Andy Schooler made a strong start to the Miami Open with two winners in round one. Here are his picks for the second-round action.
Tennis betting tips: Miami Open round two
1pt Joao Fonseca to win a set v Carlos Alcaraz at 7/4 (William Hill, 888sport)
1pt over 22.5 games in Roberto Bautista Agut v Karen Khachanov at evens (General)
2pts over 0.5 tie-breaks in Brandon Nakashima v Marin Cilic at 3/4 (BetMGM, Virgin Bet)
1pt over 12.5 games in first set of Nakashima v Cilic at 21/10 (BetMGM, Virgin Bet)
Carlos Alcaraz v Joao Fonseca (Fri)
A couple of weeks ago we got Fonseca v Jannik Sinner in Indian Wells; now we get the rising Brazilian star against world number one Alcaraz.
Sadly, I picked the wrong bet for that Sinner clash, although Fonseca’s display justified my faith in him – he lost in two tie-breaks, missing three set points in the first of them, which would have landed our bet.
An excellent shot-maker, Fonseca is a player who won’t be cowed by big-name opponents and indeed I believe this is the sort of match which brings out the best in him.
The night atmosphere in Miami, where the underdog will receive huge support, could also work in his favour.
I always feel Alcaraz is more prone to a mid-match dip than the more consistent Sinner and while it’s far from beyond the realms of possibility that this is a blowout, what we’ve seen from Fonseca recently suggests it won’t be.
Admittedly, I was going to go down the game handicap route this time but the price on the +5.5 line has been cut since I started writing this preview.
I’m therefore going back to the bet which narrowly lost in Indian Wells and that’s Fonseca to win a set – he’s 7/4 this time.
Roberto Bautista Agut v Karen Khachanov (Fri)
I think RBA is an interesting underdog on the second-round coupon.
The veteran Spaniard is a former semi-finalist in Miami and while it’s fair to say his best days are behind him, he has shown he’s still capable of competing with the elite – take his recent match with Jack Draper in Indian Wells, which the Briton had to come from a set down to win.
Notably, Bautista Agut is 6-5 up on the head-to-head v Khachanov. Dig deeper and you find he’s 4-0 up on outdoor hardcourts.
While he’s no longer at a level which took him into the top 10 at one stage, that does show he’s been able to cause Khachanov a lot of problems.
The Russian has struggled for wins so far this season and is just 6-6 in 2026. He has only one top-50 win and the matches he’s won have often been a long, hard struggle – both players have won a set in nine of those 12, while only one of his victories has come in straight sets.
Khachanov’s serve has kept him in matches – he’s holding at 89% this season – and has also led to plenty of tie-breaks. Seven of his 12 matches have featured one, including the last four.
There are plenty of options here in betting terms.
Both players to win a set looks a bit of value at 13/8, while I must admit I am tempted by RBA to win the match (13/5) or a set (evens).
However, given the numbers I’ve highlighted, I’m going to go with over 22.5 games at evens which factors in the potential for a three-setter or a tight two-set match featuring another breaker.
Brandon Nakashima v Marin Cilic (Sat)
Long-term readers will know I like a tie-break bet and this match looks ripe for the picking.
Both men are holding serve 91% of the time so far in 2026, while their previous meetings have seen serve dominate.
They’ve played twice, winning once each, and there has been just one break of serve. As you can probably figure out from that, three of their four sets have gone to a tie-break, including both they played up the Florida coast in Delray Beach last month.
Over 1.5 tie-breaks here is a 7/2 chance with bet365, who also go 5/6 about under 2.5 breaks of serve. I wouldn’t put anyone off backing those.
However, I’m going to go for a tie-break in the match at 3/4 and also over 12.5 games in the first set at 21/10. Both are with those bookies who use the Kambi sportsbook, which include BetMGM.
For those seeking an alternative, the score to be 3-3 after six games looks decent at 5/6, a market offered by more firms, including Sky Bet.
That’s been the outcome in both previous meetings of the pair.
Posted at 11:15 GMT on 20/03/26
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