Our Andy Schooler is happy to play some huge prices in Monte Carlo where the first ATP Masters 1000 event of the clay season is being held.
Tennis betting tips: Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters
0.5pt e.w. Andrey Rublev at 125/1 (General)
0.5pt e.w. Francisco Cerundolo at 275/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.5pt e.w. Luciano Darderi at 275/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
I’ve been writing these previews more than 20 years and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen an outright market like the one we have this week heading into the first claycourt Masters event of the season.
Many bookmakers have both Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner at evens or shorter – Unibet have each man odds-on!
Much has been written and said about the dominance of the duo in recent times – including in the column – and it feels very relevant to again mention the fact that when the two of them play, no-one else usually gets a look in.
The statistic in question now shows that when the Big Two have both been in the field, they’ve won 22 of the last 23 such tournaments.
That surely explains the short prices on offer about the world’s top two but, to me, those odds look very short.
Let’s start with Alcaraz, who arrives on the back of a disappointing hardcourt swing in the US where he lost earlier than expected in both Indian Wells (to Daniil Medvedev) and Miami (Seb Korda).
After the latter loss, not for the first time, he opined that rivals always seem to raise their game against him. Welcome to being world number one.
To me, such comments simply suggest a player not in the best frame of mind right now.
Alcaraz may be the defending champion and a claycourt natural but I can’t be backing him at odds-against to win six matches this week.
Opposite things can be said about Sinner.
He was the standout player last month as he became the first man in nine years to complete the ‘Sunshine Double’. In short, form is good.
However, unlike Alcaraz, clay is not Sinner’s natural surface.
Maybe that sounds an odd thing to say about someone who was just a point away from winning the French Open last season but the point is I’d expect him to take longer to adjust to the different surface and he could be vulnerable early on.
Sinner is yet to reach the final in Monte Carlo, which is usually the big guns’ first clay event of the season, and I feel he’ll have a better chance in Madrid and Rome in the weeks to follow, once he’s bedded in.
I doubt the Italian has been practising a great deal on clay this week given his efforts in California and Florida – the Miami final was only a week ago.
Perhaps he will find extra motivation in the fact that he has an opportunity to replace Alcaraz as world number one this week. He needs to reach the semis to stand a chance, while the title would guarantee it.
However, I’m still not convinced this is a good week to be with Sinner at a short price.
For me, this is a tournament where punters should be looking at some big odds – and frankly virtually everyone else is available at them.
Alex Zverev is probably the exception – ‘only’ 14/1.
That also looks on the short side given this is a player who has only twice gone beyond the third round here in nine visits and has never played in the final.
Instead, I’m happy to take some long shots in this event. After all, Fabio Fognini won here in 2019, while Dusan Lajovic, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Lorenzo Musetti have all made the final at decent prices in recent years.
I did consider Musetti again this year but he’s struggled to recover from an early-season injury. He lost his opener in Indian Wells and then withdrew from Miami. I’d definitely want to see him play before getting involved in the outright market.
Another player who struggled on the US hardcourt swing was ANDREY RUBLEV but I’m more inclined to give him a chance here – especially at a whopping 125/1.
I remember backing him here three years ago at a chunky price when he won the title. That was actually his second final appearance after he also appeared in it in 2021.
Rublev’s struggles in Indian Wells and Miami should not really have come as a great shock given his relatively poor record at those tournaments.
But we’ve seen that he has become a player for certain courses, as I mentioned during the events in the Middle East where he was a semi-finalist in both Doha and Dubai earlier this season.
This is another domain he’s performed well at over the years and I put that down to his propensity for the clay – I think he’s much more at home on this surface than many of his peers and I feel he can hit the ground running this week.
Rublev is in the third quarter of the draw, alongside Zverev and compatriot Medvedev, who certainly isn’t a natural on the clay.
It looks a section he could emerge from, although, of course, Sinner could be waiting at the semi-final stage.
However, I’ve already made the point that the Italian could be vulnerable early on and a look at the draw helps show why.
Sinner’s second match could be against either FRANCISCO CERUNDOLO or Stefanos Tsitsipas, who meet in what looks the pick of the first-round matches.
I couldn’t put anyone off backing Tsitsipas at 150/1. After all, he’s a three-time champion in Monte Carlo and he will doubtless have his backers.
The Greek has already beaten Taylor Fritz, Medvedev and Alex de Minaur this season so there have been signs that his game is returning to the levels that once saw him reach the heights of third in the world rankings.
However, I’m just taken by Cerundolo’s form which, crucially, includes claycourt wins under the belt.
The Argentine has already won the title in Buenos Aires this year, while he was also a semi-finalist in Santiago. More recently, he reached the quarter-finals in Miami so should arrive here in good stead.
His clubbing forehand has the ability to punch holes in opponents’ defence, even on the slow clay, and while his record here is only 3-3, he’s faced some tricky opponents, including eventual champion Alcaraz last year, a match he actually led after the first set.
Cerundolo has been to a Masters semi-final before – and two other quarter-finals – on the European clay and looks to have the profile of a player who could threaten Sinner if they do meet in round three.
Finally, in the top half, I’m going to take a punt on LUCIANO DARDERI.
He’s another who has already won plenty of matches on this surface so far in 2026, capturing the Santiago title and finishing runner-up to Cerundolo in Buenos Aires.
At time of writing, he’s in the semi-finals in Marrakech, too.
That latter run may be a concern to some, although he had a first-round bye and a quarter-final walkover (when this column’s pick Yannick Hanfmann withdrew due to illness) so it’s not been a particularly taxing week.
He’ll need to recalibrate after coming down from a significant altitude in Morocco but Darderi is an old-school dirtballer, who should revel in the sluggish conditions – temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to high teens throughout the week so it’s unlikely to be speedy and should suit Darderi’s grinding game.
Darderi has an out-of-sorts Hubert Hurkacz to deal with first and then possibly Jakub Mensik, although both men will see their big serves blunted somewhat by the clay. Fellow Italian Musetti could follow.
I think that’s an OK draw for a player high on confidence, one ready to take the next step which is to make an impact on one of these clay Masters 1000s.
Worth a small punt at 275/1 is the verdict.
Posted at 12:55 BST on 04/04/26
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling.
Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.