Andy Schooler brings you his best bets for day one of Wimbledon 2025.
Tennis betting tips: Wimbledon Monday
1.5pts Mackenzie McDonald (+5.5) to beat Karen Khachanov on the game handicap at 5/6 (Sky Bet, Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt over 39.5 games in Holger Rune v Nicolas Jarry at 5/6 (BoyleSports)
0.5pt Tallon Griekspoor to beat Jenson Brooksby 3-0 at 3/1 (bet365)
Mackenzie McDonald v Karen Khachanov
McDonald is a player who has always delivered his best results of the faster surfaces and conditions should be slick on the opening day of the tournament with the fresh grass being aided by temperatures which are set to go well into the 30s.
I’m finding it a little strange that he’s out at 7/2 to win this given he pushed Khachanov to a final-set tie-break in Den Bosch only a few weeks ago.
The American qualified there – and at Queen’s Club where he beat Gael Monfils and took a set off Holger Rune.
The reason for the price is probably the head-to-head record which Khachanov now leads 5-0 but look closely and the matches have always been closely contested.
Three have seen McDonald win a set and the other two have both seen Khachanov claim a tie-break en route to victory. The widest margin of victory in any set has been 6-3, while four of the five matches have featured a breaker.
Khachanov has also never won a Wimbledon first-round match in straight sets in five visits.
Given all this, I like McDonald’s chances on the handicap where he gets a 5.5-game start.
Holger Rune v Nicolas Jarry
Jarry has just come through qualifying where he posted three straight-sets wins without dropping serve and delivering 39 aces.
The Chilean’s first serve has always been a big weapon and it won 84% of points in qualifying with the second serve winning 61% - also impressive.
Of course, the quality rises here but Rune isn’t really at home on this surface. He played only one warm-up event, making the quarter-finals at Queen’s but it wasn’t the most impressive display.
After beating lucky loser Christopher O’Connell, the Dane needed three sets to defeat Mackenzie McDonald and then lost to veteran Roberto Bautista Agut.
The day-one conditions and weather should give the Jarry serve that extra bit of zip and a player who took a set off Carlos Alcaraz here two years ago can cause problems here.
Admittedly, Rune did win their only previous meeting – indoors in Basel last year – in straight sets, but that match featured only one break of serve and I’d expect tight sets again here.
With that in mind, I’m going to head to the total-games market and back over 39.5.
Jarry will need to win a set but that serve is more than capable of keeping him competitive and it’s worth noting that the majority of his matches this season have featured a tie-break – there were two when he faced world number one Jannik Sinner at the Australian Open.
Jenson Brooksby v Tallon Griekspoor
I struggled to find an underdog I was particularly confident about on day one so for a big price on Monday I’m going to try something a little different.
I suspect many British viewers will have watched Jenson Brooksby make the Eastbourne final last week (after losing in qualifying) and he certainly played some good tennis in the windy conditions at Devonshire Park.
However, at the same time, Griekspoor was storming to the title in Mallorca where conditions were arguably more like what we’ll see at the All England Club with temperatures well above 30C.
The Dutchman’s strong serve has been mentioned many times in this column and it was again prominent in Mallorca where he lost serve only once in his four matches. It was also notable that he did better than usual on return, only playing one tie-break. He’s now won 15 of his last 20 grasscourt matches going back to the start of 2023.
Brooksby’s strength is the opposite – he’s better on return and his serve can be vulnerable, as was shown in Eastbourne where he was broken 15 times in his seven matches (including qualifiers).
Having not played Griekspoor before and with the heat giving the Dutchman’s serve that bit extra, the American may well struggle to break here and I’m tempted to back Griekspoor to win in straight sets to small stakes. He’s 3/1 to do so.
Brooksby has lost eight of his last nine matches in which he’s lost the first set and in all eight he’s been beaten in straight sets.
- Preview posted 1300 BST on 29/06/2025
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