Andy Schooler has already landed a 13/2 winner at the Miami Open and has a 9/1 shot still running. Here’s his preview of Friday’s semi-finals.
Tennis betting tips: Miami Open semi-finals
1pt Alex Zverev to serve over 1.5 double faults at 10/11 (Paddy Power, bet365)
Jiri Lehecka v Arthur Fils (1900 GMT)
Friday’s two semi-finals in Miami look tricky for a similar reason.
All four players have served very well at the tournament so far – between them they have been broken only twice in a combined 16 matches.
However, now we have two head-to-head match-ups which have consistently provided plenty of service breaks.
Let’s start with this first semi-final which sees Fils start a narrow favourite.
The Frenchman is a tad fortunate to be here – he needed to save four match points in his quarter-final victory over Tommy Paul on Wednesday night – but there’s no doubt his game is in great shape and it has been for a while now.
From what I’ve seen, his defensive skills look to be getting better and better, with his court coverage continuing to improve.
I suspect that’s an area which could prove crucial to the outcome of this one, although Lehecka is not without hope.
He’s also playing very well from the back of the court and, like Fils, he is yet to have his serve broken in Miami.
The problem is that Fils has got stuck into that delivery in the past, breaking 10 times across their three previous meetings.
Fils leads 2-1 overall with their most recent clash coming only last month in Doha where he eased to a 6-3 6-3 victory, a match featuring seven breaks of serve.
Across the three matches, Fils has held serve 85% of the time and broken in 25% of return games.
It has played quicker than I expected in Miami, which could make things tougher for Fils this time around, but he’s clearly not had too much trouble in dealing with the Lehecka serve and I feel he’s the right favourite.
The sheer number of breaks in those previous matches put me off the tie-break markets, which I was naturally drawn to by how the pair have served this week.
Instead, for a potential bet, it’s worth considering Lehecka aces.
His line is set at 7.5, something he cleared with something to spare in the pair’s first two matches (total of 12 and 15).
He got nowhere near in Doha (only 2) but the slower conditions there would have contributed, while they only played two sets on that day.
Lehecka has served 8+ in each of the last three rounds here too.
Alex Zverev v Jannik Sinner (2300 GMT)
As I wrote in Indian Wells, Zverev has caused Sinner problems in the past.
But that’s rapidly becoming the distant past.
Sinner has won the last six meetings and, notably, the last three (all played in recent months) have been straight-sets blowouts.
Indeed, Zverev has failed to break the Sinner serve in four of their last five matches which has to be a huge concern for the German.
Sinner is even money to hold serve throughout this contest, something he’s managed in three of his four matches in Miami, only losing his delivery once to Alex Michelsen on a day he wasn’t at his best.
He put that right on Thursday by swatting aside Frances Tiafoe and one suspects he will head into this contest having already won the mental battle.
In many times over the years, Zverev hasn’t been able to execute in the biggest moments and Sinner’s recent hold over him seems likely continue here.
In terms of a bet, outright followers will still have 9/1 running on Sinner to win the tournament in straight sets.
He’s just 8/15 to win this match 2-0 and would surely go off shorter than that against Fils or Lehecka if he makes Sunday’s final. Essentially, that 9/1 shot is into even money at best.
I therefore don’t feel the need to find a Sinner angle here but I will return to that point about Zverev and his big-match mentality.
The pressure Sinner will put on his serve will be big here – certainly bigger than anything he’s faced so far in Miami – and that can lead to double faults.
It’s an area of his game that Zverev has tidied up well in recent years but that pressure the top players apply will likely see him having to go for the lines more or hit the ball that bit harder.
Zverev is 10/11 to serve over 1.5 double faults and I’m happy to play that.
He’s managed this in nine of his previous 11 meetings with Sinner with the two ‘misses’ both coming indoors. There’s no roof here and, indeed, the Florida breeze has caused a few issues this week.
I think it’s also worth mentioning that it’s also occurred in nine of Zverev’s 13 matches against Carlos Alcaraz, another player who has that bit extra on return.
Posted at 10:25 GMT on 27/03/26
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