from a final appearance at the Rosario Challenger on clay.
The problem here is he’s been drawn against Camilo Ugo Carabelli, the player who beat him in that final and did so pretty convincingly. That result is enough to put me off a player who is on offer at 50s.
The other one worth a mention is Pedro Martinez.
The Spaniard was a quarter-finalist last week in Argentina where it took Darderi to beat him.
I’m not sure he should be 80/1 this week but then again it’s not hard to see Baez getting stuck into his weak second serve should they meet in round two.
Overall, this looks a tricky draw and not one worth throwing change away at some long shots who, in all likelihood, will end up disappointing.
I’ll take one shot with Tabilo and hope better opportunities present themselves in the weeks ahead.
Delray Beach Open
- Delray Beach, USA (outdoor hard)
The Plexipave courts of Delray Beach haven’t been known as the quickest hardcourts over the years but the list of winners shows that a big server still has the ability to reign supreme.
Indeed, we are probably seeking someone of that ilk in this preview as the list of recent winners includes Taylor Fritz, Hubert Hurkacz and Reilly Opelka. Even Miomir Kecmanovic, a winner for this column last season, is no mug on that front.
Fritz, a two-time champion, is back for more this year and is probably the correct favourite.
However, the fact that, at time of writing, he’s due to play the final in Dallas has to be a concern for potential backers.
Back-to-back finals is never easy and it becomes more difficult when there’s a significant change of conditions involved.
That’s the case here with indoors in Dallas being replaced by outdoors in Florida where the wind can pick up.
I always remember Andy Murray saying he felt the toughest transition to make was not a change of surface (ie clay to grass) but from indoors to outdoors (or vice versa).
With a first-round bye, Fritz may well not have to play here until Thursday, giving him some extra time to make that transition but it’s still something to make you think twice about backing the 3/1 favourite.
Siding with Casper Ruud, the second seed, at a short price isn’t appealing either, given only two of his 14 ATP titles have been won on a hardcourt. And only one of those has come outdoors – five years ago in San Diego.
My initial view was that Sebastian Korda could be the man to oppose Ruud with in the bottom quarter.
He’s always been a mercurial player, capable of the good, the bad and the ugly, but he looked closer to some of his better stuff in Dallas where he reached the quarter-finals and only lost in a final-set tie-break to Fritz.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see him build on that here but the problem is his odds of 12/1 are shorter than I’d expected, especially when you consider this is one of the stronger sections of the draw.
The same cannot be said of the third quarter which is led by third seed Flavio Cobolli, who looks very much worth taking on.
He lost to qualifier Jack Pinnington-Jones in Dallas last week and while the slower conditions here will help the Italian, I’m still think he’s vulnerable on the hardcourts.
I think the winner of the first-round clash between Brandon Nakashima and MARIN CILIC has every chance of going deep in this section.
Both men possess that big serve which has been important to many former champions in Delray Beach and it’s a contest which should be close which is a little bit off-putting from an outright perspective.
I was very close to siding with Nakashima and won’t be happy if he comes through.
However, based on the evidence at hand – and the prices – I have to go with Cilic.
The Croatian played well in Dallas last week, making the semis. Notably his serve was firing – he held throughout three of his four matches. He’s now gone unbroken in five of his nine matches in 2026.
Cilic also won the pair’s only previous meeting, in Hangzhou in 2024, while he’s a former champion at this event, albeit way back in 2014.
Overall, his record is 5-1 in Delray Beach which is considerably better than Nakashima’s 5-3.
Nakashima did make the final in Brisbane last month but he won’t find conditions as fast here.
I’m sure he’ll have his backers at 12/1 but, at almost twice the price, Cilic looks the man to side with.
Posted at 18:45 GMT on 15/02/26
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