Fresh from a 66/1 winner at the Monte Carlo Masters, Andy Schooler is back with further big-priced plays for this week’s ATP Tour action.
Tennis betting tips: Barcelona Open, BMW Open & Srpska Open
1pt e.w. Lorenzo Musetti in the Barcelona Open at 33/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt e.w. Karen Khachanov in the Barcelona Open at 33/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt e.w. Jan-Lennard Struff in the BMW Open at 16/1 (bet365)
1pt e.w. Tallon Griekspoor in the Srpska Open at 22/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt e.w. Stan Wawrinka in the Srpska Open at 40/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell
- Barcelona, Spain (outdoor clay)
This year’s French Open favourite (on best price) begins his preparations for his Roland Garros title tilt this week in Barcelona.
Unsurprisingly Carlos Alcaraz is a firm favourite to retain the trophy he lifted impressively 12 months ago – you’ll get no bigger than 11/10.
But while Alcaraz’s ability on clay is without question, that’s not a price I want a piece of. Far from it.
Alcaraz has had physical issues of late, struggling in the Rio final against Cameron Norrie before leaving Miami with “post-traumatic arthritis” in his left hand and “muscular discomfort” in the spine.
While the likelihood is he’ll have recovered now, the surface switch has a habit of exacerbating such issues and I’d certainly want to see how he pulls up after the first couple of rounds before getting involved.
The good thing for Alcaraz is that although this 500-level field is a strong one – the top eight seeds all come from the world’s top 20 – there’s no Rafael Nadal (still injured), while many of his main title rivals come in with similar question marks over their heads.
Stefanos Tsitsipas is a two-time finalist here and he heads up the bottom half of the draw.
Yet he’s clearly not completely over a shoulder problem, one he’s described as the worst of his career so far.
The Greek’s comment that he would “never have pictured myself dealing with such an injury” suggests it is a mental issue as well as a physical one that needs to be overcome.
I certainly wouldn’t have envisaged Tsitsipas losing 6-2 6-4 to Taylor Fritz in Monte Carlo last week and while his price here has drifted out to 8/1 as a result, it’s still not one I can back with any confidence.
Likewise, Casper Ruud still looks well short of his best.
The Norwegian battled his way to the title in Estoril recently but last week in Monte Carlo he was beaten in straight sets by Jan-Lennard Struff.
Again, there’s little appeal in backing him at the price (10/1).
Of the top four seeds, the one who is perhaps a bit of value is Jannik Sinner.
He transitioned onto the clay well last week, making the last four in Monte Carlo before losing to Holger Rune.
Sinner made the semis here two years ago and looks to have a fairly decent draw in the third quarter, one which also contains Cameron Norrie.
While a little tempted by the Italian, 11/2 isn’t exactly a mouthwatering price, especially if you are looking for an each-way bet.
With a quick turnaround also involved this week, I can pass will instead look for a mid-market pick – a tactic which worked well in Monte Carlo where Andrey Rublev was a big-priced winner for this column at 66/1.
I remain convinced that Norrie will put together a good claycourt run at some point this spring but having twice backed the Briton only for him to lose in the first round, I’m finding it hard to go in again.
Instead I think the 33s being dangled about LORENZO MUSETTI looks good.
The Italian surely took much out of last week’s tournament in Monte Carlo where he stunned the top seed and title favourite Novak Djokovic.
Musetti also won three 6-0 sets en route to the quarter-finals.
The worry is that once there he was crushed 6-2 6-2 by Sinner – and the pair could meet at the same stage this week.
Perhaps there’s a bit of a mental issue there, playing the other main rising star of Italian tennis, but having raised my concerns about Sinner, I’m still prepared to have a go with Musetti given what was seen in his other matches last week.
The clay is his best surface, one on which he made his initial breakthrough in Rome in 2020. He was also famously up two sets to love on Djokovic at the 2021 French Open before running out of gas.
With confidence up, let’s take a chance on the 21-year-old.
Up in the top half, KAREN KHACHANOV may be capable of taking advantage if Alcaraz isn’t at the peak of his powers.
I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Khachanov in recent weeks with his run to the semis in Miami and then a decent effort in Monte Carlo.
The Russian beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Ilya Ivashka last week before losing to eventual champ Rublev.
Khachanov has been to the quarter-finals here in the past and has landed in Ruud’s section, which isn’t the strongest.
OK, Nicolas Jarry could be an awkward opening foe but Khachanov won their only previous encounter on clay.
On current form, I’d expect him to take out fellow seed Dan Evans and give Ruud at least a decent match.
A small punt at 33/1 is the call.
BMW Open
- Munich, Germany (outdoor clay)
The top three seeds in Munich will all have taken much out of last week’s Masters event in Monte Carlo.
Holger Rune made the final, Taylor Fritz the semis and while Alex Zverev went out at the last-16 stage, he raised his level significantly on his return to the clay.
