After a profitable third round, Andy Schooler previews the last-16 action at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells.
Tennis betting tips: Indian Wells last 16
1pt Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to beat Learner Tien at 11/10 (General)
0.5pt Joao Fonseca to win a set v Jannik Sinner at 12/5 (William Hill, BetMGM, 888sport)
Learner Tien v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (Tue)
Davidovich Fokina claimed the upset win over Jakub Mensik in the last round, delivering this column a winner.
Tien did likewise by defeating Ben Shelton, although the latter looked under weather and clearly wasn’t at his best.
Tien made hard work of it, allowing Shelton to force a deciding set when he looked in control, and he’ll have been disappointed with some aspects of his game, including an unforced error count that was just one less than his ill opponent.
Admittedly, his serve held up pretty well – bar that second-set wobble – although Fokina did take that apart when the pair met last summer in Washington, winning 6-2 6-2 in what remains their only meeting thus far.
There will be slower conditions here and these two will be content to play plenty of long rallies from the back of the court.
But ADF won’t be fazed by that. I’m a little surprised he’s the outsider here and will back him accordingly.
Joao Fonseca v Jannik Sinner (Tue)
When I wrote about Fonseca’s chances in 2026 before the season began, this was exactly the sort of match which enthused me.
It will be the Brazilian’s first meeting with either of the ‘Big Two’ and a real roadmarker for his progress.
Maybe he’s not ready to compete at the highest level. After all, the start of his season was delayed by injury and he lost three of his first four matches.
However, he’s looked much better in Indian Wells where the conditions appear to suit and allow his shot-making ability to come to the fore. Tommy Paul was brutally dismissed in the last round.
Of course, this is another step up but it can certainly be argued that Sinner has not been at his top level so far this season with surprise defeats to Novak Djokovic in Melbourne and Jakub Mensik in Doha already on his record.
I think this is a match Fonseca has been relishing for some time and the sluggish night-session conditions should only help his cause.
As big as 9/1 for victory, I definitely believe he’s capable of keeping things close. A game handicap of +5.5 could well be overcome but I’m tempted to back him to win a set at 12/5.
Posted at 09:55 GMT on 10/03/26
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