A case can be made for each of the trio this week, although it’s also not hard to pick holes in them.
Rune called for the physio during Sunday’s title-match loss to Andrey Rublev and after a big effort in Monaco, it would be no surprise were he to opt out of this event.
Fritz was a surprise semi-finalist, upsetting two-time defending champion Stefanos Tsitspas, but now he’s got to adapt to new conditions – Munich is more than 500m above sea level so altitude is very much in play.
As for Zverev, a two-time winner here, I still want to see more from the German before backing him at 10/3.
Yes, the move onto clay certainly worked for a player who endured a miserable defeat in Miami last month.
But the fact is he still lost to Daniil Medvedev, who isn’t the greatest on the red dirt, and I think there are plenty of players capable of troubling Zverev in this field.
The Monte Carlo performance I’m actually going to pay most attention to this week is that of JAN-LENNARD STRUFF.
He beat Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Alex de Minaur and Casper Ruud in Monte Carlo where it took eventual champion Rublev to end his run at the quarter-final stage.
That will have raised confidence significantly ahead of one of his favourite tournaments of the year.
Munich is the scene of Struff’s only ATP final to date – he made the title match here in 2021, while there’s also one semi-final and two quarter-final appearances (losing to the eventual champ on both occasions) on his CV.
The move up to a decent altitude shouldn’t trouble Struff too much; indeed his strong serve and flat-hit groundstrokes will get that bit more zip from the thinner air.
Admittedly, there are hurdles to overcome – potential second-round opponent Roberto Carballes Baena is another strong player at altitude, as he proved in Marrakech a couple of weeks ago when emerging as champion.
There’s also last year’s runner-up Botic van de Zandschulp in the third quarter.
However, when he’s in the groove, Struff can be a hard player to stop given his power and at 16/1, he looks worth a punt this week.
Admittedly Unibet go slightly bigger but offer just a third of the odds in their each-way terms so I’ll stick with bet365’s market.
Srpska Open
- Banja Luka, Bosnia-Herzegovina (outdoor clay)
We’ve got a new venue on the ATP Tour this week with Banja Luka picking up the baton from Belgrade.
It’s the same drill – outdoor clay – and, as was the case in Serbia, the star attraction is Novak Djokovic.
He’s odds-on at 8/13 to win the title and that price could well shorten if second seed Andrey Rublev withdraws following his title run in Monte Carlo (at time of writing he’s still in the field but was seen holding his back at times during Sunday’s final).
Still, it should be remembered that the world number one was an even-money shot in Monte Carlo last week and duly lost to Lorenzo Musetti, the Serb looking a little rusty in what was his first tournament on clay in more than 10 months.
The plan will be to get plenty more under his belt this week ahead of greater challenges in Madrid and Rome prior to the French Open.
Yet the draw has thrown up a potential problem in his very first match this week.
STAN WAWRINKA is not someone Djokovic would have wanted to face first up and I feel the Swiss is worth a small punt in the outright betting.
Wawrinka and Djokovic had a great rivalry going in the 2014-2016 period when the Swiss proved Djokovic’s nemesis at the Grand Slams, beating him in three of the four with some shot-making of the highest order. He has won four of their last nine.
Injury dulled Wawrinka’s powers and the pair have only met twice since 2016 but there have been some good recent signs that the three-time Slam champion is capable of one last hurrah.
Indoors he made quarter-finals in Rotterdam and Marseille and having moved outdoors he took down Holger Rune with some excellent tennis in Indian Wells.
Last week on his return to the clay, Wawrinka beat TALLON GRIEKSPOOR before losing to Taylor Fritz, who went on to make the semis.
If he does beat Luca van Assche to set up a meeting with Djokovic, Wawrinka will doubtless try an all-out assault with his big groundstroke weapons – that much talked about backhand remains a sight to behold.
If he can execute that game properly, I think he’ll trouble the current version of Djokovic, who is still getting settled on a surface which has to be considered his weakest.
As for the bottom half, the aforementioned Griekspoor is of some interest at 22/1.
While this is a new tournament on the main tour, Banja Luka has been a long-standing stop on the second-tier Challenger Tour.
Looking through the recent results at that event, you find Griekspoor was the champion in 2019 and that will surely help him settle in this week.
The Dutchman made the qaurter-finals in Marrakech to kick off his clay campaign, only losing to the eventual champion Roberto Carballes Baena.
Here he starts against Alexei Popyrin, a player who much prefers a faster surface, while Alex Molcan could follow and he’s someone who is only just back from an injury sustained in Miami.
Borna Coric is the other seed in the quarter but he’s just 7-7 for the season and was pummelled by Nicolas Jarry last week in Monte Carlo.
Even if Rublev shows up, you have to think the motivation won’t be what it was in Monte Carlo, so Griekspoor looks to hold some decent claims in this section.
Posted at 1825 BST on 16/04/23
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